Tedisco, Murphy engage partisan blogosphere

Congressional hopefuls Scott Murphy and Jim Tedisco have been reaching out to their parties' bases from the start of this special election.

Their use of the blogosphere to reach audiences fast in this short-fused campaign has offered a glimpse into the changing dynamics of American elections.

Tedisco has used on-line video and third-party website outreach to raise money. His story is now being carried by the on-line issue of the conservative Weekly Standard.

The Standard argues that this race could" shake up politics as usual with its mix of broader state, regional, and even national issues."

For the past decade, the state's GOP has performed more like the '62 Mets than the '62 Yankees (the Bronx Bombers won the World Series that year, while the then-hapless Mets nearly set a Major League season record for losses)....A Tedisco win, however, could reverse the slide. And right now his fundamentals look strong. He is well-known in the district--and particularly around the populous Albany area--after serving in the state legislature since 1982.

Scott Murphy, the Glens Falls Democrat, has also reached out on-line, penning an op-ed for Huffingtonpost.com, the left-leaning website created by Arianna Huffington.

As we face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, voters in Upstate New York deserve to receive straight answers from congressional candidates as to how they would vote on President Obama's recovery package. The least Assemblyman Tedisco can do on his 'road to recovery tour' is say whether he'd vote "yes" or "no."

This kind of instant-messaging (and instant fundraising) was a hallmark of the Obama campaign. With only five weeks to go in this competitive race, being nimble on-line could make all the difference in this contest.

Gillibrand makes first Drum reachout

Hillary Clinton won a lot of North Country accolades as New York's Senator for how quickly she delved into issues at Fort Drum. Her pursuit of military concerns won her a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Today, new Senator Kirsten Gillibrand made her first connection to Fort Drum, meeting with Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Mullen had recently visited Fort Drum.

The Democrat honed in on Drum's 3rd Brigade, currently in Afghanistan, in her meeting with Mullen. From Gillibrand's press release:

"I am pleased that as we refocus our mission in Afghanistan, we will ensure our soldiers have a longer break at home between missions. I will continue to work to provide the needed assistance for the men and women returning home and deliver the benefits our veterans have earned,” Senator Gillibrand continued.

It'll be interesting to see when Gillibrand makes her first visit to the sprawling base outside Watertown.

Siena Poll Shocker: Tedisco leads overall, but trails Murphy in North Country

Republican Jim Tedisco has an "early" 46-34% lead over Democrat Scott Murphy, according to Siena College's brand new poll. I put "early" in quotes because the clock is ticking fast in this special election season.

Here's one shocker: Republican Tedisco is polling strongest in the Capital Region, while Democrat Murphy is running strongest in the North Countgry.

According to Siena, a lot of voters are still listening before making up their minds.

"Jim Tedisco currently has a 12-point lead over Scott Murphy in a distrit that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "And one of every five likely voters says that they have not yet made a choice in this special election."

Siena found that Murphy, who lives in Glens Falls, enjoys a 2-point lead in the northern end of the district. Tedisco, on the other hand, has powered to a 2o-point lead in Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties.

The Democrat's big hurdle is still the lack of name recognition. Sixty percent of respondents told Siena they don't know enough about Murphy to have an opinion about him.

The Republican's big hurdle? He hasn't put this one away yet. Tedisco's team would surely love to be above 50% right now.

Five weeks to go to the finish line.

Mixed messages

Democrats are busy defending the 8,500+ earmarks stuffed into the $410 billion spending bill the House passed yesterday. Only $8 billion (only!) is made up of pork - most of the money funds the government's day-to-day operations. Still, a day after their president pledged to reign in spending and cut the deficit in half by the end of his term, this bill is a hard sell on top of the nearly $800 billion stimulus package.

Republicans, including John McHugh, are sending mixed messages of their own. Not surprisingly, GOP leaders are slamming the bill as little more than big, fat slabs of bacon. From the New York Times:

Republicans, however, did not mince words in describing the spending bill as wasteful. And one watchdog group said the bill provided nearly $8 billion for more than 8,500 pet projects favored by lawmakers, including $1.7 million for a honey bee laboratory in Weslaco, Tex.; $346,000 for research on apple fire blight in Michigan and New York; and $1.5 million for work on grapes and grape products, including wine.

OK. Well, that same watchdog group could easily have frowned upon these "pet projects": $95,000 for a mountain mining exhibit? Half a million for a sewer system in a town we've never heard of? $350,000 for video cameras on the border in the middle of nowhere? $95,000 for a rail station practically in Quebec?

Those are all member items for Republican John McHugh, ones he was proud enough to send out press releases about even as his party butchers the legislation as wasteful spending.

Member items? Or pork? Fact is, one person's pork is another person's critical project. You can bet Raquette Lake, Canastota, Franklin County, and Rouses Point don't consider these projects "pork".

New poll out this morning for NY 20th Race

Capital Confidential is reporting that the Siena Research Institute will release a poll this morning, gauging the race for the 20th Congressional district special election.

Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco are the top candidates.

Uncertain whether Libertarian Eric Sundwall will be measured, though it would be interesting to know if he's drawing support from either of the two main party candidates.

This will be the first independent measure of where this race is going. Check back around 9:30 a.m. for an update.

The future of healthcare?

A massive healthcare merger was announced this week in Albany, according to a report in today's Times-Union. The deal consolidates two religious-based and two secular institutions into one massive health provider.

One wrinkle: the entire organization will likely follow Roman Catholic ethical guidelines, meaning no more abortions.

The facilities affected performed roughly 10 percent of the legal abortions in the Capital District last year. Read more about the change here.

Ogdensburg cheese plant sold

Tuesday, I reported on the state-ordered shutdown of the kosher cheese plant in Ogdensburg. The roof was leaking, and the cheese tested high for bacteria. It was a big deal because the place employed 80 people at one point, and was a destination for kosher milk farmers in Jefferson County.



Today we have news Toobro, LLC of Brooklyn has acquired Ahava Foods, the company that owned the plant before the city of Ogdensburg took it over for delinquent tax and utility payments. The company says it's already "poured hundreds of thousands of dollars" into the facility to re-certify and reopen it.

Tune in for more on this story on All Before Five and tomorrow on The 8 O'Clock Hour. We'll try to learn more about Toobro, as a google search turns up nothing but "love you too, Bro."

More GOP handwringing

I know it seems like piling on, after today's backlash against Bobby Jindal, but I'm increasingly convinced that the Beltway Media isn't offering a clear picture of the Republican Party's struggles.

The instinct in Washington is to report stories in a tit-for-tat way: "Get both sides of the story," is the oldest reportorial commandment there is.

But what do you do when the story is that one side of the story is collapsing? What do you do when one part of the argument has been reduced to angry mutters?

Think I overstate the case?

Consider these data points:

1. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is feuding with fellow Kentucky Senator, Jim Bunning, who in turn is feuding with NRSCC chairman John Cornyn (R-TX.) According to The Hill newspaper, Bunning is accusing his colleagues of dishonesty and threatening to sue his own party. Bunning is seen as deeply vulnerable and could lose a cherished Southern seat to a Democrat next year.

2. In an interview with the Washington Times, Utah's Republican governor, Jon Huntsman, called the Republican Party's House leadership "inconsequential, completely." He described the GOP as "gasping for air" and said the party needs "real ideas that put the country first, instead of party."

3. Two of the GOP's "Big Three" governors, Charlies Crist from Florida and Arnold Schwarzenegger from California, embraced the Democratic stimulus plan. These two governors represent more citizens than all the other Republican governors combined. Crist campaigned openly against his party and Schwarzenegger urged Republicans to be "team players" -- on President Obama's team.

4. Despite the popularity of the stimulus plan, Republican leaders are talking openly of challenging GOP lawmakers who supported it in next year's primaries. Target #1 appears to be Arlen Specter (R-PA), a moderate who may be the last man in Pennsylvania who can keep his seat out of the hands of the Democrats.

5. Yes, Bobby Jindal has become an issue. He's not Sarah Palin, but his performance this week was profoundly disappointing to anyone looking for fresh ideas, fresh energy, or keener political instincts. Conservative columnist David Brookes, in a post-speech interview, called Jindal's message "insane." The question: Where is the GOP's bench?

6. And finally, there's the empty playbook. This week, the conservative Weekly Standard ran an essay arguing that conservatism isn't dead. Never a good sign when a once-powerful movement is insisting that it has a pulse. Even worse when your arguments are unconvincing. To understand just how bleak the philosophical landscape has become for the GOP, you have to actually read the article. Really. No excerpt can do it justice.

And so here I beat my drum again: We need a stout, responsible, tuned-in Republican Party. Now perhaps more than ever.

So far, there's absolutely no sign that one exists at the national level.

(Okay, no more GOP hand-wringing for at least a week, I promise.)

Aubertine to head rural commission

Senate majority leader Malcolm Smith throws a little power Darrel Aubertine's way today. He'll officially name the Jefferson County Democrat to chair the state Legislative Commission on Rural Resources at a press conference at 1 this afternoon.

All I know about the Commission comes from the previous chairman's website. We'll have more details later this afternoon.

