Is the North Country conservative?
I've been picking over the close-to-final ballot numbers compiled by Jude Seymour for the Watertown Daily Times coverage of the NY-23 special election.
Here's a startling discovery. In the region known traditionally as the North Country, Conservative Doug Hoffman got creamed.
Here's the breakdown.
Doug Hoffman won four North Country counties (Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson and Lewis) by a total of 1,733 votes. In no case did he win a county in this region by more than 600 votes.
Bill Owens also won four North Country counties (Clinton, Essex, Franklin and St. Lawrence) by a total of 8,318 votes. He won two counties -- Clinton and St. Lawrence -- by more than 3,000 votes.
The bottom line? Even if all of Dede Scozzafava's North Country votes are placed in Hoffman's column, Owens still wins this region.
The Conservative came darn close to prevailing because he ran up very strong vote totals in central New York, where none of the three candidates were well known.
These numbers certainly re-enforce the GOP's initial instinct, that the best fit for a win here was a moderate like Republican Dede Scozzafava.
If the North Country is staunchly conservative (in the sense that Doug Hoffman suggested) how come a Conservative was beaten straight up in this region by a Democrat?
Your thoughts welcome.
posted by Brian Mann @ 11/20/2009 06:40:00 AM
21 Comments
21 Comments:
Very good question. I'm sure Doug was not "creamed" because he actually won. It was those plotting Democrats, ACORN and Dede Scozzafaza's ties to the unions (through her hubby, Ron) that ensured the votes would not be counted.
Further, I thoroughly understand Doug making his concession speech just around midnight on election day. All good conservatives are in bed by 9:00 p.m., in keeping with precedent set by R. Reagan and Dubya, and it was waaaay past Doug's bedtime. He was getting cranky and impatient, and conceded just so he could get some nap time.
Seriously thoughm, while viewing the coverage leading up to this past election, I wondered if the GOP and FOX News "mis"underestimated the strength of Independent voters in the North Country. When I settled in St. Lawrence County, after retiring from the Navy in '97, the GOP was something like 2/3rds of the electorate. I may have my facts wrong here, but I know I've read that stat that the, electorate is now 1/3 GOP, 1/3 Dem and 1/3 Independent.
It appears that it was the GOP who suffered the greatest number of defections to the Independents.
And these folks left the GOP for a reason.
OT, but do Hoffman's charges have any relation to reality? Is there really a shadowy ACORN presence in the North Country? Or is he just taking a page from Palin's book and, you know, lying?
Is the NC conservative. Yes and no. Personally people are generally conservative, but that doesn't always translate into their politics. There are conservative voters who spoil their children and spend every time they make and then there are liberal voters, who are firm parents and personally frugal. Apparently, conservatives don't have a corner on personal and financial responsibility. We certainly have our share of conservative voters, and some are downright reactionary. People often vote the person. Bill Owens was a calm, steady presence. His military background would have been seen as plus in a region where so many have served and sacrificed over the years. There are also many union households in the North Country, and folks understand the importance of unions even if their support lacks an ideological fervor. There is also a wide libertarian streak. We are very good at minding our own business and letting others be. What we don't like, we tolerate. Hoffman did well in the Syracuse due to his extensive ads. I heard some while passing through. Hoffman's support was largely a media creation. Finally, as the Republican Party takes on more and more of a Southern sensibility, it speaks less and less to the North Country's Yankee descendants.
I think the original column and the comments so far all beg the question, what does "conservative" mean? We have fiscal conservatives who support gay marriage and abortion rights. We have social conservatives who support aggressive action to combat climate change. There are family-values conservatives who see laissez-faire capitalism and the consumer culture as anti-family. Which are the true conservatives?
The whole notion that the country, or northern NY, can be divided into two camps, conservative and liberal, is a trap and leads to superficial distinctions.
Spot-on post, Brian Mann.
And what's been completely overlooked in coverage is how basically conservative--in a 20-years-ago sense--Owens' background is. He was in the service, gave to Republicans and ran the law firm of GOP saint Ronald Stafford. He was more conservative on many issues than Scozzafava.
He just wasn't reactionary. He's in tune with the district, both how it was 20 years ago and how it's evolving now.
Is the North Country conservative? Yes.
Reactionary and televangelical?
No.
Southern?
Definitely not.
