The national view for 2010
It strikes me that Democrats and Republicans both have big problems to solve before next year's mid-terms, in order to prevail.
1. Republicans have to tame, temper and harness their conservative base. Right now 2010 is shaping up as a referendum on President Obama and the economy. That's good for the GOP. But if, as in NY-23, voters are forced instead to focus on intra-party ideological feuds (and Glenn Beck's lunacy) that's bad for the GOP. Americans like two-party government. But they're still leery of the wacky, dysfunctional Bush-era GOP.
2. Democrats have to start showing significant progress on unemployment. They need to have a big prize or two that makes their liberal base happy (healthcare? climate change?). And to bring independent voters back, the White House needs to begin seriously curtailing the deficit. Some economists say it's too soon to start hacking down the national debt, but independent voters aren't economists.
I see little evidence that Republicans will retake majorities in either house of Congress next year. But whichever party addresses these problems best will outperform expectations.
posted by Brian Mann @ 11/06/2009 11:05:00 AM
11 Comments
11 Comments:
Yup, those darn Republicans need to stifle any difference of opinion and the Democrats need to spin things to their advantage. That's the American way...
Wow Brian, I think there could have been a little more thought put into that post. Don't you think the issues are little more complex than that?
Bret - Go back and read again. Read, then respond.
Brian
Brian,
Assuming you've had a second to catch your breath, thanks for all your work on the In Box.
Enjoyed it, even when I quibbled with it. But next election, a little less meta (polls, who won the week, what DC Insiders think) and a little more meat (context, reporting on stuff like Owens' law firm and Stafford ties, and above all, candidate positions on real issues). I think one of the game-changers in the campaign was Hoffman's inability to answer "parochial" questions. Think coverage should have asked more parochial questions, especially early on.
But all in all, great work. It is much appreciated.
I did read it Brian, 4 times before I made my initial post. Why do the Republs have to reign in a group that isn't part of their party anymore. Maybe the Republicans should respond to the wishes of the base and start there. Yeah, maybe we'll lose but I'd rather lose clean than lose playing Democrat-lite.
The Dems have had the playing field all year. They can't seem to get it in gear. They spin it like they have, but so far the boys are still "over there", unemployment keeps rising a dn the deficit/national debt is skyrocketing. Yet, the White House and Congressional Leadership keep saying all's well. Isn't that "spin"? It was when the Repubs were doing it.
This is the kind of dialog we should be having.
Mike
Okay, Bret - let me tell you why I asked you to read more carefully.
1. If conservatives abandon the GOP, the GOP is done. On the other hand, conservatives can't possibly gain majorities in congress without moderates. So yes, Republican leaders need to figure out how to bridge this divide.
2. I never suggested that Democrats need to "spin things to their advantage." On the contrary, I said they need to DO things. Not spin -- tangible accomplishments. Health care, bring unemployment down, begin cutting the deficit.
So far, both parties are failing to solve these problems. The one that figures out it wins.
--Brian
With all due respect Brian, I disagree with your thoughts on the Repubs. It's not time for the Repubs to rein in their former base, it's time for the Repubs to make a decision to either return to their roots or to follow their current path and become what the Demo's were when Truman was in office. If we separate entirely I'm fine with that. What is the use of sticking to a party that works against your interests?
As for the Dems it would be nice to see them accomplish something truly good. But I haven't seen that happen in a long time. However what they do accomplish is spun into goodness and light no matter how wrong it is. Just as the Repubs do so often.
Brian, how is the deficit going to be cut with ever expanding welfare benefits (health care included) and out of control spending? Democrats spend until there's nothing left. You think they'll change their ways? Don't hold your breath.
Actually, there are plenty of precedents for Democrats proposing deficit reduction plans that are effective.
The first George Bush and Bill Clinton share the bragging rights for America's brief foray into budget surpluses in the 1990s.
Governor David Paterson is currently proposing rather dramatic budget cuts.
--Brian, NCPR
Anon 10:44 asked: How is the deficit going to be cut with ever expanding welfare benefits (health care included) and out of control spending?
Both parties are deficit spenders. Deficits are as much the result of undertaxation as overspending. They are two sides of the same coin. If Democrats want new programs, they have to raise the revenue with new taxes. If Republicans want lower taxes, they have to cut popular programs, including spending popular with their own supporters. There is a courage deficit in both parties regarding this reality.
Very well said Dale.
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