With the GOP already gunning for Aubertine's seat, it appears Smith wants to help Darrel make the case the North Country's voice is being heard in the majority party. He also gave Darrel chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee.

UPDATE: I read the press release wrong. The presser was at 1. The satellite feed for us reporters in the field is at 2:30...

The Republican dilemma

Wow.

On style points Bobby Jindal, the Republican governor from Louisiana, looked bad last night. Going up against Barack Obama, speech-to-speech, is a tough assignment.

But the substance of Jindal's comments were more troubling than his clumsy delivery.

Jindal presides over a state where Federal stimulus spending -- in the form of Hurricane Katrina spending -- literally defines the economy.

Taxpayers across the U.S. have bailed his state out, in every sense of the word.

His party also supported epic deficits to pay for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as vast expansions to Federal entitlement programs.

Yet now Jindal is suggesting that Federal spending in times of economic crisis is nothing more than pork.

You simply can't have it both ways.

The truth is that Republicans have grown just as addicted to spending taxpayer money as Democrats.

It's become a cliche to say that Democrats are tax-and-spenders, while the GOP is the party of borrow-and-spend. There's a sad truth in that cliche.

And the same goes here in the North Country. Generally conservative leaders espouse small government -- except when it comes to their towns and counties.

We want taxpayers in other parts of New York to subsidize our schools, our hospitals, our nursing homes, ourMedicaid services, our economic development projects, and our highways.

And yet we want to call ourselves fiscal conservatives.

This disconnect between philosophy and reality is THE Republian dilemma.

Until the GOP solves it, their leaders will continue to sound -- well, like Bobby Jindal.

Rep. King ponders Gillibrand challenge

Politico reports that Rep. Peter King - the most visible Republican in New York's Washington delegation - is seriously considering a run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

“I could very well run against Kirsten Gillibrand,” King says without hesitation. “I have $1.1 [million] or $1.2 million in my House account, but I can’t be raising money for the Senate until I set up a committee, so basically I’m assessing how much money would be available if I run.”

According to Politico, King was hoping to face Caroline Kennedy in 2010.

He also sounds a little lonely, though a Tedisco win in the 20th CD special election would give him some more GOP company in DC.

“We’re down 26-3 in House seats, and there’s nobody near me for almost 300 miles. Either I’m the strongest man alive or I’m toxic and ran everyone else away. I don’t know which.”

Fat Tuesday, North Country-style

Today is Mardi Gras down in New Orleans. My music blog, To the Beat, has some music and parade cam links you might want to check out.

Burlington has the most vibrant Mardi Gras celebration I know about in the North Country. But little Potsdam is trying to make up ground. Here's a video from the first annual Potsdam Mardi Gras parade held last Saturday - cinematography by alert listener Sean Partridge. Laissez les bon temps roulez!

Will Tedisco lead the GOP revival?

Jim Tedisco, speaking Friday in Lake Placid, described himself as "a domino."

If his election campaign tips the right way for Republicans - he suggested - it could open the door to Rudy Giuliani for governor and George Pataki for Senate.

In theory, Tedisco should be the odds-on favorite to win the 2oth CD special election.

But if he can't pull it off, in New York's most Republican-heavy district, then things look very dire indeed for the GOP.

Conservatives need a sign that the Republican brand isn't truly crippled Upstate. Tedisco hopes to be that sign.

The Fairness Doctrine

President Barack Obama has said he has zero interest in reviving the old Fairness Doctrine rules, which, in theory, required radio and television stations to grant equal and fair representation to all sides of political debates.

The FD was scrapped during the Reagan years and that single move rewired America's political discourse, giving rise to a generation of right-wing talkers: from Rush Limbaugh to Sean Hannity, from Michael Savage to Laura Ingraham.

Oh - and don't forget Bill O'Reilly. And those are just the national name-brand talkers. There are also dozens more AM jocks with local or regional followings.

Progressives have failed to create a radio-equivalent of this message machine. There's a pretty complicated debate over why. Are liberal talkers dull? I don't buy that. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert? They do fine on TV.

Others claim that media corporations have zero interest in broadcasting the views of liberals. Again, I'm not buying it. Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow are populr fixtures at MSNBC, a network owned by General Electric.

I think a big part of the "problem" may be NPR.

Public radio attracts about 30 million listeners a week.

That's about twice Rush's numbers. (Granted, public radio is on the air a lot more hours than Rush, who produces "only" 15 hours a week of radio.)

And while we know that public radio attracts a broad mix of political listeners, I do think a lot of liberals are loathe to give up their Morning Edition and their Fresh Air.

Which means that Air America and other lib-talk efforts have a tough hill to climb finding a sustainable, viable audience.

Circling back to conservative talk radio, I don't see any sign that right-wing folks have anything to worry about. Bringing back the Fairness Doctrine would be well-night impossible at this point.

But I do think Republicans have a serious question figuring out what to do with folks like Rush and Sean. Are those guys really the intellectual center of the conservative movement?

Are they really the de facto agenda setters? And if so, what does that say about the future of the GOP?

A smidgeon

Ever since Barack Obama became president (even before, really) commentators and political insiders have been declaring the Obama Administration a soaring success or a crash-and-burn failure, and everything in between. And it's not even March. Of the first year.

This page puts time, and our lack of patience, in perspective. Thanks to Beat Authority contributor, Delaney Flushboy, for the heads up.

Live music and more on Fridays

Fridays during the "8 o'clock Hour" we'll do our best to bring you some live music, stories, theater and poetry in the mornings. Consider it our way of celebrating performing arts and the start of the weekend, for most of us, at least.

Earlier this month, we welcomed a group of SUNY Potsdam theater students into the studio. They performed an excerpt from Amiri Baraka's play "Slave Ship". A Lake Placid teen joins us for live piano music next month. Let me know if you have an idea for "Live on Friday", email me: todd@ncpr.org

In the meantime, listen again to music from yesterday's "String Fever" show and the first ever on-air bluegrass jam session. Here's the acoustic octet in the studio with "Liberty".

On Tedisco and that cartoon yesteday

The NY Post's controversial "chimpanzee" cartoon is still drawing heat...and comment.
Our story on the stimulus package's influence in the 20th CD race this morning prompted this just in from our political cartoonist, Marquil:

Hey --

So I'm sitting here at the drawing board (aka dining room table) trying to come up with the appropriate analogy for Tedisco's ignoring questions on how he would vote on the stimulus bill. So I reflexively start drawing the proverbial 800-lb. gorilla-in-the-room. I didn't get too far before the appropriateness editor who keeps rooms in my prefrontal cortex (and often sleeps in) told me that, thanks to NY Post cartoonist Sean Delonas, all simian metaphors for the stimulus bill are now permanently off limits. Happily, the editor also said he would have scotched the cartoon anyway because the 800-lb gorilla is so hopelessly cliché and is the hallmark of a mediocre cartoonist.

For the record, and from my experience of having some of my more obnoxious cartoons published by the Post over the years, I don't for a second believe the editors were unaware of the cartoon's connotations. They have a long track record of pushing the boundaries of good taste in their choice of cartoons. I do, however, credit them for standing behind their cartoonist. That's always nice to see.

Mark

Obama snags a beaver tail?

Of all the reportage of President Obama's visit to Ottawa today, this item from the CBC may be the oddest.

But it also speaks to the Canadians' passionate admiration for America's 44th President - the 12th to visit our neighbor to the north.

Tune in tomorrow for more coverage of the President's Ottawa trip - including David Sommerstein's skate along the Rideau Canal to reach the joint press conference with Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. That's on Morning Edition and the 8 O'clock Hour tomorrow.

Trade expected to top Ottawa agenda

President Obama is now meeting with Canadian leaders behind closed doors. The speculation among media types is that trade will top the agenda.

Obama recently said trade between the U.S. and Canada totals some $1.5 trillion (with a "t") every day.

Accusations of protectionism are flying on both sides of the border. The U.S. federal stimulus bill, signed this week by Obama, contained language directing government agencies to buy American, if possible.

This rankled Canadians, even as "Buy Canadian" messages began circulating over the past few days among unions north of the border.

More on this issue and other aspects of the President's Canadian visit on All Before Five this afternoon at 4:45.

You can also watch a live video stream of outdoor gatherings and events on Ottawa's Parliament Hill at cbc.ca.

Life inside The Bubble is...boring

I'm in the press center in Parliament's center block. We're all waiting around for President Obama's and PM Harper's press conference in about 45 minutes. I just chatted with NPR's White House reporter, Scott Horsely, a super-nice guy (maybe Martha will drop in a photo).

For a job that's considered the top of the news biz, the White House beat can be pretty darn boring, lots of waiting around for a 10 minute presser. People are thrilled to chat, just to have some way to pass the time.

The real action is outside. I watched as Obama's "Beast" drove up, and he got out and waived to the (not as big as expected) crowd. People were thrilled, then filed quickly for the exits, having seen what they came for.

I went to a nearby restaurant to grab a bite. In walk a gaggle of 18-year-old young women, squealing with delight to their waiting mothers. "We saw him! We saw him!" A Canadian says that's what Pierre Trudeau was like - and he was single.