To conserve what is left of the largest park of deciduous forest in the lower 48, you just may be a liberal-conservative. "Treehugger"
To conserve a right to privacy for people exercising their lawful choice (most esp. in cases of rape or domestic violence, you just might be a liberal- conservative. "Baby murderer"
To conserve our local water supply and keep it pure and safe as possible - no toilets dumping in the 'crick', no industries and garages turning our fish into frankenfish, you just might be a liberal-conservative. "Damned hippie"
To conserve our most precious resource, the American people, to ensure that they are gainfully employed at a living wage; that they are not being sacrificed in ill planned and illegal wars; that they have access to the same healthcare as do their Representatives, you may be a liberal-conservative. "Bleeding heart liberal"
Your theory may hold true except Dede is not a moderate. She is left of center. A "Newt" moderate may have done better.
Never discount the " likeability" factor in a candidate. Sometimes it just comes down to that. Owens had it more than Hoffman. My opinion. Maybe it is no more complex then that.
Republicans have lost the popular vote in four of the last five Presidential Elections. I believe Hillary Clinton won the Senate vote in the North Country. Not only is the Country not conservative, recent history tells us the North Country is not conservative. If Republicans come up with a centrist candidate they can win, if the opposition is a conservative, a Democrat will win. We are centrists with the arrow pointing left.
Brian, leave the political analysis to the professors and politicians, please!
You miss several big factors in looking at where Owens won and why. Hoffman lost big in St. Lawrence because it's Dede's home and people still voted for her or the candidate she endorsed. Owens won Clinton because they know him and he lives there. Hoffman was a weak candidate at best. Never should have been on the ballot but the Conseravative Party pimps will put up any prostitute who will walk their way.
So Brian, I know you NPR Liberals hope the North Country isn't little "c", philosophically conservative, but in fact it is -regardless of this election.
Sorry. Get over it. And stick to reading the news on the radio, not analyzing politics.
woodchuck -
i don't follow your argument.
if clinton county is conservative and they know bill owens, why didn't people there vote against him?
why did owens win two other north country counties -- franklin and essex -- where scozzafava is largely unknown?
-brian, ncpr
woodchucksage - brian didn't give up his freedom of speech, nor the right to exercise his own brain cells, when he went to work for NCPR.
You tell Brian to "leave the political analysis to the professors and politicians, please!"
But, as you can see from Brian's reply to you, where he helps you see things from a different angle, he can do analysis and radio at the same time.
Amazing talent at NCPR. Those folks must be conservatives (little c) to be that talented.
Don't you agree woodchuchsage?
woodchucksage, with 61% of the vote clinton county was obama's third best county in upstate new york (behind very liberal tompkins and albany counties). He also got 60% in Franklin, 57% st. Lawrence and 55% in Essex county.
Define "conservative"? Is it conservative to be pro-gun/property rights/ clean air and water? Is it conservative to be right leaning on abortion and religion? It is conservative to believe in national defense/lower taxes/more jobs/reasonable sized gov't and personal freedoms? Is it conservative to want to see responsibility in all sectors of Gov't?
If it is then there are a LOT of conservatives in the North Country. Conservative doesn't mean marching to Limbaughs orders and wearing a hood.
Conservative doesn't mean marching to Limbaughs orders and wearing a hood.
I'm unsure about why wearing a hood would make you conservative?
However, if you are Michael Steele, Chairman of the RNC, you will retract any statement criticising Rush Limbaugh and you WILL march to his orders.
Same thing goes for Newt Gingrich who was forced to retract his criticism of Rush.
And, right here in our own "backyard" we saw what happened to Dede Scozzafava when she wouldn't march to Rush Limbuagh's cadence.
As a previous poster stated, please tell us when you have found the "right" and real conservative to represent you.
You guys are even dismissing Dubya as not being a true conservative, afterall, he did lable himself a "compassionate" conservative.
Limbuagh is, by all reports, the titular head of the Con/Rep party.
Do as he says, or suffer political and personal destruction.
Have I got that about right?
PS. When has Obama come after your religion and your guns?
He's only been in office for 10 months Frank. Give him time. He;s already made the insults about guys like me being stupid, clinging to our guns and religion. Give him time, he said there'd be no public option in healthcare too.
I wonder if my conservatism is maybe a little different than what you think of. Yeah, I supported the wars, still do. But I didn't support the obscene amounts of money spent on them and everything else that crossed Bushs desk. I never bought much of the crap Limbaugh spews, some is accurate, some isn't. Darn sure I never found a politician without dirty fingers. So I'm stuck waiting for someone real to come along. Maybe they don't exist.
Bret4207 November 24, 2009 11:27 am
said -
"So I'm stuck waiting for someone real to come along. Maybe they don't exist.."
So, Bret4207, you have quite a quandary you're dealing with.
Does not the fair maiden who once ruled the Kingdom of Alaska, and who surveyed all the lands her eyes could see (including Roosia)
give you any hope.
