Monday, November 2, 2009

NCPR's poll coverage

NCPR has probed and dissected as many polls as we could find these past weeks. Now we're going to stop reporting on them until after tomorrow's election.

Why? First, because the experts we talk to agree that the situation out there is just too crazy for accurate surveys.

This is reflected by the fact that new polls coming out today are all over the map.

Part of this reflects the continued fall-out from Republican Dede Scozzafava's withdrawal and her unexpected endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens.

Partly, it reflects the dramatic, non-traditional campaign of Doug Hoffman.

And partly it reflects the fact that no one's really sure who will turn up tomorrow. "Likely Voter Models" are notoriously sketchy...especially in special elections.

Suffice it to say that if you ever dreamed of voting in a dramatic, fascinating, nationally resonant contest, where your ballot could make a big difference, this is that opportunity.

A couple of thousands of votes could very easily make the difference either way. It's a cliche -- but also a fact -- to say that election day is the only poll that matters.

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3 Comments:

At November 2, 2009 10:36 AM , Blogger Brian said...

I think NCPR (as distinct from NPR or Karen Dewitt) is the rare outlet that actually does a good job on handling polls. Most other outlets (especially state related) spend way too much time on polls and "analysis" of them, so much that it suffocates real reporting. Too many outlets use polls as a crutch when they don't feel like doing the leg work for something more substantive. NCPR actually gets the balance right, mentioning them but not ad nauseum.

 
At November 2, 2009 11:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

No more polls.
Thank you.
Now, if you could stop the robocalls...

 
At November 2, 2009 7:21 PM , Anonymous Bret4207 said...

I've taken to answering, "White House switchboard, how may I direct your call?"

 

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