Hoffman's national crusade falls short in a local House race
I think my first sense that something was wrong in the Hoffman Wave came around 8pm. I arrived at the Hotel Saranac to find a distinctly underwhelming crowd.
There were plenty of reporters. Fox News had set up an entire studio, so that Sean Hannity could capture the moment of Doug Hoffman's victory.
But where were the crowds of grassroots supporters? Where were the hundreds (the tens?) of passionate activists?
For days, polls had showed Hoffman surging. Siena's independent survey put him up five points. Other polls showed the Conservative up by double-digit margins.
I was convinced that the "passion index" favored Hoffman. And Republicans were behind him now, too, right?
But then I noticed something else: No Republican leaders. Jim Ellis was there from Tupper Lake -- but no sign of state Senator Betty Little. No phalanx of GOP-allies.
I shrugged it off. The people who were on hand were passionate, funny, confident. These were mostly local folks from the Adirondacks.
Conservative, yes. But Glenn Beck crazy? No.
These were normal, down-to-earth people supporting a candidate and a cause they believe in.
But as the night began, it quickly became clear that Hoffman was going to fall short. It wasn't a drubbing, or a humiliation.
Doug Hoffman rode a wave that toppled one candidate and came within 3% of toppling another.
But here's the hard truth: In politics, 3% is a lot of territory. And by mounting this insurgency, Hoffman helped to elect a Democrat in NY-23 for the first time in modern history.
What went wrong? Maybe nothing.
Maybe the traditionalist message (pro-life, opposing gay marriage) and the anti-government rhetoric simply don't appeal to enough people.
Or maybe the same factors that helped build the wave -- the sense of culture-war urgency, that whiff of triumphalism, the hectoring of the Becks and Limbaughs -- also brought it up short.
It also appears that while conservatives loathe Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a sizable number of North Country voters don't.
In fact, they kind of like and respect her. Not so shocking when you consider that she's been an elected official and GOP leader for a decade.
After last night's defeat, is there room for Doug Hoffman's movement in the North Country?
I for one hope so. We need everyone in the room, all hands on the wheel, to help with the many crises we face in New York.
Raising questions about massive government spending is a good thing. (I for one would prefer to hold this local discussion without the involvement of national AM talk radio hosts.)
Before 2010, I hope Doug Hoffman takes the time to make more connections, take a truer pulse of his neighbors, and learn the bread-and-butter issues that matter here to so many people.
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 11/04/2009 05:40:00 AM
20 Comments
20 Comments:
Hoffman's actions look reckless in retrospect. While it is true that his campaign hit a nerve, it took outside money and interests to jump start it. Whether local support would have organized and funded it to any great extent is a fair question. I have my doubts. Bret and others who post here are deeply frustrated, and yet I am not sure what you do politically when people are not ready to hear the message about deficits or dwindling energy supplies. I am suspicious of blaming the government as if it was somehow separate from we the people. As Pogo said We have met the enemy and it is us. It will be interesting to see just what people will be willing to give up. In the meantime, there is always personal action; live below your means, save, stay out of debt, volunteer in the community and donate generously. Doug W.
I would venture a guess that a lot of those people you saw wouldn't have identified themselves as Republicans Brian. Did you ask? This is just the first step. Conservatism isn't easy to sell to people used to having their hand out every day, getting it massaged with other peoples money. It won't click until the system collapses or they finally notice they have no free speech/no free exchange on the internet (Net Neutrality), no secret ballot at Union meetings (Card Check), no gun rights (and we all know how well gun laws deter crime), no cash on hand because their electric bill triples (Cap and Trade), no jobs because the economy is in a shambles due to taxes from a Gov't run health care system that lets Granny die and murders viable babys as they exit the birth canal. Nothing like a syringe full of poison jabbed in your skull to mess up your day, but at least Mom will have her "lifestyle" and her "rights". Better get your passport updated so you can go to Canada and buy your health care out of pocket 'cuz you ain't gonna have it here.
All you libs keep on doing what you're doing. We'll need someone to point at when the whole thing crashes. Keep on with the useless rhetoric of "right wing hate mongers". You're the ones driving this country to ruin, not those of use asking for some common sense.
is there room for Doug Hoffman's movement in the North Country? I hope so. We need everyone in the room
Sorry, but I hope not. There is no room for bigotry and intolerance in the USA.
Hoffman didn't live or reside in the Congressional District he was running in. He took money from vested interests outside of the district. Maybe some credit should be given to the voters who recognized these things. Maybe he and his outside interests should have left resident Dede Scozzafava to run for the Republican party.
Lost in all the coverage of the results of this race is if you took the number of votes Dede still got (6976 votes) and gave them to Hoffman, he wins. So, I wouldn't say this was a huge victory for Obama and a big slap in the face of Republicans. Obama already had a huge majority in the house and this seat will be up for reelection next year anyway. It will go back to red next year. Hopefully the New York Republican party has learned it's lesson. It's not about the fringe right, it's about conservative prinicples and Dede lacked in that area.
It it is true that this is the first democrat elected in this district in over a hundred years, Club For Growth has accomplished quite a feat....
I don't think Doug Hoffman could win a Republican primary in this district after the events of this campaign. Turning the seat red again will fall to someone else.
I don't agree that we need more Hoffmans in this district- what we need is room for the Scozzafavas. we need pragmatists, not ideologues to work on our big problems.
