WDT Seymour: Revisionist history on NY-23 race

The Watertown Times' political writer Jude Seymour dissects RNC chairman Michael Steel's new book and finds "a bit of revisionist history when it comes to discussing the 23rd Congressional District special election."

Seymour's biggest beef is with Steele's claim that Republican Dede Scozzafava was chosen as part of a backroom deal by Republican chairman and wasn't "suited" to the district.

She received the same level of support from voters in the 2008 election as former Rep. John McHugh did in the 122nd Assembly District.

She was for the Employee Free Choice Act, which Mr. McHugh supported. She was for abortion rights, as was Mr. McHugh. She was against cap-and-trade, which Mr. McHugh was criticized for supporting.

Seymour's full article is worth reading. Steele's attempt to wrestle with the NY-23 race in his book shows just how big a deal this continues to be within the Republican movement.

If there's one big thing that could trip up the GOP in 2010, it will be repeats of NY-23. And Republicans still aren't sure what went wrong.

New York State Board of Elections speaks to NY23 vote concerns

The BOE issued the following statement, addressing concerns raised about the fairness of the vote in the 23rd congressional race. It's lengthy, but seems worth quoting in detail.

For more about this, see David Sommerstein's story on our home page.

The New York State Board of Elections Director of Public Information has issued the following statement on behalf of the Board in reaction to an article from a newspaper in the state's North Country:

An article in the Gouverneur Times as to the, as of yet uncertified results in the 23rd Congressional District contains numerous false assertions and allegations.

There was no virus in the voting machines on Election Day in the 23rd District or anywhere else. The article is full of inaccurate information and unfortunately quoted a single word from a commissioner who mischaracterized the issue in question.

The State Board has already acknowledged there was a software problem identified during our mandatory pre-election testing regimen prior to Election Day. The problem centered on races which were composed of multi-candidate formats which allow voters to vote for more than one candidate in a given race. For example, in judicial races the voter is often allowed to vote for 3 out of 5 candidates or 2 out of 4, etc., or in a town where there are "at large" districts. The source code did not allow for enough memory in these contests and caused the scanners to freeze during operation. The Counties experiencing the problem were notified prior to Election Day and the voting systems were corrected and re-tested and the corrective action was applied successfully in those areas.

However, the human review of the software problem did not adequately identify every machine that had the problem and, as a result, there were some scanners which did freeze on Election Day. When these scanners froze, the local boards implemented procedures according to state law and Board of Elections regulations. These procedures do not allow for new changes on Election Day, so inoperative scanners were taken out of operation and emergency ballots were cast and counted in those areas according to existing procedures.

This problem was discussed in numerous press reports around the state and was openly discussed at the November 10th State Board of Elections meeting by the Commissioners and the Director of Election Operations.

With regard to the use of USB ports, there is a single USB port on the ImageCast scanner. Pursuant to state Election Law 7-202(t) the port does not permit any "functionality potentially capable of externally transmitting or receiving data via the internet, via radio waves or via other wireless means." The port is sealed, is not accessible and has no capability for any exchange of information. The scanners do not operate like personal computers. Any device, such as a flash drive, placed in the port will not be recognized.

In addition, from the time the pre-election testing is completed until Election Day morning the machines are in the care, custody and control of the local board of elections. The machines as a group are under lock and key. Individually, the critical areas of the machine are covered in tamper-evident seals which are numbered and logged. Any broken seal will be investigated and the machine re-tested prior to any further use. Any broken seal discovered on Election Day will cause the scanner to be taken out of service immediately. The inspectors then follow long-established procedures to go to emergency ballots, until an alternate scanner can be deployed.

Lastly, any reference to a slot that is accessible to voters and poll workers for stuffing the ballot box is inaccurate information. A gap between the scanning device and the ballot box was discovered during functional testing of the ballot marking devices more than a year ago. Every machine in use on Election Day was retrofitted to completely block access to that gap. Prior to completion of the retrofit last year the gap was blocked by a tamper-evident numbered security seal. As stated earlier, any broken seal would cause the removal of a scanner from use immediately.

In addition, from the time they are created up to and including final storage, all election materials paper and machines are secured and tracked in a chain of custody by the local board of elections. All ballots voted, unvoted and spoiled must be accounted for throughout the election process.

Despite the numerous misstatements of fact in the above mentioned article, the results in the 23rd Congressional District, and all other contests in counties which utilized optical scan voting machines, will have been canvassed and audited pursuant to state Election Law, and will be certified in due course. In the end, the new optical scan voting systems guarantee we have ballots as marked by voters ensuring that every vote is counted.

ACORN: we were not in NY-23

Following Doug Hoffman's vote tampering accusations made in this fundraising letter, I was wondering if ACORN actually did anything during the 23rd district campaign.

Spokesman Jonathan Rosen sent me this response via e-mail:

ACORN has no members, leaders or staff in NY-23 and had no involvement in the recent Congressional election there and Doug Hoffman knows it. This is a desperate attack by a sore loser.

Doug Hoffman's letter

Here is the letter, posted originally on Doug Hoffman's website:

Dear Fellow Conservative,

As evidence surfaces, we find out that reported results from election night were far from accurate. ACORN and the unions did their best to try and sway the results to Obamacare supporter Bill Owens.

I was forced to concede after receiving two pieces of grim news - - down 5,335 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted on election night - and barely won my stronghold in Oswego County.

On Election Night, the information we received was far different from what we received this week!

Rest assured, they will not succeed, and I am therefore revoking my statement of concession.

That is why I am writing you today.

Recent developments leave me to wonder who is scheming behind closed doors, twisting arms and stealing elections from the voters of NY-23.

I'm sure you are as dismayed as I am to learn of the mischief that took place in Oswego and neighboring counties. We know this would not be the first time for the ACORN faithful to tamper with democracy.

Now it's time to actually count every legal ballot and I need your help to ensure the people of NY-23 get the Congressman THEY ELECTED. Please donate now to help me ensure every vote is counted!

A recanvassing in the 11-county district shows Owens' lead has narrowed to 3,026. In Oswego County, I was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, but inspectors found I actually won by 1,748 votes

Let’s force them keep this recanvassing active! Let’s give this election a chance to end differently!

Oswego County elections officials blame the mistakes on "chaos" in their call-in center that included a phone system foul-up, and on inspectors who read numbers incorrectly when phoning in results. This sounds like a tactic right from the ACORN playbook.

The district's second biggest voter turnout was in Jefferson County, where I had also benefited from a turnaround since election night, gaining another 700 votes. Owens led by 300 votes on the final election night tally, but after recanvassing, I'm now leading by 424 votes.

Jerry Eaton, the Republican elections commissioner for Jefferson County, said inspectors found a problem in four districts where my vote total was mistakenly entered as zero.

The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which the state Board of Elections distributed about 10,200.

The people of NY-23 deserve to have their ballots counted properly, but we can't let ACORN or the unions keep that from happening. They have more lawyers and more experience tampering with democracy.

State Board of Elections Communications Director John Conklin said the state sent a letter to the House Clerk last week explaining that no winner had been determined in the 23rd District.

Now it's time to actually count every legal ballot and I need your help to ensure the people of NY-23 get the Congressman THEY ELECTED. Please donate now to help me ensure every vote is counted!

We need to make sure that fair elections are a reality in NY-23, just like our Founding Fathers envisioned. So long as we remain the "land of the free," we MUST ensure every vote is counted.
Help us today so we may be the first of many conservative victories during the Obama Regime.

Yours in Freedom,

Doug Hoffman

Did Team Hoffman "panic" on election night?

The Washington Independent is asking why Doug Hoffman conceded so quickly on election night, with thousands of uncounted ballots and plenty of questions still unanswered.

Why did Hoffman concede in the first place? That I’d credit to the campaign’s overconfidence. They went into election day planning for a clear victory...

When votes started coming in far, far below their expectations, they lost hope very quickly.

Hoffman himself was so devastated during his election night speech that he temporarily forgot to mention that he was conceding the election — Mike Long ran onstage with a note reminding him to — and he left the election party making no more statements to the press.

Simply put, I think Hoffman panicked on election night and is now honestly, frantically trying to undo a mistake. I don’t know if he or his team realize the long-term political damage of this.

This read of election night squares with my experience.

When I arrived at Hoffman HQ, the mood wasn't just buoyant, it was certain.

Rob Ryan, Doug Hoffman's spokesman, boasted to reporters that he was wearing his RINO tie, a kind of victory trophy for having shoved Dede Scozzafava aside.

(Hoffman's failure to reach out to Scozzafava after she withdrew may have cost him the election.)