It is amazing to see up close how young people are so engaged in a president.

I'll have actual "news" after the press conference on All Before Five. Then gotta skate back to the car and head home!

A warm Canadian greeting

The CBC is offering a live stream of commentary on President Barack Obama's visit to Ottawa.

One of the network's experienced news hands commented that - compared to visits by past U.S. presidents - security is tighter and the crowd trying to catch a glimpse of Obama is much larger.

He then added, "The only danger seems to be if the crowd got their hands on Obama, they'd cuddle him to death."

The President has a popularity rating around 80 percent among Canadians, much higher than the nation's Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.

More updates to come.

Skating into Obama-mania this morning

That's right, our reporter, David Sommerstein, decided that parking at Dow's Lake, and skating the Rideau Canal (nearly 5 miles...) into downtown Ottawa would be a good way to get to the press conference with Pres. Obama today...and he was right.
He's on the scene, has got his press credentials --- he even ran into our Ottawa correspondents Lucy Martin (left) and Karen Kelly.
David will be checking in with All Before Five host Jonathan Brown this afternoon. He'll be reporting for NCPR tomorrow during the 8 O'clock Hour,and is on the rundown for a piece for NPR's Morning Edition as well. It's that skating thing...our NPR editor said her colleagues in Washington were "capitvated" by the thought that someone would skate to a press conference.

Update at 11:45 -- four helicopters in the air, shadowing the motorcade and arrival at Parliament Hill. Obama waved, then joined PM Stephen Harper.

About that $25 billion stimulus

This morning there's news of the Albany skull session on divvying-up the state's many billions of federal stimulus money. There's concern that since there are no lawmakers in the room, the distribution may not be fair. No further comment on that -- given the state of politics and governance in Albany.
The Washington Post's David Ignatius has a lot more to say about how the politics of passing the federal package is distracting us from the substance of the crisis and the stimulus strategy.
At the state and local level, he writes:

...the impact of the downturn is severe and immediate: States are required to balance their budgets, so they don't have the Washington option of printing money. They have to raise taxes or cut spending -- both of which could make the downturn even worse.

and...

...most states have said they will cut services and payrolls. At least 40 states are planning such cuts, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The proposed cuts are scary: At least 28 states are contemplating reductions in public health programs; at least 22 are targeting services for the elderly or disabled.

According to the Posts's numbers, New York's budget deficit, as a percentage of the state budget, is third-worst in the country... worse, by the way, than California's.

A plan for all those surplus cars and trucks

Nobody's buying cars and trucks this winter, so I have an idea for a stimulus plan.

We've already had trucks tip through the ice on Lake George and Upper Saranac Lake. Now the Press-Republican is reporting a truck through the ice in Lake Champlain near Ti.

While driving on the frozen lake just north of International Paper, the 2004 Ford Ranger reportedly hit a pressure crack and submerged.

Police found the vehicle's owner, Michael J. Curtiss, 31, of Meriden, Conn., and his friend Scott D. Soule, 30, from Lebanon, Conn., walking up railroad tracks when they were stopped.

These guys are on to something. I say we hold a huge truck rally -- invite people from all over the US -- then wait for the thaw.

Most of our houses are underwater. Why shouldn't our cars be, too? Call it the Polar Bear Plunge Relief Program.

Two of the trucks that have led the way this winter -- on Upper Saranac and Lake Champlain -- are still mired in the bottom mud.

But you can bet their owners have already been to the nearest used car lot, looking to get back behind the wheel.

If they're really patriotic, they'll be back out on the ice next year.

You wanna pay for that truck?

General Motors is asking Congress - U.S. taxpayers, really - for another $30 billion. In exchange, the carmaker will phase out all brands except Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC.

If GM can remake itself into a viable carmaker, it has to have Chevy and Cadillac. The two brands are iconic and the engineering investments in both will pay off over time. That is if the company survives.

Even Buick makes sense. Sales are up. Critics hail these cars as some of the best on the road. In China, Buicks are considered one of the ultimate status symbols. The brand is a GM success story.

But GMC?

It’s a line of trucks and SUVs - and every single model is a duplicate of a Chevy. Really. They’re the exact same vehicles. Some get a GMC grill ornament, some get the Chevrolet cross. But in many cases, these vehicles roll off the same assembly lines.

Why do Chevy trucks and SUVs need dopplegangers?

This is an attempt by GM to keep part of its dealer network alive, which is kind of admirable. But the profusion of dealers is one reason that GM is sinking. In the same market that has one Toyota or Honda dealer, GM has four or more. So, if a buyer wants a cheaper deal on a vehicle, s/he can take a quote from one dealer and shop it around to the next.

Deciding which dealers should close shop is heart wrenching. In just about every one, you’ll find generations of employees and customers - and the kind of community investment that few industries can match. Lining the walls, you’ll see pictures of Little League teams, food banks, parades, and even some hospital patients - all sponsored and helped by dealers. And if they close, they could take some local newspapers and TV stations with them. Car dealers advertise more - and more reliably - than almost any other business.

But - as so many economists point out - we’re standing on the edge of an economic abyss. It’s time for tough decisions. What do you think? Do you want your money going to GMC or is it time the brand went the way of Oldsmobile, Packard, and Duesenberg?

Will high speed rail bypass the North Country?

Will the new high speed rail network proposed as part of the stimulus package bypass the North Country?

Check out this map of the US DOT's "high speed rail corridor designations." Instead of running a route north from New York City to Montreal -- a route that would pass through the Champlain Valley -- the plan calls for a dog-leg to Boston and then a route through the White Mountains of New Hampshire and the Green Mountains of Vermont.

At least NY isn't CA or IL

Okay, so New York's political landscape is a shambles, with Governor Paterson scrambling, New York's newly-minted Senator Gillibrand still trying to find her balance, and the budget imploding.

But compare us with California, where a $40+billion dollar deficit has rammed against a TRULY dysfunctional legislature, and we look pretty good.

Give me Albany over Sacramento any day. (Though per capita our budget shortfall isn't all that much better.)

And then compare our political snafus with the continuing soap opera of ousted Governor Rod Blagojevich and his tainted protege, Sen. Roland Burris.

If we're a soap opera, Illinois is actual opera. And for Sen. Burris, the fat lady may just be warming up her pipes.

Well, that didn't last long

Yesterday, I blogged about Politico's report that President Obama was moving slowly on his Afghanistan strategy. Well, not that slow.

Obama announced yesterday he will send an additional 17,000 troops to Afghanistan to join Fort Drum's 3rd BCT. The New York Times reports Obama's fight against Al-Qaeda appears similar to Bush's so far.

Polls: Paterson, Gillibrand, Murphy struggle

Poll numbers are up this week for the Democratic team that faces a wave of elections over the next nine months:

Voters were quizzed about Governor David Paterson, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and House hopeful Scott Murphy.

And the numbers ain't pretty.

The House

Let's start at the bottom of that list: Republican Jim Tedisco's campaign released poll numbers this week that show him with a 50-29% lead over Democrat Scott Murphy.

Murphy has zero name recognition, a hurdle he'll have to overcome in just over a month of campaigning. But according to one report, he's already raised $600,000.

The Senate

Next up, Sen. Gillibrand. She faces a special election next year and then another contest in 2012. A Quinnipiac poll shows her losing to fellow Democrat Carolyn McCarthy AND to "Undecided."

Gillibrand is a strong campaigner and fundraiser, but the "rifle under the bed" stuff is problematic.

She also runs the risk of being painted as a habitual triangulator.

The Governor

But the big loser in all this shuffling of cards appears to be Governor Paterson himself. The same Q poll shows him losing to fellow Democrat Andrew Cuomo by a 55-23% margin.

How can Cuomo resist taking on that fight?

Meanwhile, Paterson is tied 43-43% with Republican Rudy Giuliani.

So how's this for a doomsday scenario for Democrats?

Two years after Gillibrand holds her House seat, Sen. Clinton rises to the Obama Administration and Gov. Paterson takes control in Albany, we could see a Republican sweep.

The GOP might begin its East Coast comeback in one of the bluest states in the Northeast.
Governor Guiliani, Sen. Pataki and Rep. Tedisco? What do you think?

Ad wars underway in 20th Special Election

Jim Tedisco and Scott Murphy are up and running in the special election ad war.

Here's Democrat Scott Murphy's "Sunday Dinner" ad, designed to introduce him to voters, most of whom have never heard his name.

Republican Jim Tedisco, the Assembly minority leader, also goes domestic with "One of Us."
Notice that there's no mention of his years in the Albany legislature.

Both men have busy calendars this week:

Murphy has an appearance on Thursday in Poughkeepsie with House majority leader Steny Hoyer(D-Md) and "local labor leaders."

Tedisco is in Lake Placid on Friday for a legislative luncheon sponsored by the North Country Chamber.