Very well written article, Brian.
I think you should write a book about this election.
This country doesn't need more big spending, stimulus supporting, pro-union card check, higher taxing politicians, etc. politicians. Let alone that person be a Republican. That's who Dede is and that's why she was pushed out. She wasn't the right choice, Hoffman wasn't the right choice for that matter. But, I give the man credit for standing up and saying we don't need another Democrat pretending to be a Republican. I wish someone else had the guts to have run. We'll see what happens next year.
Any chance a number of the votes Dede got were absentee ballots sent in before she dropped out? I wonder how many of those 7000 votes would have moved to Hoffman? Just Monday morning quarterbacking.
This election turned into a referendum on Hoffman/Limbaugh/Beck/Hannity.
Owens was not a particularly strong candidate and DeDe was forced out, but the vote still went against Hoffman 55-45. If he can't win here, he can't win anywhere.
The national GOP has a major problem in that, over the past couple decades, the electorate has turned from 13% minority to 26% and a party (GOP) that appeals to white and older voters almost exclusively can't be happy about that.
And what is the minority percentage in NY23. 2.6% maybe.
In a straight up contest betwen Owens and DeDe, DeDe most likely would have won.
So what is the "victory" for the Club for Growth folks? With an enormous expenditure of money they succeeded in giving the 23rd to a Democrat for the first time in 150 years. As a Democrat myself, I welcome them to all of that type of victory they can buy.
Like was said before, if Dede came off the ballot, Hoffman probably would have taken most of the 7000 votes she got and won.
I like how Brian Mann is calling this a "blow to the tea party movement." (See northcountrynow.com for link) The tea party movement is a national movement that helped win New Jersey and Virginia. NY-23 has been sliding left for years, so it didn't surprise me to see Owens do well. But for Brian to paint a broad brush over the movement because of what happened in northern New York is laughable. Tell the people of Texas that the movement took a hit and see what it gets you. The 2010 elections will be the true test. We'll see how many blue dogs and moderates commit political suicide following "The Annointed One" over the cliff.
Maybe, just maybe those who voted for Dede were Republicans at heart that believe as she does in moderation and wanted still to be counted as Republican; moderate as the North Country Republican has historically been. Add them to the Democrat's count next time in addition to those who have already fled and what do you have?
As a one-time Republican, now Independent, I'd say the reason Doug lost was the same reason I left the GOP - the party was being steered way off course by blowhards from the far right.
I really felt that Doug never made a strong case on issues of major importance in this district, instead, he let himself be the conduit for the Anger Movement - anger over Anything Obama, anger over anything that suggests unleashed and unregulated capitalism might have drawbacks. He let the media gasbags direct his message - which ended up containing mostly half-truths (at best), instead of actual position statements.
I've already noticed the Hoffman apologists calling his campaign a Conservative Independent candidacy, not "Conservative Republican" they called it when blasting Dede Scozzafava.
I disagree with much of what Doug promoted during his campaign, but agree with one of his closing statements last night - that everybody needs to educate themselves and take an interest in how our country is run. Otherwise only the gasbags and blowhards will be heard.
Hoffman supporters got their wish, they wanted Dede to drop out of the race. How did that work for you?
If they had just shut up at that point they could have won. But no, they decided to call her names and have their "brain trust," recovering drug addict Rush Limbaugh, accuse her of " Beastiality."....That , combined with Hoffmans refusal to denounce such banal attacks, turned a sure win in to an upset win for Owens. The BLAP ( beck, limbaugh, armey, palin) team came through and did the impossible, turning victory into defeat.
"Conservatism isn't easy to sell to people used to having their hand out every day, getting it massaged with other peoples money."
Actually most Conservatives I know are some of the biggest recipients of Government money in my community. They went to SUNY, work government jobs, have family members in Medicare and Medicaid, and look forward to a Government retirement.
These are the people who 'Hate' the government. Does that make sense to you?
"Anon wrote- Actually most Conservatives I know are some of the biggest recipients of Government money in my community. They went to SUNY, work government jobs, have family members in Medicare and Medicaid, and look forward to a Government retirement.
These are the people who 'Hate' the government. Does that make sense to you?
November 5, 2009 8:29 AM"
Then you don't know any conservatives. You know CINOs- "Conservative In Name Only". There's nothing wrong with people paying their way through a SUNY school or working a Gov't job- they WORK. It's having your hand out and not giving anything back that's the problem.
National Crusade???
It is curious that Palin was not welcome in Virginia and new Jersey and did not appear in those states and a conservative Republican won each State.
She camopaigns for Hoffman in District 23 and he loses.
Tells you a lot.
There are indeed folks, private individuals, who have their hands out for $$, who take and take and give nothing back. But in the overall scheme of things, they account for a relatively small percent of our national spending. You want to examine welfare and where overwhelming vast sums of $$ disappear? Then please look at the welfare given to banks "too big to fail", and to multi-national corporations having their hands out for large sums of $$ for "supplying the army the tools of the trade" with outrageously overpriced goodies that the legitimate threats to National security do not call for.
Any money that is spent in trying to alleviate the suffering that is the lot of all too many people - in Apalachia, inner-cities, and, yes, even Northern New York is money well spent.
These are truly folks who are concerned with "bread and butter issues." Accept they can't afford the butter.
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