When the vote started coming in, with Bill Owens actually leading, people at the Hotel Saranac were shocked and devastated.

One Hoffman supporter pointed out to me quietly that Hoffman had lost his home town of Saranac Lake, where he grew up and stationed his campaign office.

Put simply, the Conservatives were expecting a coronation. As I've written before, I expected the same thing.

But voters get the final say. And unless Mr. Hoffman can provide evidence to the contrary, the voters have spoken plainly.

The Palin-Hoffman Credibility Gap

There's been a lot of ink spilled the last few weeks about what turns people off about the "conservative" message carried by Doug Hoffman and Sarah Palin.

Here's my beef in a nutshell.

When Palin was governor of Alaska, her state led the nation in the amount of porkbarrel spending and earmarks, which she now attacks.

Alaska also led the nation in the amount of Federal spending per capita, gobbling up nearly $2 for every $1 the state's residents paid in taxes.

(Most "liberal" states, like New York, actually receive less money back in spending than we pay in taxes.)

Her state (where I lived most of my life) has never been a libertarian, moose-hunting frontier.

On the contrary. It is a place that symbolizes the kind of "rural socialism" that dominates much of small town America.

The same rural socialism is endemic here in the North Country, where 45% of the take-home pay is supplied by taxpayers -- most of them living elsewhere.

Mr. Hoffman himself began his public career as CFO for the 1980 Olympic Games, which had to be bailed out by taxpayers to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.

During the campaign I asked him repeatedly what Federal programs he would cut to reduce government spending in the district.

I thought it would be a chip shot. After all, reducing the Federal deficit was the cornerstone of the Hoffman campaign.

But he could cite only two examples: a schoolyard paving project in Lake Clear and the general concept of "earmarks."

He declined to name a single major spending program (healthcare for the region's elderly? stimulus money for rebuilding the Crown Point bridge?) that he would condemn or substantially reduce.

But the truth -- as any serious person knows -- is that smaller government is impossible without cutting three major programs: national defense and intelligence, social security, and medicare.

(Earmarks represent roughly 1% of the Federal budget.)

The irony is that there's only one politician in New York (in the country?) who's actually talking about making substantive cuts to government.

That's Democratic governor David Paterson. And unlike Palin, he didn't quit.

Until the conservative movement can develop a coherent and credible platform, one that goes beyond the "I want to give you your money back" slogans, the credibility gap will continue to grow.

Mr. Hoffman flirts with irresponsible politics

The Watertown Daily Times is reporting on Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman's claim in a fundraising letter that “ACORN, the unions and the Democratic Party” “tampered” with results to deny him victory.

Jude Seymour's article continues with this:

Mr. Hoffman provided no evidence to support his claims, but asked fellow conservatives to send donations his way to “ensure every vote is counted.”

Jerry O. Eaton, Jefferson County Republican elections commissioner, called Mr. Hoffman's assertion “absolutely false.”

George Williams, Oswego County Republican chairman, also rejected Mr. Hoffman's claims.

Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan declined to offer support for claims that anything undue had occurred during the NY-23 balloting.

“When and if we challenge the election, we will lay out the evidence on these matters,” he said.

To make such an explosive claim in a fundraising letter -- and then to decline to offer evidence -- is, in a word, irresponsible.

Mr. Hoffman came remarkably close to winning a seat in Congress and appears to have a bright political future ahead of him, should he choose to stay in the game.

But making reckless claims of this kind can only harm his own credibility, a credibility already frayed by his close association with figures like Glenn Beck.

Hoffman "un-concedes"

Conservative Doug Hoffman says he's "un-conceding" the North Country's Congressional race that ended two weeks ago.

He made his remarks today on Glenn Beck's radio show.

Democrat Bill Owens was unofficially declared the winner of the race with about 5,000 more votes than Hoffman. That margin has narrowed, but Owens is still around 3,000 ahead of his Conservative opponent.

Hoffman is looking at absentee ballots and says there's a long shot he could still pull off a victory in this race. Approximately 10,000 absentee ballots went out. It's not clear how many were returned.

Counting of these ballots begins today. Results aren't expected until Thursday, at the earliest.

Tune in to All Before Five today to hear parts of Hoffman's conversation with Glenn Beck.

Frum on NY-23 and the conservative dilemma

David Frum is a staunch conservative - and a great critic of the conservative movement's recent melodramas.

In a column for CNN, he puts the NY-23 race in a national context, and includes this gem:

A few days ago, I was talking to a roomful of young conservatives about the crisis. All agreed in denouncing both the bank bailouts done under TARP and the stimulus. I asked: OK fine -- what was the alternative?

There was a short pause, and then somebody laughed: "I guess it's lucky that we weren't in power."

That's not much of a motto for a would-be national governing coalition. If all we conservatives have to offer is oppositionism, then opposition is the job we'll be assigned to fill.

Read the entire essay here.

NY-23 count tightens a little bit

UPDATE: The latest returns from the BOE come via Jude Seymour and the WDT. They show Owens with a 3,176 vote lead.

The 23rd Congressional district special election lives on! And not just in Monday morning quarterbacking.

Turns out the state Board of Elections is still counting the votes, and Conservative Doug Hoffman has reduced the margin he trails Democrat Bill Owens to some 3,026 votes. It was 5,335 votes at the end of election night. The Syracuse Post-Standard has led the pack on this story. In the article, BOE spokesman John Conklin explains how Owens came to be sworn in, even though a winner still hasn't been certified:

Conklin said the state sent a letter to the House Clerk last week explaining that no winner had been determined in the 23rd District, and therefore the state had not certified the election. But the letter noted that Owens still led by about 3,000 votes, and that the special election was not contested -- two factors that legally allowed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to swear in Owens on Friday.

"We sent a letter to the clerk laying out the totals," Conklin said. "The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed."

We know that Owens was one of two Democrats who cast the decisive vote passing the health care bill. Nancy Pelosi's motives are clear, but you gotta wonder...aren't there rules about when you can swear in a member of Congress?

UPDATE: NPR's Ken Rudin e-mailed me to say it's perfectly legal to swear in a Congressman before the vote is certified:

You don't have to wait for a certification to be sworn in; for instance, Pawlenty could have sworn in a senator in Minnesota before the state certified a winner. Nor does a concession mean you can't ultimately be the winner. Pelosi obviously needed as many votes as she could get for health care, and that's why she was anxious to get those two more votes. It was smart and clever, and she didn't skirt the law.

We'll have more on this story today on All Before Five.

Did Bill Owens win NY-23?

The Syracuse Post-Standard is reporting today that the recount of the NY-23 election appears to be tightening substantially.

On election night, Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded, when it appeared that he was down by roughly 5,000 votes. Bill Owens, the Democrat, has since been sworn in and begun casting votes in Congress.

Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.

With roughly 10,000 absentee ballots still to be tallied, it's certainly statistically possible for the outcome to be reversed. What would that mean?

This from John Conklin, spokesman for the New York State Board of Elections:

"The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed."

How long will "Scozzafava" remain a verb?

While Doug Hoffman has been pretty quiet post-NY-23, Dede Scozzafava, who didn't even finish the race, has become a national figure - and figure of speech.

Check out the interviews with the Washington Post ("My name's a verb now."), and with CNN and MSNBC, below.

The small-town Assemblywoman and former Gouverneur mayor has become a national symbol of the Republican Party, and she doesn't seem to be resisting. In fact, given the bright lights and baiting by the likes of John Roberts and Rachel Maddow, one thing we can say: Scozzafava is articulate, confident, and sticks to her message on the national stage.

So is she the flavor of the week? Will the GOP forget Dede Scozzafava by next month, let alone next November? Or will conservatives take to trying to "Scozzafava" other moderate lawmakers across the country? Will moderates coalesce around the likes of Dede Scozzafava?

If so, the candidate who dropped out - rather than the winner - could be the lasting legacy of the 23rd Congressional district special election.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Scozzafava loses GOP leadership post

New York's Republican Assembly minority leader, Brian Kolb, today announced that he is punishing Dede Scozzafava for her decision to back a Democrat in last week's NY-23 special election.

Here's the statement released by Kolb:

"Today, I had a thorough and frank discussion with Assemblywoman Scozzafava. As a result, Dede has tendered, and I accepted, her resignation as our Conference's Leader Pro Tempore. Over the coming weeks, I will be assessing who will serve as our Conference's next Leader Pro Tempore to lead our Assembly floor debates."

This is a significant blow to Scozzafava, costing her financially as well as in terms of prestige and influence.

She was the first woman in the history of the Assembly to hold the leadership spot.

The New York Daily News questions whether Scozzafava will continue to caucus with Republicans, or indeed if she will seek re-election in 2010.

