Did Bill Owens win NY-23?
The Syracuse Post-Standard is reporting today that the recount of the NY-23 election appears to be tightening substantially.
On election night, Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded, when it appeared that he was down by roughly 5,000 votes. Bill Owens, the Democrat, has since been sworn in and begun casting votes in Congress.
Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.With roughly 10,000 absentee ballots still to be tallied, it's certainly statistically possible for the outcome to be reversed. What would that mean?
This from John Conklin, spokesman for the New York State Board of Elections:
"The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed."
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 11/12/2009 10:35:00 AM
12 Comments
12 Comments:
With 10,000 votes to be counted, assuming 10% or so for DeDe --most were probably cast before she withdrew, Hoffman would need a bit more than a 2-1 margin over Owens in the remainder...unlikely, normally absentee ballots split about the same as the others
Fred's point is well taken, especially since Dede had 20% support when she dropped out. It was even higher 2 or 3 weeks out. But you never know. A Hoffman victory? I am sure Conservatives would take the wrong message and continue bump off moderates, essentially ceding the political center.
I'm not sure the absentee ballots left to be counted will have much of an impact on the numbers.
From what I've read elsewhere, the vast majority of these ballots were sent in before Hoffman got into the race.
That being said,66,698 citizens of the 23rd District made the right choice. But that is just my bias talking.
The math's a bit off here: About 10,200 absentee ballots were SENT OUT, not returned. As of election night, I think the number received was around 6,000, but Mr. Google couldn't help me on that one.
What is true is that the 20th precinct also had around 10,000 absentees sent out, and 6,000-some0odd ballots returned.
So assuming even a 70% return of absentees, or 7,000 absentee ballots, and taking out 10% for DeDe, or 700, that leaves 6,300 votes. Of those Hoffman would have to win about 4,700 (to Hoffman's roughly 1,600) for a victory. That's pretty close to 3-to-1.
Yes, he did.
Frank,
Hoffman was in the race from the start - immediately following the refusal by the GOP to give him the nomination. How could the "vast majority of these ballots" be cast before Hoffman got into the race or before the ballots were printed?
I would love to hear more from Rob Ryan about the whole campaign. Brian Mann's quote about the campaign being dead in the water before the Club of Growth came along was fascinating. It raises for me the whole question if Hoffman was on a downward slide after peaking. I think the case can be made that the Hoffman campaign was a media creation thanks to outside money and national party type pitchmen. He had become a political product. In the final days people looked more closely and may have decided there was not a lot of substance. The other quote today was over at THE WASHINTON INDEPENDENT. Ryan is quoted as saying, "While Ryan pointed out that Hoffman’s victory scenario always involved a three-way race with Owens and Scozzafava," This supports the idea it was Dede's leaving the race not her endorsement that turned the election. By withdrawing, Dede denied Hoffman what he needed most to win--a three way race. Apparently, the Hoffman campaign thought they could take this thing with only 40% of the vote. Not exactly a harbinger of some kind conservative renaissance.
Anon. wrote - "Hoffman was in race from start"
I'm sorry for that. Too much reading, not enough fact checking. I get on others for doing the same. Not meaning to mislead anyone. Not trying to be FOX News "lite."
PS. Dig today's headline in the Gouverneur Daily Times about Hoffman winning the race! The editor is a conservative/libertarian. 'Nuff said?
I'm pretty sure those missing absentee ballots were hijacked by ACORN.
"'m pretty sure those missing absentee ballots were hijacked by ACORN."
That is probably why Hoffman talked about it so much. It is a real problem here in the North Country. They are on every corner don't ya know.
I wonder if there will be an official investigation as to whether there was a concerted effort to rig this election. In the recounts so far there have been substantial shifts in results from Jefferson and Oswego counties. What about St. Lawrence county, the home of Dede the traitor. I don't find it inconceivable that election officials perhaps miffed at their hero's repudiation by Hoffmanites pulled some maneuvers. After all aren't these officials both (D) & (R).
There will be no investigation Mark. I doubt a recount will take place either.
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