She always keeps her nails polished and her fingers clean of any wild animal entrails.
And she just published a really great yarn too.
I think it's title is "Drill, Baby Drill!
I may be wrong. I do get my news from Jon Stewart and Olbermann.
I don't know Frank. She represents what basic idea I'm seeking- someone real, not a Washington insider, not a carer politician, not American Royalty (Kennedy,Bush). But is she real and is she capable? Got me. She's just as, if not more, qualified as the current resident of the White House whose sum total work experience was.......okay, he had no work experience, but he's a not threatening black so we ignore that along with all his Marxist/terrorist advisors, etc.
I want a Calvin Coolidge. Someone that's there to serve, not create a legacy. I want someone who boites the head off anyone who even men tions his "legacy". I want someone thats there not because he wants the office, but because he feels duty bound.
Yeah, pretty idealistic for a cynic like me. Don't worry, I have no real expectation that I'll ever find anyone like that these days.
Bret4207 wrote:
"She's(Palin) just as, if not more, qualified as the current resident of the White House whose sum total work experience was.......okay, he had no work experience, but he's a not threatening black so we ignore that along with all his Marxist/terrorist advisors, etc."
Bret4207, you are always so incorrigible, and as usual wrong. Plus your comment comes tinted with just a hint of subtle racism. Yes?
It would be one thing if you were writing "bovine scatology" strictly tongue-in-cheek, but you aren't. You really do believe these things. Incredible.
Ya, Obama, not a legacy, managed to get himself into Harvard Law School (probably just affirmative action right Bret4207), and then he became the President of the prestigious, Harvard Law Review (probably Bret4207, because Obama was not one of those "threatening blacks")
Yup, Obama went to college and excelled in his studies, just like Sarah Palin did at Anchorage Community College and Taxidermy School (see, that's being tongue-in-cheek).
Then, when this very bright and talented man could have named his price for any job he wanted to take on Wall Street or K Street, Obama choose to go to Chicago and work as a community organizer amongst the poor (or in your vernacular, a terrorist agitator).
Bret4207, I apologize for stating this, but if you really believe in half the stuff that comes out of your brain, I would call you an insult to humanity and a rather dimly lit bulb at that.
I have faith that you are smarter than what you let on.
Just haven't seen much evidence with which to back-up my faith. :-)
Apparently you don;t read the words of your own liberal friends, much less between the lines. Much of that post was the condensed version of what various Democrat leaders said about your boy Barry. Wasn;t it Joe "loose Lips" Biden who called him a "clean cut black man"? Various people of the Chris Matthews type waxed eloquently about how "white guilt" would help his election. It's all out there waiting to be read.
I've no doubt he's very smart. I also have no doubt that he's had no real world work experience. Please find and present all the articles he wrote in the Harvard Law Review. If you can find them you'd best call the media because no one else ahs been able to find them. Should we go into the difference between his claim of being a "Law Professor" and the schools listing of him and an associate of some type, clearly not a Professor?
Look, the guys a smart, well spoken, well educated person. He's also the single least experienced person to ever sit in the seat of the President. IIRC he was absent for most of his Senatorial term since he started campaigning ASAP after that nifty speech in 2005 or 6.
Oh well, if you're happy with him, fine. I'm not. That's what it's all about right? But don't worry about any racism on my part. I don't think much opf his white half, his VP, the Speaker or lots of other white liberals either.
Have I ever defended any of the stupid or mildly-racist(?) comments that have come from the dem/lib side of the aisle?
Regardless of the rank or station of the idiot who made them, I condemn idiocy and ignorance whether it originates from the left, right, middle or indifferent.
Bret 4207, just wrote the following about Barak Hussein Obama:
"Look, the guys a smart, well spoken, well educated person."
Very nice complements Bret4207. Not too long ago, those attributes would have served well to make Barak eligible to be a "House Negro."
And now, to your mortal chagrin, and to the chagrin of several million others (man have they cleaned out the gun shops of ammo!), that "smart, well-spoken, well-educated person" has actually become the Negro in your White House!
I'm surprised you didn't also include in your list of his many accomplishments, that Obama is well-dressed, a good dancer, and a not too shabby hoops player.
Quick, Jenkins, go fetch the NC Conservative, Bret4207, some cold sasparilla and a wet hankie for his brow. I do believe he's having the vapors.
Anyway, if Bret4207 agrees that the comments he has presented are prima facie evidence of racism on the part of dem/libs, why would Bret4207 stoop so low as to perpetrate the same sins and excesses of the left?
Rise above the hatred.
In the words of that great motorist who was kicked, pummeled and stomped by the LAPD
"Can't we all just get along."
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