NCPR has attempted to contact Assemblywoman Scozzafava through the day. We'll bring you her perspectives on this as soon as possible.

Monday a day of reckoning for Scozzafava, Republicans

Monday could be a historic day in the North Country's political culture.

Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, deeply unhappy with the GOP for its epic disloyalty to her campaign, will meet with GOP leaders.

They, meanwhile, are deeply unhappy with her for what they perceive as her epic disloyalty to the Republican Party, for endorsing Democrat Bill Owens.

At stake is Scozzafava's role as the first woman ever to hold the floor-leader position in the New York state Assembly. This from POLITICO:

POLITICO has learned that Kolb will announce after the face-to-face meeting whether Scozzafava, the Minority Leader Pro Tempore, will remain as the GOP floor leader.

“Fundamentally my members are very disappointed with her endorsement of Bill Owens and aiding him in helping achieve the Nancy Pelosi health care plan in Washington,” Kolb said.

In interviews with NCPR, Scozzafava has expressed deep anger toward party officials and conservative activists for side-swiping her campaign.

But the fury towards her also continues unabated. Here's a quote from Politico:

“I campaigned for her. I played the loyal soldier and held my nose as I worked for her and then what does she do?” said Jefferson County Republican Party Chairman Donald Coon. “She doesn’t care about the GOP. She doesn’t care about the people who worked for her. She just cares about herself.”

Where does this end? Will Scozzafava accept the humiliation (and financial blow) of being demoted?

Will Republican leaders accept that enough damage has already been done by all sides in this bloody intra-party feud?

And what role will Scozzafava's allies -- in particular North Country Assemblywoman Janet Duprey and Teresa Sayward -- play in the process?

Aftershocks from NY-23 continue...

Frank Rich does an NY-23 post-mortem

Here's Frank Rich's take on what he views as the bursting of the Hoffman phenomenon bubble -- and his from-afar view of the North Country:

This race was a damaging setback for the hard right. Hoffman had the energetic support of Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Fox as well as big bucks from their political auxiliaries.

Furthermore, Hoffman was running not only in a district that Rove himself described as “very Republican” but one that fits the demographics of the incredibly shrinking G.O.P.

The 23rd is far whiter than America as a whole — 93 percent versus 74 — with tiny sprinklings of blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

It has few immigrants. It’s rural. Its income and education levels are below the norm.

Only if the district were situated in Dixie — or Utah — could it be a more perfect fit for the narrow American demographic where the McCain-Palin ticket had its sole romps last year.

If the tea party right can’t win there, imagine how it might fare in the nation where most Americans live. Some G.O.P. leaders have started to notice...

In the aftermath of this clear-cut demonstration of how Republicans can win, the revolutionaries are still pledging to purge the party’s moderates by rallying behind more Hoffmans in G.O.P. primaries from Florida to California.

And they may get some scalps. But Tuesday’s loss revealed that they’re better at luring freak-show gawkers into Fox’s tent than voters into the G.O.P.’s.

Owens "rain checks" Obama

This from Politico.

Watch video: Owens sworn in, uses speech to lament shootings at Fort Hood

"My thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families," Rep. Owens said, referring to the tragedy at the Fort Hood Army base. Owens himself is a former Air Force captain.

He also thanked his family -- who received a standing ovation -- and promised to seek bipartisan solutions to America's problem.

Watch the full video here.

How will North Country Dems vote on health care?

Freshly-sworn-in Rep. Bill Owens is a firm Yes on the health care reform package in the House.

Rep. Mike Arcuri, whose district includes the area around Old Forge, and Rep. Scott Murphy from Glens Falls still haven't signed on.

From the NY Observer:

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has said "we're very close" to getting the 218 votes needed to pass the bill. Several other upstate Democrats in the House--Dan Maffei, Mike Arcuri and Scott Murphy--are undecided on the bill.

In a vote this close, the North Country seats that Dems have picked up since 2006 (Arcuri, Murphy, Owens) could make a difference.

How well did Doug Hoffman do?

There's a lot of debate out there in the blogosphere about just how well Conservative Party phenom Doug Hoffman fared on Tuesday.

By the most important standard -- going to Congress -- he lost. It's also fair to argue that he helped mightily to elect a Democrat, Bill Owens.

Owens is now promising to vote for President Obama's healthcare reform package, which Hoffman repudiated passionately.

So -- why are some conservatives still crowing?

First, they argue that they humbled and "corrected" the Republican Party, which -- in their opinion -- erred grievously by nominating moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.

Secondly, they claim that Hoffman actually performed very well, emerging from nowhere and nearly winning.

This second claim deserves a little exploration.

In fact, Hoffman performed 10-20% below the typical outing of former Rep. John McHugh, a moderate Republican. Hoffman won just 45% of the vote.

By contrast, Owens won just under 50% of the total vote -- roughly a 20% improvement over past Democratic outings.

In political terms, that's a massive shift, and obviously not a good one for anyone hoping to get Republicans elected.

Conservatives suggest that if Scozzafava's name hadn't been on the ballot, her 5% of the vote would have gone to Hoffman. I think that's wishful thinking.

None of this is meant to detract from the remarkable accomplishments of Hoffman's five-month political journey.

But the math raises real questions about whether a purely conservative candidate -- one who offers little to Republican moderates -- can prevail in NY-23.

For Republican moderates and conservatives in the North Country, the war goes on

Here's one thing that Tuesday's election made crystal clear: The rift between Republican conservatives and moderate is deep, substantial and personal.

Back in May, Conservative Party leader Mike Long made it clear that North Country Republicans Janet Duprey, Teresa Sayward and Dede Scozzafava would no longer enjoy his party's endorsement.

Why? It was a single-issue litmus test: They voted in favor of same-sex marriage.

Long's party went one better in the summer, running Doug Hoffman against Scozzafava in the 23rd House race.

Local Republicans across the 23rd district questioned whether Scozzafava has a future in the GOP, following her endorsement of Owens.

But in the final days of the campaign, we learned something new: Some moderates are quite willing to fight back.

Most substantial in this equation were the number of centrist Republican voters who crossed over and voted for Democrat Bill Owens, or pulled the protest lever on behalf of Scozzafava.

Here at NCPR, we've heard from many of these GOP voters who say they were simply uncomfortable with Hoffman's conservative social views.

But for the first time, Scozzafava and Duprey are also beginning to articulate their own platform, laying out the specifically Republican basis for their "liberal" social views.

In their opinion, the Hoffman-Conservative positions on social issues represent a big-government intervention into citizens' lives.

According to their argument, it's Hoffman -- not themselves -- who abandoned the GOP's devotion to small-government and personal liberty.

They also express deep disdain for conservative movement leaders such as Glen Beck and Rush Limbaugh, describing them as "hateful" and "divisive." (Hoffman described Beck as a "mentor.")

A similar view was visible in the rejection of Hoffman by the Watertown Daily Times, a newspaper whose editorial page has long been seen as conservative.

The paper accused Hoffman of being " beholden to right-wing ideologues."

So where do we go from here?

Scozzafava and Duprey have been elected Republicans for decades; but it's unclear whether their views are still welcome within the modern GOP, even in New York state.

Republican Assembly minority leader Brian Kolb's defense of their position has been feeble, at best. Other moderates have scurried for cover, or thrown them overboard.

After speaking with leaders on both sides of this divide, my sense is that there's very little stomach for rapprochement.

Instead, the future tone and shape of the party will likely be tested next September, when both Assemblywomen are likely to face primary challenges.

The fight goes on and, as is only proper, the final say will go to the voters.

Chilly turnout for a hot election

Despite all the heat in this week's 23rd Congressional district special election, turnout was quite low--only 30% of registered voters turned out to cast their ballots--125,000 out of 410,000 registered voters, acoording to unofficial results.

While presidential years usually have higher turnout--48.5% in NY-23 in 2008 and 55% in 2004, turnout was still way down from the last midterm vote, 2006, when 41.2% come out for an uninspiring rematch between a popular incumbent, John McHugh, and the Democratic candidate, Bob Johnson, whom McHugh had easily defeated in 2004.

Despite the unprecedented amount of money and rhetoric expended on the 2009 campaigns a huge number of voters just stayed home.

What does this say about the effect of the national spotlight that was turned on NY-23? Did the massive negativity of the ad war and the incessant robo-calls actually suppress turnout? Did this amplify the impact of get-out-the-vote efforts? Did the results accurately reflect the views of the district? Does low turnout undermine the importance of the vote when trying to extrapolate its import for NY politics in the future?

Plenty of room to read it either way.

What 2009 means for 2010 (More robocalls anyone?)