Obama watch

Things are shaping up for Pres. Obama's visit to Ottawa Thursday. NCPR will have two people on hand. David Sommerstein and Lucy Martin. David has press credentials...we don't yet know what access he'll have. Lucy says she thinks she'll be in the crowd on Parliament Hill. BTW -- she could wave three flags if she chose: Canadian, American (because she's a citizen), and Hawaiian (because she was born there, as was Obama).
Opposition in Canada think the Harper government is overmanaging the event...to keep "the glory that is Obama" to himself:

Mr. Martin attempted on Friday to introduce a motion in the House of Commons that would formally invite President Obama to speak to a joint session of both houses of parliament during his February 19 visit.

Members from the Bloc Québécois and Liberals on Friday gave consent to Mr. Martin to introduce the motion and bring it to a vote, but the Conservatives in the House refused.

“They don’t want the obvious, blatant juxtaposition of a neo-conservative leader in Canada and a progressive liberal leader in the United States,” Mr. Martin said.

Something else coming up -- David was in Lowville last week, talking with local business people, and visiting the social services department. His three-part report starts tomorrow morning during the 8 O'clock Hour.

The problem with the GOP & tax cuts

In the on-going debate about the future of the American economy, Republicans have articulated a single, clear response: It's tax-cuts that will show us the way.

Fair enough. But it's also fair to ask pointed questions about the relevance of a tax-cutting agenda in the current economic climate.

1. Are taxes really high enough to stifle economic activity? Put another way, are there small businesses and entrepreneurs (or executives at major corporations) who are delaying expansion and job creation because their tax hit is too high?

I'm skeptical. During the 50s and 60s, American tax rates were far higher -- and wealth-creation soared.

2. Are investors holding their money out of the stock market because capital gains taxes are punitive?

Again, that seems like a stretch to me. Here's conservative David Frum's take:

[Republicans] are offering a clapped-out package of 1980s-vintage solutions, including capital gains tax cuts. Capital gains! Who has any capital gains to be taxed in the first place?

3. As a political strategy: Are there enough independent and "undecided" Americans out there whose primary concern is the income tax rate that this message will boost the GOP's electoral chances?

I'm doubtful.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Republicans can ride back to the a majority on the same old tax-cut mantra, but Frum doesn't seem to think so.

"If we're to make progress in 2010, we have to look serious," he wrote. "This week we looked not only irrelevant, but clueless and silly."

A different commander-in-chief?

We heard this morning the 10th Mountain Division's 3rd brigade is on the ground in Afghanistan and already engaged in combat. It was widely expected three more Army or Marine brigades would follow them quickly.

But according to Politico, President Obama is mulling his strategy in a more deliberate manner than his predecessor:

Rather than sign off quickly on all or part of a long-standing Pentagon request for three Army combat brigades and Marine units, totaling over 10,000 troops, Obama and his aides are questioning the timetable, the mission and even the composition of the new forces, officials familiar with the deliberations said.

Afghanistan - famously called "the place where empires go to die" - poses at least as much of a danger to U.S. soldiers as Iraq. It would do the Pentagon well to think about exactly what it wants to accomplish there before committing more troops.

Our Year of Hard Choices

The News Department is starting to hear from people who are interested in our new "Year of Hard Choices" project -- we're looking for people to be sounding boards, tell their own stories, or otherwise contribute. Thanks all; we are sorting through and will be in touch. And we are hoping for many more partners!
This response also came in:

It seems to me that we all know that economic times are tough and getting tougher; how could anyone not know when every news outlet in the nation has doom and gloom as their lead stories daily. I do understand that this is very serious. Most everyone I know is already aware that it is a time to be conservative with spending and resources. It just seems to me that the constant stream of dire news will just get people even more scared and depressed and that will serve to perpetuate and exacerbate the already poor economic climate.

So -- to be clear -- however hard the circumstances of this economic downturn are, we assume that many of the choices people in the region make will be wise ones, and that we will be sharing stories of resilience and perseverance, of new resources, new paths, new life. That will be the "good news" side of this big story.
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What do you think of the GOP "insurgency"?

I have to admit I'm a bit shocked, given the degree of the economic crisis unfolding around us, that the Republican Party has chosen to close ranks and declare war on President Obama and the majority Democrats. Texas Congressman Pete Sessions likened the strategy to a jihadist "insurgency". Rush himself wants the stimulus package "and everything else [Obama's] doing to fail".

Really? Hundreds of thousands of people are without jobs - quite literally scared for their lives - and the GOP is playing the party of "we want to see it get worse"? Obviously, I'm no political consultant, but I do wonder if this is the recipe for success for a party wounded bigtime in two consecutive elections. Saturday Night Live's already on to it.

The North Country's only Republican in Washington, Congressman John McHugh, may not have reached the rhetorical extremes of Rush, but the explanation of his "no" vote on the stimulus package was very harsh and in harmony with his party's leaders.

I'm really curious: what do you think? Is this the right way for the GOP?

For Gillibrand, a double-barreled problem?

Politico and Newsday are reporting on Kirsten Gillibrand's gun ownership, pointing out that she "and her husband, Jonathan, keep two rifles under their bed to protect their upstate home."

Newsday's Tom Brune observes that neither Sen. Gillibrnad nor her husband is a hunter, but quotes her saying, "If I want to protect my family, if I want to have a weapon in the home, that should be my right."

Gillibrand told the paper that she takes measures to protect her children from the guns, but declined to say exactly how.

According to Brune, the revelation "drew headshaking from Paul Helmke, president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, who expressed concern about storing guns under beds, where children can find them and where burglars typically look first."

It's still unclear whether this is a distraction or an issue that will haunt Gillibrand as she looks toward a possible primary challenge next year.

America's wacky Senate

America's weirdly undemocratic Senate has been a preoccupation of mine for years. It was on display once again with last week's stimulus debate.

Two Senators from Maine, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, together represent a total of 1.3 million people -- roughly as many as live in the Buffalo NY metro area.

Yet they managed to dramatically reshape one of the most important pieces of legislation in postwar U.S. history.

Here's Sen. Collins' description of her importance, during the lead-up to the vote, from the Washington Post.

Just before Christmas, Susan Collins, a moderate Republican senator, was driving alone on that road, headed to her parents' home near the Canadian border in the tiny town of Caribou, when her cellphone rang. It was Joseph R. Biden Jr., the soon-to-be vice president, calling to talk up the Obama administration's economic stimulus plan.

The call kept getting cut off. Once. Twice. Three times. But Biden kept calling back.

"I was very impressed with his persistence," Collins recalled in an interview.

On ABC's This Week, California Democrat Rep. Maxine Waters pointed out some of the urban-focused cuts to the stimulus, demanded by those Maine lawmakers.

"Do you know we reduced the neighborhood stabilization program by a couple of billion dollars? We reduced Head Start, Early Start, school construction."

So what do you think? Is the tail wagging the dog?

Is it appropriate that lawmakers who represent a about .5% (not 5% but 0.5%...) of America's population wield this much power?

Best Carnival weekend ever?

This is either my ninth or tenth Winter Carnival in Saranac Lake and - wow - this one's been picture-perfect.

There were some worries early on about whether organizers had enough money to pull the whole thing off - but thanks to about a billion volunteers, it's been amazing.

Despite some rain, our Ice Palace has held up, and it's fabulous.

Actually, there are four (!) palaces this year: a pirate ship, a small blockhouse right on the shore of Lake Flower, a glowing blue pyramid, and the main palace.

Today, four ski-planes winged in and landed on the ice, drawing tourists and locals out onto Lake Flower to look them over.

Definitely a cool way to tour the North Country mid-winter.

And the parade yesterday was almost too long - the floats just kept coming.

The Adirondack lawnchair ladies were out in force, along with the Bearded Men marchers (think hirsute activists...) and one pirate ship float actually fired confetti canons into the crowd.

And people are still talking about Joey Izzo's piano rendition of Styx's "Come Sail Away" (nautical theme, get it?) at the Rotary show Friday night.

(Read the Daily Enterprise's account here.)

It was definitely the sort of weekend that gives you the mojo to ride out these last weeks of hard winter...

Two questions for Republicans who said No

New York's entire Republican delegation (okay, that's a small team) said No to the stimulus package backed by President Barack Obama and Democratic lawmakers.

Congressional candidate Jim Tedisco has also said that he would have voted against the bill.

So far, their arguments have been unconvincing. Here are two questions they should prepare to answer.

First, Republican lawmakers have long made it their mission to bring as much pork as possible home to their districts. (All politicians do this.)

During the last month, many of these same lawmakers have filled my in-box at NCPR with announcements of new taxpayer funding for projects in their districts.

On the campaign trail, these are the "successes" that they trumpet.

But now, at a time when many economists say the country needs an immediate stimulus -- and possibly a much-larger economic stimulus than this package -- they vote No. Why?

Second, some of these same lawmakers have talked about the fact that this bill will expand the federal deficit. Or, as Rep. McHugh puts it, the bill will borrow money from our grandchildren.

But Republicans have already presided over the largest expansion of the Federal deficit in our nation's history, from 2000 through 2006, a period when they held total sway over spending in Washington.

In his book, former Republican Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill wrote that former Vice President Dick Cheney said, "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter."

What's more, the tax cuts that Republicans are proposing for their stimulus would blow just as large a hole in the national debt as Democratic spending.

So what gives?