One thing's for sure: 2009 was a tipping point in North Country politics.

We saw massive fissures open between the region's "tea party" conservative movement and the long-established Republican Party.

We saw Democrats continue to flex their organizational muscle.

All that translates into more competitive elections down the road. Which isn't just a good thing, it's a great thing.

There's already talk of challenges against Republican Assemblywomen Dede Scozzafava and Janet Duprey.

It also seems very likely that Democratic Reps. Bill Owens and Scott Murphy will face energetic opponents next year.

My response? It's about time. An uncontested (or feebly contested) election is a missed opportunity.

For most of the first decade that I spent in the North Country, politics were kept in a lockbox.

There was a little drama occasionally in local races, but from the Assembly on up our politics were frozen in time.

Everyone (myself included) needs a little break right now from 24/7 politics. (Robocalls are the new black flies of the North Country.)

But with all the many problems this region faces -- and the many underused assets -- we need a more open and competitive debate over our future. I think we're going to get it.

Did Dick Armey just throw Doug Hoffman under the bus?

This shocker in today's Politico, in which conservative activists reject any notion that they lost NY-23.

Armey, the former House GOP majority leader, noted that Democrats had seized on Hoffman’s inability to address local concerns.

“The fact of the matter is, he didn’t pay enough attention to the local concerns, and they were able to tag him as being unaware of the local needs and concerns,” Armey said.

Wasn't it Armey himself who described local concerns as "parochial."

This from the Watertown Daily Times.

Coming to Mr. Hoffman's defense, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, who accompanied the candidate on a campaign swing, dismissed regional concerns as "parochial" issues that would not determine the outcome of the election.

National conservatives deliberately helped to shape Doug Hoffman into a national symbol, one whose stand on abortion, same-sex marriage and President Obama largely defined him.

For them to complain now that he didn't focus enough on local stuff strikes me as a stretch.

Scozzafava speaks

If you've at all followed the historic 23rd congressional district race, today's interview by NCPR's Jonathan Brown with Republican candidate (until Saturday) Dede Scozzafava is absolutely must-listen radio.

A couple choice cuts...

Asked what she thought of notions that she betrayed Republicans by endorsing Democrat Bill Owens: "If I'm going to be condemned for endorsing a candidate from a different party, then I think any other Republican that endorsed a candidate other than the Republican candidate should be treated the same way."

Talking about what she called "the battle for the heart and soul of the Republican party" and the "lies, vitriol, and deceit" leveled at her by right-wing conservatives, she said this: "If that's where the soul of our party is, all is not well with our soul."

Scozzafava's last laugh?

The In Box (and my email box) have been crammed with accusations against Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. Conservatives were infuriated by her decision back Bill Owens. She also campaigned for the Democrat.

Her pivot might have made a big difference in beating Doug Hoffman, thought that's not clear yet. Regardless, I think a couple of points are worth making here.

1. The Hoffman campaign attacked Scozzafava relentlessly for being too liberal. They cheerfully knocked her out of the race. But then Hoffman's team seemed unprepared for the possibility that she might actually have some bite left in her. And indeed, developments proved that most moderate Republicans (George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani) were perfectly happy following the Conservative Party's lead without a fight. But in politics when you attack someone you can't be shocked! shocked! when hey attack you back.

2. From what the Assemblywoman told me, she thinks Doug Hoffman's brand of conservatism is bad for the North Country and bad for the GOP. (She used the words "hateful" and "divisive" in our conversation.) This is a view held by a a percentage of moderate Republicans in the 23rd district. Conservatives were quite comfortable blocking Scozzafva from being the next congresswoman for ideological reasons. It seems only fair enough that she should get to use the same calculus in blocking Hoffman.

3. It's true that Scozzafava angered many Republicans by endorsing Democrat Bill Owens. But this happened long after most of her party had abandoned her. Even moderate GOP officials completely out of tune with Doug Hoffman's approach to politics stayed on the sidelines while her so campaign was shredded. Did she still owe the GOP her silence? When you watch the video of Pataki throwing her under the bus at the Conservative Party dinner, it's hard to see a whole lot of Reagan's 11th Commandment being modeled there.

4. Even if Scozzafava did turn on her party, the same can be said for Hoffman. For ideological reasons, he went back on his early assurance that he would support Scozzafava, after county officials rejected him for the nomination. Fair enough. But again, if Doug Hoffman gets to pivot and turn against his party for ideological reasons, then surely Scozzafava gets the same wiggle room. Right?

None of this is to say that Hoffman supporters can't be or shouldn't be angry. Politics is a bruising, full contact sport -- the stakes and emotions are high.

But one faction doesn't have a corner on the market for those emotions.

Listen for Jonathan Brown's fascinating interview with Scozzafava tomorrow morning during the 8 O'clock Hour.

Obama plus One: A score card

Everybody's having a crack at analyzing President Barack Obama's first year in office, so I'll take my shot, too. Here are my 10 top take-aways.

1. It turns out, he's patient. A year in, Mr. Obama seems comfortable hitting singles and doubles. Frustrating to supporters and critics alike. His allies want some home runs; his enemies want some strike outs. So far, it's just steady progress on his agenda.

2. He's spending a crazy amount of money. Mr. Obama has promised to pivot at what he views as the proper moment and begin reigning in the budget deficit. I generally buy the idea that we needed a huge cash infusion to stave off a full-scale depression. But so far his arguments about how and when to reign in the debt aren't very convincing.

3. He's not a socialist. That stuff's so ridiculous that it's boring. Yes, President Obama believes in a certain amount of regulation and a much beefier social safety net. It's fine to oppose those things on ideological grounds -- or because you think they're too costly. But they don't amount to socialism.

4. He's not willing to be dragged into the culture-war pitfalls that crippled Presidents Clinton and Bush. It seems he'll get to Don't Ask-Don't Tell and Immigration when it suits his agenda, not before.

5. He learned a lot from President Bush about how to ignore and manipulate the national media. That feud with Fox News? How can the White House lose controlling the conversation like that? And when they stumble into an issue that's not so friendly (say, painful political losses in New Jersey and Virginia) the Administration just squares up and marches on.

6. The biggest thing Mr. Obama carried over from the campaign is the no-fluster offense. Unflappability freaks Washingtonians out in the age of Glenn Beck's tears and Keith Olbermann's nightly indignation. It's hard to beat someone who just keeps whacking those singles.

7. I think maybe he's completely on the up-and-up in his private life. Democrats will live forever in fear of Kennedy-Hart-Clinton-Edwards Syndrome, which has derailed more progressive agendas than Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan combined. But it seems that Mr. Obama is avoiding that trap.

8. So far, so good on the economy. I know, plenty still to complain about. We want more justice, more prosperity. But we were teetering on the edge of a cliff. Now, it seems, we're not. That's probably good enough for Year One, right?

9. He still needs a home run. Singles are great, but hey: He's the one who created all these expectations. So what'll it be? Health care? Immigration? Ending the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? All of the above?

10. Last but not least, he's still benefiting from Republican bungling. New Jersey and Virginia may be evidence of a revival. But I think NY-23 is more symptomatic of where the party's at right now. As long as conservatives and moderates in the GOP are mugging each other, Mr. Obama has only one thing to worry about...his own straying Democrats.

So there's my take. What do you think? A good year for the President? A bad year? Has he saved us from Depression? Pushed us toward insolvency?

Post away...

The Northway Democrats

Who would have guessed a year ago that we'd have two members of Congress living on the I-87 corridor, one in Plattsburgh and the other in Glens Falls?

And who would have predicted that they would be Democrats.

That's a lot of Adirondack Foothills muscle.

The perfect Election 09 headline

This from The Hill newspaper:

GOP gains momentum, Dems gain House seat

That sums it up, right? Team Obama will have to manage some unhappiness over the way the NJ and VA governor's races went.

But when the dust settles, he has one more dependable vote in the House in Rep. Bill Owens. How dependable?

Well, that's the fun part.

Hoffman's national crusade falls short in a local House race

I think my first sense that something was wrong in the Hoffman Wave came around 8pm. I arrived at the Hotel Saranac to find a distinctly underwhelming crowd.

There were plenty of reporters. Fox News had set up an entire studio, so that Sean Hannity could capture the moment of Doug Hoffman's victory.

But where were the crowds of grassroots supporters? Where were the hundreds (the tens?) of passionate activists?

For days, polls had showed Hoffman surging. Siena's independent survey put him up five points. Other polls showed the Conservative up by double-digit margins.

I was convinced that the "passion index" favored Hoffman. And Republicans were behind him now, too, right?

But then I noticed something else: No Republican leaders. Jim Ellis was there from Tupper Lake -- but no sign of state Senator Betty Little. No phalanx of GOP-allies.

I shrugged it off. The people who were on hand were passionate, funny, confident. These were mostly local folks from the Adirondacks.

Conservative, yes. But Glenn Beck crazy? No.

These were normal, down-to-earth people supporting a candidate and a cause they believe in.

But as the night began, it quickly became clear that Hoffman was going to fall short. It wasn't a drubbing, or a humiliation.

Doug Hoffman rode a wave that toppled one candidate and came within 3% of toppling another.

But here's the hard truth: In politics, 3% is a lot of territory. And by mounting this insurgency, Hoffman helped to elect a Democrat in NY-23 for the first time in modern history.

What went wrong? Maybe nothing.

Maybe the traditionalist message (pro-life, opposing gay marriage) and the anti-government rhetoric simply don't appeal to enough people.

Or maybe the same factors that helped build the wave -- the sense of culture-war urgency, that whiff of triumphalism, the hectoring of the Becks and Limbaughs -- also brought it up short.

It also appears that while conservatives loathe Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a sizable number of North Country voters don't.

In fact, they kind of like and respect her. Not so shocking when you consider that she's been an elected official and GOP leader for a decade.

After last night's defeat, is there room for Doug Hoffman's movement in the North Country?

I for one hope so. We need everyone in the room, all hands on the wheel, to help with the many crises we face in New York.

Raising questions about massive government spending is a good thing. (I for one would prefer to hold this local discussion without the involvement of national AM talk radio hosts.)

Before 2010, I hope Doug Hoffman takes the time to make more connections, take a truer pulse of his neighbors, and learn the bread-and-butter issues that matter here to so many people.

Bill Owens wins 23rd; Hoffman concedes - historic election ends in upset

For the first time in more than a century, NY-23 is represented by a Democrat. Bill Owens is congressman-elect.

That's one more vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; one more vote for Barack Obama's health care plan.

This race had so many twists and turns that it left everyone -- myself included -- completely bamboozled.

My private prediction today? A Douglas Hoffman victory, maybe a big one. I was wrong. The polls were wrong.

More to the point, the Republican Party and the conservative movement writ large got it wrong.

The mood at Hoffman HQ in Saranac Lake was truly mournful: the sense here was of a crusade abruptly interrupted, a march on Washington cut short.

In his concession speech Hoffman urged his followers to fight on. But the simple fact is that in this very rural, traditionally Republican district voters chose a Democrat.

A year into the Obama presidency and rural northern New York chose a Democrat.

We'll be picking through the tea leaves of this one for some time, but three quick takeaways.

1. For thousands of people around the country this was Big Politics. It was Ideology and History. But for a lot of people here it was a story about Doug Hoffman, a local guy who wanted to make a difference.

2. Movement conservatives called this wrong. They mugged a moderate Republican -- they beat Dede Scozzafava handily -- but she slugged back. Her counterpunch may have cost Hoffman the race.

3. Bill Owens played the role of sane, friendly, grounded Democrat perfectly. Critics chided him for his lack of passion, his lack of spark. But in an election defined by histrionics and talk-show blather (not to mention way too many blog posts...) voters chose him.

AP calls 23rd for Owens

From the Associated Press:

Democrat Bill Owens has captured the special election for a New York congressional seat that became a fight over the identity of the Republican Party.

Owens defeated Conservative Doug Hoffman and Republican Dede Scozzafava in the heavily Republican 23rd congressional District in northern New York. Scozzafava abruptly withdrew Saturday and supported Owens.

With 88 percent of the precincts reporting, Owens had 49 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Hoffman. Scozzafava had 6 percent.

Hoffman has conceded the race.

Across the country, pundits and activists eyed this race as national players poured money into the Democratic and Conservative campaigns. Some called it a referendum on President Barack Obama and others said it could help Republicans focus their message to attract more people
to the party.

It's the first time since the Civil War that a Democrat will represent the 23rd District.

We'll have more on the air tomorrow morning during the Eight O'clock Hour and, of course, more here on the In Box.

Cops debunk Hoffman's "Dems stealing election" claim in Plattsburgh

Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is accusing Democrats of dirty tricks in Plattsburgh. This from the WSJ:

“We just had a report that one of our pollsters in Clinton County just had their tires slashed,” Hoffman told reporters at his campaign office in Plattsburgh, N.Y. “So I think the Democrats are doing everything they possibly can to steal this election away from the 23rd District.”

Turns out, not so much:

Capt. Michael Branch of the Plattsburgh City Police Department said the incident wasn’t criminal mischief, but rather a tire-meets-bottle affair. “This was not a tire slashing—this was some guy who drove over a bottle and cut his tire,” Branch said.

The police captain added that he had personally driven past all of Plattsburgh’s polling places and found “no disorder, no crowds, nothing going on. Peace and quiet here in Plattsburgh.”

Nine Truths About Dede Scozzafava

Dede Scozzafava has become a metaphor the last 72 hours for everything that's wrong with the Republican Party.

Some people say she's a red-flag politician because she was ever allowed to join the GOP in the first place.

Others say her importance lies in the fact that she's no longer welcome.

In the mix, there's been a lot of inaccurate reporting and commentary. So let me lay out what I see as some truths about Assemblywoman Scozzafava.

1. In this election, Dede Scozzafava was never endorsed by Acorn. Didn't happen. The Working Families Party (which has some ties to Acorn) endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.

2. Before this election, Scozzafava wasn't just a Republican, she was a Republican leader, serving as GOP whip in the state Assembly. Pretending she was never part of the in-crowd just doesn't fly. Toss her under the bus, fine. But don't pretend that she didn't use to be one of the drivers.

3. Scozzafava's views on same-sex marriage (she thinks it's a civil right) are in line with the stated views of many other New York Republicans elected in the 23rd district -- including two of the most powerful: state Assemblywomen Janet Duprey and Teresa Sayward. Plattsburgh, on the eastern side of the district, was the first city in New York to elect an openly gay mayor...and he was a Republican.

4. Scozzafava's relationships with labor groups are certainly more intimate than former Rep. John McHugh's. (She's married to a regional union organizer). Her embrace of 'card check' is a significant and controversial outlier for the GOP. But the North Country the Republican Party has always had close ties to unions.

5. Scozzafava wasn't chosen by "Republican elites." She was chosen by eleven county GOP chairmen from some of the most rural corners of New York state. A less than transparent process? Yes. A fix engineered by faceless party elites out of touch with their communities? No.

6. Scozzafava's implosion wasn't all Doug Hoffman's (or Rush Limbaugh's) fault. Put bluntly, she ran an awful, no-good, very bad campaign. She never managed to raise much money. Her campaign ads were flat and her messages were muddled at best. The financial troubles plaguing her family business didn't help.

7. Republicans screwed this up in more ways than one. The national- and state-level GOPs backing Scozzafava ran one of the most tone-deaf campaigns in recent memory. And recent memory includes the fiascos that resulted in Democrats winning a state Senate seat and a House seat (NY-20) in the North Country.

8. Scozzafava is, for lack of a better word, a maverick. Until this fall, she clearly believed that the Republican Party had room for someone like her, with distinctly different views on key issues. She seemed to feel comfortable within the GOP. But she also knew she was pushing her luck at times (on her support for gay marriage, in particular) and kept going. This is why some people view her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens as more than just sour grapes.

9. Most political observers here in the North Country thought Dede Scozzafava was a solid Republican choice -- and probably unstoppable. If Doug Hoffman hadn't entered this race, she would have been the next congresswoman from NY-23. What's more, I'm guessing she would have been a fairly non-controversial one, about as well-liked locally and loyal to her national party leadership as, say, John McHugh. The political climate changed completely with Hoffman's emergence, but it's important to remember where we began.

So how was voting today?

Jonathan here.

I'm hoping to talk with some In Box regulars about their voting experience today.

I just went to the polls and had the kind of unsatisfying/frustrating experience lots of people are talking about (no privacy, no way to check the machine read my ballot correctly, etc).

So, for those In Box contributors who have a few minutes, call me.

My direct line is (315) 229-5360

Or you can e-mail me at jonathan@ncpr.org.

I'd love to have a few of your voices on All Before Five this afternoon.

Thanks

Brian Mann lays out the NY-23 race for the Online PBS NewsHour

Yesterday NCPR's Brian Mann discussed the 23rd district race and how the national attention has impacted discussion of local issues with Quinn Bowman of the PBS NewsHour:



Full PBS Election 2009 Roundup

Police called to NY-23 polling place

Liz Benjamin at the New York Daily News is reporting that it's been confirmed that police were called to a polling site in St. Lawrence County because of alleged voter harassment by a conservative activist.