If Republican lawmakers voted against this stimulus based on their convictions, then they've done the right thing.

But if, as Republican Sen. Arlen Specter suggested, they did it out of lockstep loyalty to their party's leadership, then they're in trouble.

Here's what Sen. Specter told Huffingtonpost.

"I think there are a lot of people in the Republican caucus who are glad to see this action taken without their fingerprints, without their participation," he said.

Specter was asked, How many of your colleagues?

"I think a sizable number," he said. "I think a good part of the caucus agrees with the person I quoted, but I wouldn't want to begin to speculate on numbers."

McHugh votes No on "so-called stimulus"

Congressman John McHugh joined a unified Republican front Friday, voting No on President Barack Obama's stimulus plan.

He expressed regret that the bill wasn't one he could support, but added, "Sadly, my hopes were not even remotely met."

McHugh says only about 26% of the bill's cost will go to tax cuts.

President Obama's supporters have claimed that the measure will create or sustain more than 7,000 jobs in McHugh's district.

McHugh sounded a deeply skeptical note:

I am hard-pressed to understand how tens of billions of dollars, that our government doesn’t presently have but will have to borrow from our children and grandchildren to increase programs with little or no job creating potential, will do any real good in addressing the current crisis.

Indeed, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently found, if this bill is enacted, the gross national product will be worse off after 2014 and result in lower wages for workers. Why would Congress want to pass a bill that is projected to make our economy worse over the long-term, not better?

Covering Libertarians and other "Third Party" Candidates

A couple of posters have begun zinging me pretty hard about NCPR's lack of coverage of the Libertarian candidate in the 20th CD race.

Here's John Warren's take on my decision to not include Eric Sundwall in my opening piece about the special election.

That's a disgrace, it's un-American and anti-Democratic. The Republican candidate doesn't even live in the district and you give him more credit then a candidate that does? There is no excuse for this. You owe us serious coverage of all the candidates, not just your hand-picked ones.

It's a legitimate criticism -- worth airing and discussing.

My job is to reflect reality in my stories. So I will be covering Mr. Sundwall, though I'll generally treat him as an "issue" or a "protest" candidate.

How much coverage he receives will depend on a) how interesting, thoughtful and compelling he turns out to be; and b) the degree to which his ideas influence the campaign debate.

(Obviously, if Mr. Sundwall demonstrates somehow that he has a reasonable chance of winning, I'd certainly change my tune. THAT would be a great story...)

Third party candidates -- and their supporters -- typically want the media to treat them as equals with their Republican and Democratic opponents.

But in most instances, they haven't done the work to establish their parties as viable political choices.

Not because their ideas are bad, necessarily -- sometimes their ideas are fascinating or compelling.

But because they haven't organized, built a party apparatus, raised enough money to campaign, etc.

(Some choose not to do so for ideological reasons, but the result is the same; they can't win.)

Critics like to suggest that reporters create a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy by making judgments of this sort.

By not covering alternative candidates, we make it impossible for them to compete.

But the vast majority of grassroots organizing in politics goes on with absolutely no media coverage whatsoever.

A lot of unpaid Democrats and Republicans have been volunteering for months (and years), raising money and building networks to prepare for this election.

Aggressive and well-organized third parties can do the same -- I lived in Germany when the Green Party elected its first members to Parliament.

It just takes work.

If third parties want more coverage, they might begin by electing members to local government. (Often this only requires a few hundred votes.)

They could build a track record of shaping public policy and develop a level of institutional credibility.

So there's a peek behind the curtain, an honest look at how I make this kind of editorial decision. Let me know what you think.

Judd Gregg's message to Mr. Obama

New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg just did President Barack Obama a huge favor.

He clarified, once and for all, the fact that the Republican Party is ideologically immune to bipartisan overtures.

Sen. Gregg is a relatively moderate lawmaker from a relatively moderate state. He's no fire-breather, as his winsome withdrawal speech made clear.

But the philosophy of his party is so starkly different from Mr. Obama's vision of where the country should go that Sen. Gregg simply couldn't go along.

Consider for a moment how dramatic that decision is.

Sen. Gregg had the opportunity to influence one of the most important policy debates in post-War American history.

He might have worked from within the Democratic administration to shape and soften some of the economic provisions that he disapproves of.

If Mr. Obama proves to be successful, then Sen. Gregg and the GOP would have helped to avert a dire economic disaster.

It's also worth pointing out that the latest polls show that the stimulus measure is still broadly popular.

What's more, Mr. Obama is pushing a range of measures (government interventions in the marketplace, stimulus spending, etc.) that Republican presidents have embraced in the past -- including Richard Nixon, George W. Bush and George Bush Sr.

Democrats can also point to substantive points of compromise in the bill, which attracted the support of three other Northeastern Senators.

If Joe Lieberman and Arlen Specter support it, then it can hardly be outside the mainstream of American politics.

But the Republican Party as a whole still very much wants the country to go in a different direction.

And unless Barack Obama is willing to follow them, he should take Sen. Gregg's message to heart.

A real fight in the 20th

When I first came to the North Country ten years ago, Democrats simply couldn't field A-list candidates for big races.

Their candidates were zealous and well-intentioned, but rarely posed much of a threat. The political season often began and ended with the Republican primary.

The Big Republican Wall began to crack with Hillary Clinton's strong showing in the region in the 2000 Senate race.

Then came Darrel Aubertine, who claimed a victory in the River District Assembly seat in 2002.

A couple of years later, Kirsten Gillibrand shocked the Upstate political culture with her upset win over Republican John Sweeney.

Aubertine managed to claim and hold a state Senate seat in 2008, while Gillibrand won re-election handily.

Now, Democrats seem to have found their institutional legs, developing a real bench.

They have recruited Scott Murphy, a young businessman from Glens Falls, with an attractive family and authentic North Country ties.

(Gillibrand and Clinton were both vulnerable to the "carpetbagger" label.)

Murphy looks like a natural on the stump and he's running in a season when Democrats still enjoy a cultural advantage.

I think this is still Jim Tedisco's race to lose -- he's a veteran campaigner with an established war chest in a district with a 70,000 voter GOP advantage.

But it's worth noting that this time it was the Republicans who went outside the district for their candidate, while Democrats found their talent right here at home.

Republican National GOP chairman Michael Steele predicted that this would be a "battle royale."

I think he's right. The Democrats have positioned themselves to make this a real fight.

Not so many years ago, that would have been unthinkable.

How many jobs will the stimulus create in the North Country?

There's a lot of debate over just how meaningful these numbers are, but the White House has offered estimates of what the stimulus package will do for each congressional district.

In the 20th NY district, which includes a big chunk of the eastern Adirondacks, the Champlain Valley, and the Glens Falls area, the jobs benefit is placed at 8,000.

The biggest population chunk in the 20th is further south and in a ring around the Capital District (it's a weirdly gerrymandered district), so it's unclear how much of that would trickle north.

In the 23rd NY district, which is far more North Country specific, the White House puts the number at 7,800.

The 24th NY district, which includes Old Forge and a big (but mostly people-free) chunk of the western Adirondacks, stands to gain 7,600 jobs.

I know, I know - these numbers are big puffy political promises at this point. And because the White House describes these as jobs that will be created or "saved" it will be hard to yardstick success.

What do you think? If the stimulus does work that well, will it be enough to soften the downturn in the region?

20th Congressional election: March 31st

The Albany Times-Union and Politico.com both report Gov. Paterson will set the election to fill the seat vacated by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand for March 31st. He's to make the official proclamation Feb.23rd.

Heroes?

The last few weeks, I've been watching the TV show Heroes (on DVD) with my son Nicholas.

The premise of the show is that normal people discover that they have super-powers...and a destiny to save the world.

It's charming, exciting - great entertainment - and I think the show reveals a lot about our hunger for saviors.

For better or worse, the last few years, Americans have seen a lot of our heroes unmasked.

After 9/11, the CIA was touted as a batch of James Bond (or maybe Jack Bauer) types.

But they got it entirely wrong about the Soviet Union, and then bungled the intelligence on Iraq.

President Bush's war council looked like rocket scientists during the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, but proved to have feet of clay.

Even our collective fantasies about America's armed services have been shaken, by skyrocketing rates of PTSD and soldier-suicides.

And those Masters of the Universe on Wall Street? I've been watching today, as they were grilled by Congress.

“How can you justify paying bonuses to managers who are running the company into the ground?" asked NY Rep. Carolyn Maloney.

Yikes. There's a bumper crop of disillusionment out there.

The latest hero we've hoisted onto the pedestal seems to be President Barack Obama.
But events of the last two weeks show that he too is mortal.

Which means that we better brace ourselves. Without a Superman to lift this economy over the chasm, all of us "muggles" could face some tough days ahead.

A Libertarian hat in the 20th ring

The Adirondack Daily Enterprise profiles the third option in the fast-moving 20th district special election: Libertarian Eric Sundwall from Columbia County.

He's chairman of the Libertarian Party of New York. Here's Nathan Brown's treatment in the ADE:

Sundwall is an information technology consultant who lives in Niverville in Columbia County with his wife and two children. He produces and hosts the cable-access television program "Capital Outsider."