Here's Benjamin's write-up.

I called over to the St. Lawrence Board of Elections and got GOP Elections Commissioner Debbie Pahler on the line. She confirmed that the police indeed had been called, but she downplayed the incident, saying it's "a routine procedure here in the county."

"We had electioneering within the 100-foot polling marker," Phaler said. "It's my understanding that they were asked to leave and wouldn't leave."

"If people are electioneering within the marker and don't stop when we ask them to, our inspectors are instructed to call law enforcement to assist them. I don't think anybody was arrested."

The TV trucks are arriving in Saranac Lake

Saranac Lake isn't usually ground zero for congressional races, let alone Big National races -- but today the TV trucks are rolling in.

Reporters from around the U.S. will stake out the Hotel Saranac, Doug Hoffman's campaign HQ for the evening.

I'll be there -- and David Sommerstein will be down in Plattsburgh at Bill Owen's HQ.

The odd location out will be Watertown, which was expected to be Dede Scozzafava's rallying point.

One voter's experience

I voted this morning in St. Lawrence County. From the story I heard on NCPR, including a re-broadcast of Jonathan Brown's visit to the Board of Elections last spring to explore the new electronic voting machines, I had the impression that I would have an opportunity to examine my ballot once I inserted it into the actual voting machine and before I hit the "cast ballot" button. In other words, a chance to check to make sure I had voted for those I intended to vote for...remember the Florida debacle...

It's not that straightforward at my polling place. I received instructions on how to complete the ballot and was told someone would show me how to use the actual machine once I filled out the ballot at a "privacy" station. From what I had heard about the machines, I assumed that when I inserted the ballot there would a digital read out of my selections that I could check over before officially casting my ballot.

Not so. Unless you actually request such a check of your vote, it does not happen automatically. Again, at my polling place, no one mentioned anything about the option to check my vote or how it works. And, what you get if you do request a vote check is not a digital read out but a printed piece of paper.

This would all be fine with these adjustments to the process used at the polling place:
1) Poll workers should be officially instructed to explain the "vote check" process--without being asked by individual voters.
2) Ideally, machines should be re-tooled to provide the voter with a digital read out rather than a paper review of their ballot before it is cast. (There's a built-in paper trail through the paper ballot fed into the electronic voting machine.)
2) Poll workers should, in general, be very proactive about offering assistance as we implement the new technology.

Finally, perhaps because the machines are new to my district, there was a poll worker who stood near the digital voting machine ready to assist voters with the insertion of their ballots into the machine. The machine sits in a totally open space, no privacy. So, when you go to insert your ballot and ask for help, because your vote is marked in bold permanent marker (at least this was the marking tool used at my polling place), your voting choices are visible to anyone within a few feet of the machine as you insert your ballot.

Not huge complaints but as we implement new technology, we should try to get it as user-friendly as possible.

Bottom line: I didn't have to worry about bombs exploding outside the polling booth or anything else designed to de-rail the single most important privilege afforded citizens in a democracy. If you're reading this and haven't voted today--and don't intend to--please re-think that. Voting matters--but only if we all exercise the privilege.

Ellen Rocco

No receipts for electronic voters

Martha Foley has been talking with election officials and it appears that I was mistaken reporting this morning that voters could request a physical receipt after voting electronically.

Elections officials tell us, you can double check your vote, but no receipts are available.

We'll ad more information about this as it becomes available.

Voting concerns - what are you experiencing?

I've been hearing various concerns from across NY-23 today about various challenges at the ballot box. Some stem from poll workers being out with the flu -- others from new electronic voting machines.

Here's one email:

I did not see a screen nor get a receipt to confirm my vote. I was expecting this because it was reported in the media. When I asked, I was told that I needed to request that before I voted. I was not given that information before I voted.

And here's another:

I was at the polls at 5 to 6 this morning. It was a pretty disorganized scene, with the new machines and many poll workers out sick. A process that usually takes 2 minutes took 20 minutes. The workers were huddled around the black scanners until 5 after 6. It appears they got one working by the time I left but nobody seemed all that confident.

The referenda are on the back of the ballot. I only found them because I was looking for them. The permanent marker they gave me bled through the ballot slightly. The instructions say the ballot won't count if there are any extraneous marks.

The bottom line: Give yourself some extra time to vote today, ask lots of questions, be sure you're comfortable with your vote before you leave.

And comment below about your experience? Did you have problems? Was it smooth sailing? Let us know.

Vote... Vote... Vote... Vote...

It would be easy in this bizarro political season to decide that cynicism is the only philosophy that still matches our democratic system.

A lot of voters are angry, adrift, alienated.

Well, this is your chance to dive back in the pool. One of these men -- Doug Hoffman or Bill Owens -- will represent you and shape your nation in very challenging times.

I know it's a cliche, but it's also true: Americans have fought and died for your right to cast this ballot.

What's more, a lot of Americans have faced far more difficult and ambiguous decisions than the one you have to make today.

Think you're choosing between the lesser of two evils? Do you wish you had a better choice? Welcome to the real world.

This is the world that democracy operates within. Our politicians are real people. I've met both of these candidates. Both strike me as flawed; but they're also decent, civic-minded men.

They also represent starkly different views about the world, the future of the 23rd district and our country.

So go do what is, in every sense of the word, your duty. It may be a hard choice, it may be an easy choice. The only bad choice is not voting.

Limbaugh: Scozzafava guilty of "bestiality"

The liberal website Media Matters has captured audio of conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh attacking Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.

Scozzafava dropped out of the NY-23 house race over the weekend.

According to Limbaugh, Scozzafava is "guilty of widespread bestiality" for her support of Democrat Bill Owens.

It is, by Rush's lights, the punchline to a joke. He suggests that Scozzafava has "screwed every RINO in the country."

Here's the full excerpt (below) or hear it here.

LIMBAUGH: Scozzafava has screwed every RINO in the coun -- we can say that she's guilty of widespread bestiality. She has screwed every RINO in the country. Everyone can see just see how phony and dangerous they are. You know, 2010 might be a nightmare for PETA. Two animals may become extinct; RINOs and Blue Dog Democrats. Pelosi's gonna kill off the Blue Dogs, and the conservatives are gonna finally get rid of RINOs. The American people have had enough.

The Hated Robo-Call: Now with Scozzafava

I've had more emails and phone calls from people furious about robocalls than any other strategic issue in this campaign. People are being buried.

Well, stand by for one more. Here's Republican Dede Scozzafava stumping for Democrat Bill Owens:

“Hi, this is Dede Scozzafava calling on behalf of Bill Owens. And I wanted to let you know that I am supporting Bill for Congress.

“Since beginning my campaign I have said that this election is not about me, it’s about the people of this district. It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative but I strongly believe Bill Owens is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh’s lasting legacy in Congress.

“In Bill Owens I see a sense of duty and integrity. He will be an independent voice, devoted to doing what is right for New York. To address the tough challenges ahead we must rise above partisanship and politics, and work together.

“Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday.”

Owens, Hoffman, Scozzafava Coverage Tops Google News

Like a lot of journalists, I use Google News all the time -- hourly, minute-by-minute sometimes -- to track what's going on nationally and here in our region.

I don't think I've ever seen a North Country story top the page. Even the cruise boat tragedy on Lake George didn't top the "news charts."

But the NY-23 race is there -- peaking with stories from every conceivable news organization around the world.

Wow. FWIW, NCPR will have a piece this evening on NPR's All Things Considered. Our reports have also been featured on WNYC's The Takeaway and on PBS NewsHour's website.

Also, the debate we helped produce in Plattsburgh is featured prominently in CNN's report on the contest.

Like most of you, I'm really ready to have this all over tomorrow. But I guess it's worth nodding at the circus and hoopla...

Also on tomorrow's ballot--two amendments to the NYS Constitution

Two proposed amendments to the New York State constitution will appear on the special election ballot tomorrow. You can find some background on the proposals from the NYS League of Women Voters here.

In many areas, the ballot proposals are on the back of the printed ballot. Be sure to check.

Proposal #1
Amendment to section 1 of article 14 of the Constitution, in relation to the use of certain forest preserve lands by National Grid to construct a 46 kV power line along State Route 56 in St. Lawrence County. The proposed amendment would authorize the Legislature to convey up to six acres of forest preserve land along State Route 56 in St. Lawrence County to National Grid for construction of a power line. In exchange, National Grid would convey to the State at least 10 acres of forest land in St. Lawrence County, to be incorporated into the forest preserve. The land to be conveyed by National Grid to the State must be at least equal in value to the land conveyed to National Grid by the State. Should the amendment be approved?

Chris Knight reported on the details of the proposed land swap for NCPR.

Proposal #2:
Amendment to article 3 of the Constitution, in relation to authorizing the Legislature to allow prisoners to voluntarily perform work for nonprofit organizations. The proposed amendment would authorize the Legislature to pass legislation to permit inmates in state and local correctional facilities to perform work for nonprofit organizations. Shall the proposed amendment be approved?

NCPR's poll coverage

NCPR has probed and dissected as many polls as we could find these past weeks. Now we're going to stop reporting on them until after tomorrow's election.

Why? First, because the experts we talk to agree that the situation out there is just too crazy for accurate surveys.

This is reflected by the fact that new polls coming out today are all over the map.

Part of this reflects the continued fall-out from Republican Dede Scozzafava's withdrawal and her unexpected endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens.

Partly, it reflects the dramatic, non-traditional campaign of Doug Hoffman.

And partly it reflects the fact that no one's really sure who will turn up tomorrow. "Likely Voter Models" are notoriously sketchy...especially in special elections.

Suffice it to say that if you ever dreamed of voting in a dramatic, fascinating, nationally resonant contest, where your ballot could make a big difference, this is that opportunity.

A couple of thousands of votes could very easily make the difference either way. It's a cliche -- but also a fact -- to say that election day is the only poll that matters.

Convince us. Make your best case for Hoffman, Owens

So here's the E-Day Minus One In-Box Challenge. Write a few sentences in the comment box below giving your best, positive argument on behalf of the candidate you support.

What is it about Bill Owens that sold you? How about Doug Hoffman? And what about the concerns raised by their critics? How do you process those ideas?

Remember: This is a chance to give the positives, the hopeful reasons that you support your choice. Flames and ad hominem stuff will just tune people out.

Go for it...

One more day

For conservative activists across the country, Doug Hoffman's rise is a cause, a crusade. The push to turn out a massive vote on Tuesday will be epic.

Actor, activist and former US Senator Fred Thompson will join Hoffman in Watertown today.

For Democrats, the NY-23 race offers a rare chance to pick off a district that has voted Republican since the Civil War.

Labor groups and Democratic activists are all-in as well, with Vice President Joe Biden is also arriving in Watertown later this morning.

Residents of the district have been barraged, buried, battered by mailings, robo-calls and radio and TV spots.

Whoever wins tomorrow, it's been a remarkable political journey, sparked by former Rep. John McHugh's appointment as Army Secretary, driven by the summer's tea party zeal, and culminating in this weekend's topsy-turvey weirdness.

Once the votes are counted, I'm guessing a lot of unanswered questions will remain. What's the future for moderate Democrats like Bill Owens in these "purple" districts?

And what will the post-Obama GOP look like? Ultra-conservative? Or is there room for moderates like Dede Scozzafava?

One thing is certain. After Tuesday, those ideological debates will shift far away from our rural towns and our local meeting halls.

We'll get back to more familiar politics, where it's all about neighbors and people we know and the future of our own North Country.

I for one am looking forward to it.

Hoffman Camp: Scozzafava "betrayed" GOP

Here's a statement from Doug Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan:

“This afternoon Dede Scozzafava betrayed the GOP. She endorsed a Pelosi Democrat who will spend more, tax more, and push the liberal agenda that is dragging down this nation. Doug Hoffman represents the revolution that is taking place against high taxes. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are desperate. They are throwing everything they have at us but we’re back. The voters now know what Dede Scozzafava believes in—the liberal agenda of Nancy Pelosi.”

Breaking: Dede Scozzafava, Republican, endorses Democrat Bill Owens

Here's the statement issued by Republican Assemblywoman and former congressional candidate Dede Scozzafava a short time ago.

"You know me, and throughout my career I have always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically.

"It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

"It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress."

For what it's worth, I've been hearing from Republican officials who had backed Scozzafava and members of her campaign team, who sharply disagree with her stance.

House Republicans promise Hoffman Armed Services Committe seat

Matching a pledge that they made to Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava, the House GOP leadership has now promised to offer Conservative Doug Hoffman "the next available" seat on the House Armed Services Committee if he wins Tuesday's vote.

Here's the full statement issued today.

“Doug Hoffman has our full support for the next available seat on the House Armed Services Committee so he can best serve the interests of Fort Drum and the troops and military families of New York’s Twenty-Third Congressional District.

“The strategic and economic importance of this military base to Central and Northern New York demands that anyone representing this district be in a position to support its needs.

“John McHugh’s leadership on Armed Services was a great asset to the people of the North Country and Doug Hoffman is ready to carry on that legacy as their next congressman.”

New York’s Twenty-Third Congressional District encompasses all or part of 11 counties throughout the central and northern part of the Empire State. The district includes Fort Drum, home of the Army’s 10^th Mountain Division. Over 12% of the people living in New York’s Twenty-Third Congressional District are military veterans."

The argument for Doug Hoffman

Erick Erickson is one of the most prominent conservative bloggers to take up the Hoffman banner.

A couple of posters to the In Box conversation have pointed out, fairly I think, that we need to see an argument on the right comparable to the one that Frank Rich makes in the NY Times today.

Erickson gives a concise, articulate and zealous summary of the argument for Doug Hoffman.

Friends, it is not every race. It is not every issue. It is not all the time. It is rarely, if ever, all or nothing. There is always room for disagreement. But when confronted by the facts, issues, and positions of the candidates in NY-23, as in the Florida Senate race, we either hang together or we might as well hang separately.

In the 24 hours since this became a 2-way race, Erickson has called for resignations and firings among the Republican leadership, so he can hardly be described as a GOP mouthpiece.

(Similarly, Frank Rich is often out of step with the Democratic leadership...)

In the day since Dede Scozzafava dropped out, some of his argument is dated, but the essay still articulates well why many conservatives see this as a key national race -- and why they view some local issues as "parochial" -- to quote Dick Armey.

Read the full post here.

Scozzafava's husband backs Democrat Owens; former Sen. Meier backs Hoffman

The NY Daily News is reporting that Republican Dede Scozzafava's housband, Ron McDougall, is backing Democrat Bill Owens.

McDougall is a well-known union organizer and activist and described his move in those terms:

"This has been a difficult day for my family. But the needs and concerns of the men and women of the 23rd Congressional District remain paramount," McDougall said. "As such, I wholeheartedly and without reservation endorse the candidacy of Bill Owens."

“As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers."

"Hoffman’s opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District.”

On the other hand, former state Sen. Ray Meier today endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman.

“With the withdrawal of Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this is now not just a race between two candidates, but between two fundamentally different visions for the future of our country. Doug Hoffman is an independent business owner who has given a life of service to his community. He will make a strong stand against a federal government that is intent on ever growing spending, debt, and intrusion upon our liberties.

In contrast, his opponent seems eager to get to Washington so he can add his support to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the agenda that has already spent and borrowed our children and grandchildren into a perilous and uncertain future. Doug Hoffman deserves your vote because he is the only candidate in this race with the integrity to care more about the next generation than the next election.”

“North Country voters have the opportunity to fire the shot that the spenders and taxers in Washington will not be able to ignore. They can do so by the simple exercise of the right to vote—won by patriots who actually put their lives on the line. Change is coming. Americans are reclaiming their country. Let it begin in New York by electing Doug Hoffman.”

Is Scozzafava backing Owens? The WDT thinks so.

This shocker from the Watertown Daily Times' editorial.

During the day Saturday, [Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava] began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.

The Times offers no attribution or support for the claim.

Frank Rich (hearts) Hoffman

The liberal New York Times columnist has embraced Conservative Doug Hoffman, not for his politics, but for what Frank Rich thinks this campaign is doing to the Republican Party.

The right’s embrace of Hoffman is a double-barreled suicide for the G.O.P. On Saturday, the battered Scozzafava suspended her campaign, further scrambling the race. It’s still conceivable that the Democratic candidate could capture a seat the Republicans should own.

But it’s even better for Democrats if Hoffman wins. Punch-drunk with this triumph, the right will redouble its support of primary challengers to 2010 G.O.P. candidates they regard as impure. That’s bad news for even a Republican as conservative as Kay Bailey Hutchison, whose primary opponent in the Texas governor’s race, the incumbent Rick Perry, floated the possibility of secession at a teabagger rally in April and hastily endorsed Hoffman on Thursday.

It's been a bizarre experience, looking at the North Country through the lens of national media figures like Rich.

Here's an example of Rich's view of our corner of New York state:

...without the federal government largess that the tea party crowd so deplores, New York’s 23rd would be a Siberia of joblessness. The biggest local employer is the pork-dependent military base, Fort Drum.