The paper quotes Sundwall's press release, in which he argues that "the people of the 20th District are tired of the machine politics of a smoke-filled room."

Sundwall failed to make the ballot in 2006 and will have to gather 3500 signatures to make the cut this year.

He'll face Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco.

How will a third option affect the race? Comments welcome.

Post Star reports Madoff scam hits farms in Saratoga County

The Glens Falls Post Star is reporting today that a pair of thoroughbred horse farms in Saratoga County will likely be sold because the owner was hit by Bernard Madoff's alleged Ponzi scheme.

Jeffrey Tucker owns more than 400 acres of farmland at two locations, but his investment firm reportedly lost more than $7 billion in the scam.

Here's the Post-Star's treatment:

Tucker's investment firm placed $7.5 billion of its clients' money with Madoff's company. Fairfield Greenwich Group learned in early December the money was included in the fraudulent "investments" made by Madoff.

According to the newspaper, the farms are home to dozens of racehorses and one of the sites includes "the state's first synthetic racetrack surface."

No sale price has been listed.

Questioning free trade, Part Three

The economic crisis is causing far more Americans to rethink the last fifty years of national trade policy.

A poll conducted last year found that 51% of respondents held negative opinions of "free" trade, up from 35% in 2000.

The globalization of our economy has had bipartisan support, with Democratic President Bill Clinton pushing through controversial trade bills such as NAFTA.

But now only four in ten Americans, according to the CNN/Opinion Research survey, still believe that unfettered trade will stimulate economic growth.

Not surprisingly, those who wish to see America stay the course are terrified.

"This paints a picture of the Europeanization of America," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Speaking of the Democratic Party's stimulus plan, McConnell lamented:

"Where are we going to leave the country in 2 years if we take all of these steps. We will have taken a dramatic move in the direction of turning America into Western Europe."

Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist and a former Bush advisor, penned a similarly jittery column for the New York Times arguing that the current crisis is “no time for protectionism.”

He laments the use of the term “fair trade” by Administration officials and offers the same tired assurances that exporting our industrial capacity to China benefits “the many millions of American consumers who prefer to pay less for the goods they buy.”

Mr. Makiw goes on to argue that any effort at fixing the trade imbalance will cause the Chinese to stop lending us money.

“As we sort through the wreckage of our own financial crisis,” he concludes, “a retreat into economic isolationism is one mistake we want to be sure not to repeat.”

What Mr. Makiw fails to explain is how American consumers can possibly buy products – cheap or otherwise -- if they don’t have decent-paying jobs.

Our retail-and-service economy is collapsing, not because prices are too high, but because unemployment lines are growing by half a million jobs each month.

For years, criticism of the free-trade orthodoxy was limited to fringe groups, with almost no treatment in the mainstream press.

But in his new book, "The Tyranny of Dead Ideas,” Fortune magazine columnist Matt Miller describes the knee-jerk acceptance of free trade as a destructive ideology that is crippling America.

“Though millions of people may be hurt by foreign competition,” he writes, “we're told the overall gains from free trade so outweigh any downside that it is folly to question its ultimate advantages.”

Unfortunately, President Obama has yet to confront this problem directly. No amount of stimulus can fix the country’s eroding industrial base.

Consider, for example, Mr. Obama’s vision of a new “green” economy or his plan to invest billions in education.

If his plan works, America will develop a new generation of whiz-kids clever enough to innovate revolutionary technologies that the world needs and will pay for.

But under our current trade model, the products we create will almost certainly be manufactured overseas.

Those shiny new wind turbines and hydrogen-powered cars – developed with billions of dollars of taxpayer investment -- will come with the same old "Made In China" label.

So what do we do?

Tomorrow, we close this thread with a look at how a new trade approach might help America rebuild its industrial base.

Paterson and the Goal Posts

(Warning: Sports metaphors!)

In any normal election campaign there's one constant: the calendar. Everybody knows when (if not how) it will all end.

But as the special election in the 20th congressional district gets underway -- and trust me, it's underway -- Governor David Paterson is controlling the clock.

He hasn't yet set an election day.

And despite his assurances that he'll set a date "soon" the law allows him to dither and delay for months.

Which is good news for Democratic candidate Scott Murphy, the Glens Falls venture capital fund manager who is trying to hold the seat for the Dems.

Murphy, diving into his first campaign, will need weeks to gear up a campaign capable of matching that of Jim Tedisco, the Assembly minority leader.

Tedisco is a veteran campaigner, with an infrastructure already in place capable of turning out a massive vote in the district.

Murphy plans to unveil his new campaign HQ in Glens Falls tomorrow; and his publicity is being managed by national Dem leaders.

Tedisco has been out on the trail for more than a week, trying to rally those straying GOP voters back to his banner.

The campaign has already turned nasty, with both sides firing ethics salvos.

But Gov. Paterson can keep those goal posts in his back pocket, until he's confident that "his" candidate is ready for the big game.

Stimulus watch + Wright resurfaces

Here's an interesting site that lists - and rates - many potential stimulus projects. Nothing up from North Country, though, just the big cities in New York. Pretty interesting to scan through what that $800 billion would buy.

On a different tip, former Senator Jim Wright - whose decision to step down mid-term opened the door for Democrats (in the person of Darrel Aubertine) to upset Republicans twice in one year - is said to be interviewing for the executive director job at the Development Authority of the North Country.

Questioning free trade, Part Two

Okay, so this is actually part 1.B of this thread, because Tourpro wrote in with a good counter-argument.

"I'm having a hard time making a comparison with France," he wrote. "For one, I can't think of any significant contribution their system has made to the world in a long time. Not one single Made in France product jumps out at me."

The question neatly sums up the conservative argument that the European model of capitalism is a bust, one that results in creative malaise, heavy-handed government, and high unemployment.

But the facts simply don't bear out this claim. The reality is that we use French products all the time.

European governments propped up Airbus (based in Tououse, France) with subsidies for years. Now the company outsells Boeing and has a 54% market share world-wide.

The allergy drug Allegra is a French product, as are BF Goodrich and Michelin tires, BIC razors, pens and lighters, Car & Driver Magazine (yup, French-owned), Culligan Water, and Dannon yogurt.

Many of the television programs and movies we watch are owned or produced by Vivendi Universal Entertainment, HQ'd in France.

Women's Day magazine - French-owned. Dozens of the name-brand beverages in your grocery or liquor store? Owned by Pernod.

I could go on and on.

Proportional to their populations, European countries are just as good at the capitalism game as we Americans -- maybe better.

It's true that Americans are more productive than Europeans, because more of us work (far more American women work full-time) and we work far longer hours with fewer vacations.

And while Europeans have higher unemployment, Americans hold far more dead-end, "working poor" positions. So that's a wash.

"When we adjust for both these factors and look at GDP in 2005 per person per hour worked," writes economist George Irvin, "there is virtually no difference between Germany, France and the US."

Indeed, many of the products and services that we use unblinkingly come from countries that incorporate far more planning into their economies.

Venezuela's state-owned Citgo has shops on street corners across the North Country.
Finland's Nokia and Sweden's Ericsson are major players in US telecom.

"French-owned Sodexho U.S.A. is the largest food service company in the United States," observes the Council on Foreign Relations, "and even serves meals on Marine Corps bases."

So while America may make different choices about how we run our economy, one fact is undeniable.

The choices these other countries have made about protecting home industries and regulating trade simply haven't caused the malaise that conservative economists predicted.

Coming tomorrow, Questioning Free Trade Part 3.

GOP already sets sights on Aubertine

We all know New York's GOP is licking its wounds and regrouping after losing control of the state Senate for the first time in four decades. It's even rebuilding its web presence.

It appears whatever tack the GOP takes statewide will include picking off Democrat Darrel Aubertine. This weekend I got three e-mails in two days from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee (one of which was reprinted on right-leaning Watertown blog Political IV an hour before I got the e-mail) taking Aubertine to task for everything from woes at Lee Memorial hospital in Fulton to using NYPA $$ to balance the state budget.

Republicans are smarting from failing to win the 48th Senate seat twice - a district where they hold a huge enrollment advantage. With Democrats alone in charge of closing a $12 billion deficit this year, the GOP will tag any cuts that hurt NNYers to Aubertine. They want this seat back badly.

By 2010, Aubertine will have to show his presence in the majority party yields benefit to the North Country. You already here murmurs, even among fellow Democrats, that Aubertine hasn't been exactly sharp and demonstrative so far as Senator. Being named chairman of the Ag committee is a start, but voters will be looking for a lot more.

Questioning free trade, Part One

The debate over the future of America’s economy has boiled down to a question of government spending vs. tax cuts.

Both priorities, one favored by most Democrats, the other by most Republicans, assume that our economy needs a quick pulse of energy and confidence to put it back on its legs.

The troubling reality, of course, is that Americans simply don’t make things anymore that people want to buy.

The Chinese do that. And the Japanese and the Mexicans. The Canadians have a thriving manufacturing base, as do the Germans and the French.

But in this country, both political parties bought into the notion long ago that manual labor is either politically suspect (the anti-union Republican bias) or out-dated, dirty and unpleasant (the Democratic spin).