A Siberia of joblessness. Nice. Read the full article here.

Reading the tea leaves: Dead tie? Clear edge for Hoffman? Sheesh, who knows?

Pollster.com is home to some of the most interesting writing and thinking about political polls and surveys. Yes, it's "horse race" stuff, but interesting to readers up to their eyebrows in a race like NY-23.

Check out their read on how Scozzafava's departure might impact Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman.

The short answer is that they expect a slight majority of Scozzafava voters to break for Hoffman; but they also note that many of these voters really like Barack Obama. So it's...complicated.

Meanwhile, the "Intrade" political market ticker now gives Hoffman a 67% chance of winning.

And FiveThirtyEight.com -- another poll discussion site -- Nate Silver also gives the edge to the Conservative.

"Gun to my head?" Silver writes. "Sure, I'd take Hoffman at this point."

Meanwhile, a respected polling firm called PPP reported yesterday that their survey on Saturday morning gave a clear edge to Hoffman, even before Scozzafava pulled out of the race.

So this morning around 10 AM I started up our NY-23 poll and after a few hundred interviews it appeared that Doug Hoffman was now running away with it-unweighted numbers showed him at 45% to 26% for Bill Owens and 17% for Dede Scozzafava.

For what it's worth, I find those numbers sketchy. Not because Hoffman looks so strong (he's been surging over the last two weeks) but because Owens looks weirdly weak.

This incomplete, small-sample survey would indicate a 7% drop for the Democrat fro m the Siena poll.

That's a really unlikely event at this point in the race -- and it would require a huge defection of Democrats from his campaign.

Bottom line? We're in the fog-of-war stage here. This really is one of those races where we don't know what's going to happen, except that voters will go to the polls, pull for the guy who reflects their values, and someone will win.

It just doesn't get any better than that.

Watertown Daily Times backs Owens, blasts Hoffman

A day after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the NY-23 special election, the Watertown Daily Times -- the biggest newspaper in the district -- backed Democrat Bill Owens.

It's a dramatic shift, especially for a newspaper which generally has a (small-c) conservative-leaning editorial page.

Here's the WDT's take on Owens:

Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.

The Democratic candidate has demonstrated a willingness to listen to people about ways in which he could help the district as their representative in Washington. Mr. Owens has remained focused on the economy and job creation throughout his campaign. At the same time, he has shown an understanding of the military, a keen desire to help dairy farmers, an ability to work with labor unions and an eagerness to learn more about the vast, 11-county district that he hopes to represent.

Mr. Owens seems to approach politics and challenges with an open mind, a generous spirit and a can-do attitude. He has conducted a dignified campaign in comparison to Doug Hoffman.

The WDT editorial attack on Doug Hoffman, meanwhile, is flat-out blistering. WDT describes the Conservative from Lake Placid as "an ideologue."

If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer.

This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support.

Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.

For a member of Congress, there may be a time to promote reform in Washington, but there is also a time to work within a system that best serves the people you represent.

It is frightening that Mr. Hoffman is so beholden to right-wing ideologues who dismiss Northern New Yorkers as parochial when people here simply want to know how Mr. Hoffman will protect their interests in Washington.

WWND?

What will newspapers do? Do editorial page endorsements matter or count for much? Who knows these days.

But in an election with huge numbers of voters suddenly cut loose from their candidate-of-choice -- Republican Dede Scozzafava -- I'll be curious to see if there are any shifts.

The Gouverneur and Watertown papers endorsed Scozzafava. Will they offer a new pick before Tuesday?

The Plattsburgh Press-Republican hasn't endorsed and it seems unlikely that this development will change their minds.

On the other hand, Scozzafava's move seems to have clarified the sentiment of the Adirondack Daily Enterprise.

The ADE described the race as as one that should go to either Conservative Doug Hoffman or Scozzafava. Democrat Bill Owens was the editorial board's least favorite:

First of all, we unfortunately must advise you not to vote for Mr. Owens - unless you're such a devoted Democrat that you really can't stand to vote for anyone else, or if a hint of a "yes" vote on public health insurance is worth a major sacrifice of general competence. We just think he is too wishy-washy to do the job well.

Finally, the Syracuse Post-Standard (which has a substantial readership in the central NY portion of the district) picked Owens, so their endorsement seems to stand.

Here's what they had to say:

We give Owens the edge in this race because he offers a clear and welcome contrast to both Scozzafava and Hoffman on major issues. As a lawmaker in Washington, however, he will have to commit himself to finding specific solutions.

The Scozzafava Factor

I spoke this afternoon with Steven Greenberg at the Siena Research Institute. Like political wonks everywhere, he was flabbergasted by the NY-23 roller-coaster.

"While common wisdom would say that most Scozzafava voters would go with Hoffman, 1. I have no wisdom and 2. this race has been anything but common."

Amen.

But Greenberg pointed out one other interesting factor: A lot of voters will likely still pull the lever for Dede Scozzafava.

"Scozzafava is still going to get a percentage of the vote on Tuesday, whether it'll be 5%, 10% or 15%. A lot of people have already voted absentee. A lot of people may not like the other candidates. Some people may not even know this new development has happened on Tuesday."

Driving this weirdness may be the fact that a lot of artifacts of Scozzafava's campaign are still floating around out there.

When I go to political websites today (Saturday) I see a lot of pro-Scozzafava ads from her campaign and from the National Rifle Association.

There's no indication that she's pulled out. Call it a zombie campaign...that could shape Tuesday's outcome.

Today's Clear Winner: The Palin Movement

A lot of questions will remain unanswered until the polls close Tuesday night, but one thing is absolutely certain:

The conservative movement that cohered around former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in 2008 has emerged as the vibrant core of the modern Republican Party.

Moderates and pragmatists within the GOP -- leaders as varied as Michael Steele and Newt Gingrich -- had staked a slice of the party's future on leaders like Dede Scozzafava.

The argument is simple: Without a chunk of moderate and even liberal Republicans winning in "blue" districts, it will be very very difficult to rebuild a majority in Congress.

But conservatives see this very differently. They're convinced that much of the GOP's sag in recent years has stemmed from a liberalization of the Republican establishment.

Even George W. Bush flirted with "compassionate" conservatism in ways that angered rank-and-file activists.

Now that movement leaders -- and groups like Club for Growth -- have sent Scozzafava packing, they are clearly kingmakers within the party.

There's just one more big item on the to-do list, and that's getting Doug Hoffman, standard-bearer and political phenomenon, elected.

If he falls short on Tuesday, look for a fresh round of finger-pointing, acrimony and indecision with the GOP.

But if he wins, conservative Republicans will have a clear message for their leaders in Washington.

Don't stray outside the ideological lines that we draw, or we'll cut your candidates off at the knees every time.

What does Scozzafava's pull-out mean for Tuesday?

The first, obvious take-away from today's shocker of a decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava is that Doug Hoffman benefits enormously.

Scozzafava was harnessing a sizable 29% of the Republican vote, and only 11% of the Democratic vote.

You can do the math. If Hoffman and Owens harvest equal percentages from their respective columns, the Conservative gains a boost that's nearly three times as large.

There are some caveats, though. Some of the folks in both columns may be ideological drifters.

An example might be Republican women who have drifted into the moderate or even liberal territory now inhabited by Scozzafava.

Or, they might be Democratic men, who have drifted away from the Obama platform Bill Owens has embraced.

In short, anyone who hasn't yet "come home" to Hoffman or Owens might have pretty strong reasons not to do so.

But the basic math looks great for Hoffman.

One other development. The Democratic Get Out The Vote Effort powered by union-labor had been divided between Scozzafava (whose husband is a labor organizer) and Owens.

Union groups have been shifting over to the Democratic column through the day.

Similarly, Hoffman will now likely enjoy the full firepower of the GOP's GOTV machine. So, is that a wash? Hard to read.

Your thoughts? Post away below.

BREAKING: Scozzafava suspends NY-23 Congressional campaign, releases supporters

In an email message from from her campaign, NY Assembly representative Dede Scozzafava, Republican of Gouverneur, released her supporters without endorsing either of the two other candidates in the 23rd congressional district special election coming up on Tuesday. Her statement follows:

Dear Friends and Supporters:

Throughout the course of my campaign for Congress, I have made the people of the 23rd District and the issues that affect them the focal point of my campaign. As a life long resident of this District, I care deeply and passionately about its people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor, I have always sought to act with the best interest of our District and its residents in mind —and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.

The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I've traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I've been overwhelmed by the amount of support I've received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.

In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money — and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I've said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it's about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me — and to those who choose not to — I offer my sincerest thanks.