For all their philosophical disagreements, liberals and conservatives found consensus on one thing: “dirty-hands” work – from manufacturing to mining to milling – should be done somewhere else by somebody else.

We Americans will be the white-collar workers to the world, the thinkers and innovators and bean-counters.

The last few months, we’ve learned that economies don’t work this way. Our economy certainly doesn’t.

For one thing – Thomas Friedman’s fantasies notwithstanding -- we aren’t really a white-collar society.

A third of Americans never graduate from high school, a dismal success rate that has actually slipped in recent years.

Which means that for a quarter-century, we’ve pursued a “post-industrial” trade model that ignores the needs of six-out-of-ten workers.

Now even the supposed winners in the New Economy have been treated to the spectacle of corporations shipping their cubicle-and-creativity jobs overseas.

IBM has begun offering downsized American tech-workers a chance to keep earning a paycheck in India, or other developing countries, so long as they’re willing to “work on local terms and conditions.”

Maybe one day soon our economy will shuffle along on "remittances" sent home by expatriate cubicle slaves living in New Delhi and Jakarta.

While we’ve pursued a unilateral love affair with “free trade,” other countries have carefully protected their home industries.

From Europe to Canada to East Asia, politicians and industrialists use trade barriers, tariffs, subsidies and other market controls as a matter of course.

Those same countries openly court American corporations with the offer of extremely low-paid workers and dangerously lax environmental rules.

Which means that even the best shirt-makers in America are forced to compete with workers in Vietnam earning a few dollars a day.

A domestic steel plant competes with factories in Indonesia that are free to decimate rivers.

This ideological pipedream has created a “race to the bottom” global economy, every bit as destructive as the Neo-con fantasies that until recently drove our foreign policy.

The ultimate loser has been America’s working- and middle-classes, which have been pushed to the edge.

Until this year, the magnitude of the debacle was concealed by the finance and housing bubbles, and by the rapid expansion of government-sector employment.

The silver lining of this economic crisis is that it revealed just how rotten our industrial base has become.

It's also caused us to ask tough new questions about the pros and cons of "free" trade.

Tomorrow: Part 2, Is Free Trade part of a "Tyranny of Dead Ideas"?

For Dems and Repubs, trial by philosophy

So the country is perched at the edge of a cliff. Most observers, regardless of political stripe, agree that the economy is very close to something apocalyptic.

The crisis doesn't look like any other recession we've ever experienced; it's beginning to look more and more like a depression.

The question now is, what can we do -- if anything -- to fix it.

President Obama has argued that we need something like bipartisanship to dig our way out of the trench. All shoulders to the wheel.

That argument hasn't produced results. Not, I'm convinced, because Republicans are foot-draggers or saboteurs.

The truth is that the two American political parties have radically different philosophies for how governments and economies work.

The Republican/conservative version goes like this: Individual work and entrepreneurship creates wealth.

Government, when it pushes beyond a very limited role, actually suppresses that kind of financial creativity -- through burdensome regulation, heavy taxes, and by convincing people that their needs will be met without work.

Most conservatives now say that the GOP abandoned some of these core principles over the last decade, by boosting entitlement programs and failing to shrink the size of government.

But they insist that the central arguments remain sound.

Democrats and progressives, on the other hand, believe that laissez-faire capitalism no longer works.

Without the steadying hand of government -- to provide stimulus when an economy is depressed or to apply the breaks when things are overheating -- things can spiral out of control.

In a global economy, regulation is essential to maintain a level, safe playing field.

This isn't socialism or communism (sorry, Rush), but capitalism with a rule-book.

So which approach is most likely to have the best results? There are three points worth considering.

1. As Mr. Obama argues fairly enough, Republicans had the last decade or so to make their version of capitalism work. (Some would say that their paradigm has been in place since Ronald Reagan was in office.) The results have been problematic at best.

2. The vast majority of economists disagree with the conservative philosophy. Here's the key passage from Sunday's Washington Post treatment.

While economists remain divided on the role of government generally, an overwhelming number from both parties are saying that a government stimulus package -- even a flawed one -- is urgently needed to help prevent a steeper slide in the economy.

Many economists say the precise size and shape of the package developing in Congress matter less than the timing, and that any delay is damaging.

3. Mr. Obama -- and his party -- just won a landslide election, which argues that he should have a chance to play out his vision for the government.

Obviously, it's possible that the Democrats are wrong. The stimulus might not work. Or, it might work and America might inch more closely to a planned economy where there is less innovation and less entrepreneurship.

But for the first time in our lifetimes, this philosophical clash is no longer academic, no longer a matter for think-tank debates.

In rooting for the stimulus to work, we're not rooting for progressives - we're rooting for the nation.

Upper Saranac seasonal blasts Bush military "propaganda"

Tom Curley, who spends a lot of the year living on Upper Saranac Lake, also heads the Associated Press.

On Friday, he blasted the Bush administration for turning "the U.S. military into a global propaganda machine while imposing tough restrictions on journalists seeking to give the public truthful reports about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."

That according to the AP's own treatment of Curley's appearanace at an event in Kansas.

Curley told journalists that they are "the only force out there to keep the government in check and to hold it accountable."

But Curley also described astonishing statements, which he says were made by military leaders against the AP:

"Top commanders have told me that if I stood and the AP stood by its journalistic principles, the AP and I would be ruined."

Curley said in a brief interview that he didn't take the commanders' words as a threat but as "an expression of anger."

Late in 2007, Curley wrote an editorial about the detention of AP photographer Bilal Hussein, held by the military for more than two years.

Eleven of AP's journalists have been detained in Iraq for more than 24 hours since 2003. Last year, according to cases AP is tracking, news organizations had eight employees detained for more than 48 hours.

My favorite headline of the week...

From the Washington Post: "U.S. Downturn Picks Up Steam"

Journalists are running out of perjoratives for just how bad this economy looks -- so now we're using superlatives?

"Economy out-performs Great Depression (in terms of job losses)!"

The truth is, there IS a kind of train-wreck fascination about all of this. It's like watching a disaster in slow motion.

Even more fascinating, however, will be the slog back to prosperity. I'm looking forward to THIS headline: "U.S. Downturn Runs Out of Gumption."

Is compromise too much of a good thing?

President Obama is losing the messaging war over the economic stimulus package. Obama knows it, too. He ramped up his rhetoric last night at the House Dems' retreat. And he's creating another economic advisory council to help strengthen his message.

Here's a president with a tremendous amount of political capital spending it very quickly in the name of bipartisanship. In the process, he's losing the support of the moderates in his own party.

I'm not sure I understand. Obama will be judged on his ability to end the recession and return the economy to health in four years. Isn't he relying a bit too much on Republicans, some of whom may not want him to succeed?

If I were the Democrats, I'd craft the economic stimulus that I think will actually solve the problem, then bring it to a vote. I rather win or lose with my best hand than a watered-down one (sorry for the mixed metaphor).

It'll pass the House. If Senate Republicans want to go to the mat and filibuster in the name of principle, holding back hundreds of billions of dollars that could put lots of people back to work, let them make that case and let the American people decide.

It's probably too late for this. Blue Dog Dems in the Senate have already balked at the package, complicating the calculus. But it seems Obama may be sacrificing policy for bipartisanship.

What do you think?

A test for Barack's conservative allies

In David Sommerstein's report on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's shifting political views, her aide describes Ms. Gillibrand as "a fiscal conservative."

The new junior Senator from New York is only one of a new generation of Democratic lawmakers who've risen from centrist or center-right districts.

Think of them as red state Democrats, from Alaska, Nebraska, Virginia, and Wyoming.

As President Obama fights to save his stimulus package, it's these politicians he has to rally, not the Republicans across the aisle.

Being a big-tent party is a blessing -- you get the perks of leadership.

But it's also a curse, when you have to please leaders as diverse as Barbara Boxer and Ben Nelson.

This is also one of the reasons that liberals were infuriated with the pick of Sen. Gillibrand. The last thing they wanted was one more centrist shifting Congress's center of gravity.

If the stimulus package tanks, Mr. Obama will almost certainly have his own Party's moderates to thank, for better or worse.

Upper Saranac jet-setters zinged by NY Post

Upper Saranac seasonal resident Sandy Weill -- who has sometimes commuted by jet to the Adirondacks -- drew the ire of the NY Post for his jet-setting ways.

Just weeks after Citigroup averted total collapse with a $45 billion shot in the arm of taxpayer cash, the bank jetted its former CEO and his family on one of its corporate jets to a posh Mexican resort for New Year's, The Post has learned.

According to the newspaper, Weill and his wife Joan traveled to Mexico on the bank's Bombardier Global Express the same week that his former bank "agreed to curtail runaway corporate expenses."

The Post dubbed the trip "Citi's sky-high arrogance."

On Monday, Weill's office issued a statement that "in light of the unprecedented circumstances that Citi finds itself in' he decided to stop using Citi aircraft immediately."

The dust-up comes as President Barack Obama is trying to squeeze corporate execs tied to companies that are taking massive taxpayer bailouts.

President Obama has described Wall Street's lavish ways as "bad taste."

But according to the Post, the Citi corporate jet is pretty darn tasteful. Here's the description, ascribed to a former crewmember:

Seating up to 18 passengers, the interior features a full bar and fine-wine selection, along with "$13,000 carpets, pillows that were made from Hermes scarves, Baccarat Crystal glassware and Cristofle sterling silver flatware."

Ah, the Gilded Age.

Infallible?

Fox News is reporting that Pope Benedict XVI is back-pedaling on his plan to rehabilitate Bishop Richard Williamson.

Williamson is the guy who denies the existence of Nazi gas chambers and who argues that historians wildly exaggerate the number of Jewish deaths during the Holocaust.

Here's Fox's take, datelined Vatican City:

The Vatican has demanded that a bishop who denied the Holocaust must recant his position before being fully readmitted into the Roman Catholic Church.

At the same time, the conservative Catholic order, the Legionaries of Christ, are wrestling with revelations that their revered founder, the Rev. Marcial Maciel Degollado, led a double life.

Degollado is accused of having sexual relations, possibly with men as well as women, and fathering a child.

This from the New York Times:

Father Fichter, once the chief financial officer for the order, said he informed the Vatican three years ago that every time Father Maciel left Rome, “I always had to give him $10,000 in cash — $5,000 in American dollars and $5,000 in the currency of wherever he was going.”

Father Fichter added: “As Legionaries, we were taught a very strict poverty; if I went out of town and bought a Bic pen and a chocolate bar, I would have to turn in the receipts. And yet for Father Maciel there was never any accounting. It was always cash, never any paper trail. And because he was this incredible hero to us, we never even questioned it for a second.”

Mr. Fair said he had no comment about whether Father Maciel had misappropriated money, fathered a child or sexually abused young men.

These revelations come as the Church continues to pay out millions of dollars for sexual abuse victims -- and as churches and schools across the North Country continue to close due to a shortage of priests and religious.

So here's the question: Where is this all heading? What's happening to the Roman Catholic church, one of the most important cultural institutions in our region?

The Wurzelbacher Party?

C'mon, Republicans. Really? Having Samuel "Joe the plumber" Wurzelbacher address your gathering?

And having him in to talk about the President's stimulus package?

According to Politico, a staff-member of Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) sent an email to members of Congress, gushing, "In case you weren’t planning to attend...you might want to reconsider because Joe the Plumber will be joining us!”

The GOP is mostly mum about what Wurzelbacher said. But Politico reports that Wurzelbacher advised Republican congressional leaders to "go in there and kick some ass."

Ah, statesmanship.

"He’s an interesting person for staffers to hear from," one conservative told Politico, "and it certainly helps us get an understanding about how the stimulus debate is playing out in the country with regular folks.”

Sigh.

Straight talk from Barack

Mr. Obama followed half of my advice yesterday (you thought he didn't read NCPR's news blog?) and jettisoned the bubble speak.

In interviews, the President acknowledged screwing up some of his cabinet appointments. This from the Washington Post:

"Did I screw up in this situation? Absolutely. I'm willing to take my lumps," Obama told NBC's Brian Williams, one of five interviews he gave yesterday afternoon. Obama told the network anchors that there are "not two sets of rules" for people, and said that average taxpayers deserve to have public officials who pay their taxes on time.

More advice for Mr. Obama

Dear Mr. Obama,

Two of your top cabinet appointees are out because they didn't pay their taxes.

A third -- one of the men involved in reviving the economy -- also fudged his IRS donation. But he's still in.

Ick.

According to the New York Times, your press aid is telling the White House press corps that you remain "confident in the administration's process for vetting candidates."

Then your PR people sent you off to a school classroom for a shiny photo op.

Right. That's what we call bubble-speak followed by a head-fake.

All politicians do it. It's the kind of thing people say and do when everybody knows there's been a monumental screw-up.

Say something bland and meaningless, then change the subject.

But in theory you're not a normal politician. And you've promised not to snow us like that. Not now when Rome is burning.

So here's what you do. Come down to the press room tomorrow. Tell people that your team screwed up the vetting process, it stinks, and your people will do better finding the right team or they'll lose their jobs.

Explain how angry you are at Tom Daschle, at Mr. Geithner, and at Ms. Killefer. They displayed some real stupidity here and all three have let the country down.

And then -- and here's the Leadership Moment -- announce that all three have been asked to resubmit their resumes.

If they're the ones you need to run your Administration, cop to the fact that they screwed up (as Dick Cheney would say) big time. And then get them confirmed and on the job.

Otherwise, it's just more Washington Melodrama, more Business as Usual.

Pay your taxes, Part Two

Another Obama appointee - Nancy Killefer - has been hit by tax problems.

She's been forced to withdraw her appointment as chief performance officer after it was revealed that she hadn't paid employment taxes for her domestic help.

I think this embarrassing situation opens a rare window into the world of high-earning executives, who skirt the lines when it comes to paying their fair share of taxes.

Clearly more enforcement is needed. Democrat, Republican -- it doesn't matter.

But for Democrats, who generally favor higher taxes, it's particularly uncomfortable.

If you believe that government can be a force for good, then it's your responsibility to help pay for it.

We'll see if the issue short-circuits Tom Daschle's nomination next.

When they all come back home

A few years ago, Fort Drum expanded, big time. It added an additional brigade, bringing more than 5,000 people to the greater Fort Drum area. Places like Carthage and Gouverneur also became homes for soldiers, as troops sought affordable housing far beyond the Drum gates.

At the time, two of the 10th Mountain Division's brigades were deployed, to Iraq and Afghanistan. The big concern was how would the tri-county area (Jefferson-St. Lawrence-Lewis) absorb the massive growth, in terms of housing, education, law enforcement, etc., when all the soldiers, and their families - came home at the same time.

Well, it never really happened. Drum troops are in a constant state of deploy for a year, come home for a year. At least, for now. The Watertown Daily Times has a story today on Defense Sec. Gates' plans to increase "dwell time" - the stay-at-Drum period in between deployments to 15 months, and to 24 months by this time next year.

That decision could foretell the population growth, and its consequences, we've been talking about since 2005. Carl McLaughlin of the Fort Drum Regional Liaison Organization told the paper they're already on it...

More families that stay in the area through deployments also could translate into a shortage of services, ranging from space in schools and hospitals to the number of housing units, Mr. McLaughlin said. He has said in the past that it could never be like between 2003 and 2005 when the 3rd Brigade Combat Team came to Fort Drum and brought 3,500 soldiers and almost 1,800 family members to the area in a short period.

He said he believes that threat is low because the area is preparing for the day when consistent deployments will end and Fort Drum will have all 17,500 soldiers and 17,000 family members here at once. Samaritan Medical Center in Watertown is expanding, as are schools, in anticipation of providing more services to soldiers and their families.

"We are ahead of the curve. There are lots of housing units coming on line and the Samaritan hospital project is coming along at the right time and all the school projects are timed well," Mr. McLaughlin said.

It's good to see the regional community planning for the future. But there are some big unknowns - the future of the war in Afghanistan, not to mention what will happen in Pakistan and Iran under the Obama Administration.

The stimulus, the New Deal and the bottom line

Conservatives in Washington have been questioning the value of President Obama's stimulus package.

Part of their discomfort is the amount of pork packed into the bill. Fair enough. But there's also a deeper question about the value of massive government interventions.

The Republican meme is that the New Deal (Mr. Obama's model) wasn't effective and may have even been counterproductive. Here's conservative columnist George Will:

"Before we go into a new New Deal," he pronounced, "can we just acknowledge that the first New Deal didn’t work?

The Heritage Foundation has also fostered this idea, concluding, "First, the reality is that FDR’s New Deal did not help the U.S. recover from the Great Depression but simply made things worse."

It's worth pointing out that the vast majority of economists disagree. Even many centrist Republicans believe that government spending can and should be used to stimulate economic activity.

But I think conservatives also overlook another reality.

If the New Deal wasn't the silver bullet that ended the Great Depression, it was certainly a safety net that kept hundreds of thousands of Americans from abject, Third World poverty.

By the mid-1930s, our society was on the verge of collapse. A quarter of the nation's workers were unemployed, nearly four times the current level.

Whole states were depopulated by drought and economic devastation. Unrest and violence were increasingly common, as "Hoovervilles" sprang up around the country.

By putting people to work and establishing a new level of social security, the government created a kind of backstop. "Things are bad," was the message, "but they won't get any worse."

If the current economic crisis continues to worsen, conservatives may be forced to confront this question again.

Is limited government still the correct approach when people are starving?

And if government stimulus isn't a cure-all, might it not be a necessary tool for maintaining some level of economic stability, until the private sector finds its legs again?

Yes, there are risks to spending all that borrowed money. And yes, at some level higher taxes do stifle economic activity.

But without a flood of "artificial" spending, we might see many irreplaceable institutions -- from our oldest banks to our best hospitals to our automobile industry -- simply disappear.

Conservatives insist that we must trust the marketplace to sort all this out. But as millions of jobs continue to circle the drain, that argument might not play outside the think-tanks and the talk-radio circuit.