Bill Owens wins 23rd; Hoffman concedes - historic election ends in upset
For the first time in more than a century, NY-23 is represented by a Democrat. Bill Owens is congressman-elect.
That's one more vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; one more vote for Barack Obama's health care plan.
This race had so many twists and turns that it left everyone -- myself included -- completely bamboozled.
My private prediction today? A Douglas Hoffman victory, maybe a big one. I was wrong. The polls were wrong.
More to the point, the Republican Party and the conservative movement writ large got it wrong.
The mood at Hoffman HQ in Saranac Lake was truly mournful: the sense here was of a crusade abruptly interrupted, a march on Washington cut short.
In his concession speech Hoffman urged his followers to fight on. But the simple fact is that in this very rural, traditionally Republican district voters chose a Democrat.
A year into the Obama presidency and rural northern New York chose a Democrat.
We'll be picking through the tea leaves of this one for some time, but three quick takeaways.
1. For thousands of people around the country this was Big Politics. It was Ideology and History. But for a lot of people here it was a story about Doug Hoffman, a local guy who wanted to make a difference.
2. Movement conservatives called this wrong. They mugged a moderate Republican -- they beat Dede Scozzafava handily -- but she slugged back. Her counterpunch may have cost Hoffman the race.
3. Bill Owens played the role of sane, friendly, grounded Democrat perfectly. Critics chided him for his lack of passion, his lack of spark. But in an election defined by histrionics and talk-show blather (not to mention way too many blog posts...) voters chose him.
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 11/04/2009 12:30:00 AM
18 Comments
18 Comments:
OBVIOUSLY, voters have just about had it, with the party of "NO."
Palin, Limbaugh, Hannity.... didn't seem to help, did they...??
THEY (the far-right wing-nuts) JUST DON'T GET IT...???!!!
brian, how do you know owens will vote for obama's health plan? just because he's a democrat doesn't men he'll support obama on every issue.
The fact that the "Republican" endorsed the Democrat brings out the truth of the matter. She was a RINO- Republican in name only. If it wasn't for her being on the ballot Hoffman would have won handily. She is only a moderate to Democrats. They love Rinos.
Brian, I hope you were trying to be ironic when you said Owens' election was "a vote for Pelosi." The line about Pelosi was Hoffman's campaign mantra, intended as a slur against Dedi's Republican credentials and against Owen as an independent thinker. Dedi's Republican credentials may now lie in tatters and Owens independence may yet need to be proved, but at best, it was an unfortunate choice of words to use Hoffman's line to lead your observations about the meaning of Owens' victory.
In any case, thanks for your efforts, on the fly, to make sense of this craziness. Maybe now we can all crawl out of our respective rabbit holes and enjoy the light of day again.
Mark Scarlett
sane and grounded - right on
Could it be that the squeaky wheel gets the grease (just as the loudmouth gets the attention) while the other wheels are running quietly along (the silent majority just may not be Republican any longer).
I was struck by the disparity of tone of the late night speeches of Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman. It doesn't bode well that the latter urges that the fight go on.
These times are far too important for fellow Americans to be aiming their rhetoric against one another rather than working together to solve the immense problems at hand.
Maybe try being part of the solution rather than part of the problem?
Talking about being part of the solution instead of part of the problem, apparently, New York 23 voters still haven't figured out that government is the problem and that makes Democrats, being a big government party, the problem.
And the biggest problem is that the Republicans machine up in that district haven't figured that out yet and threw a wrench in the race by choosing, as in hand picking, independent of the voters in the district, a liberal Democrat to run for the Republicans, that siphoned votes away from Hoffman. So, the problems are the Democrats and the Republicans who want to be like Democrats. And that is the reason Hoffman lost, not because of a rejection of Hoffman but because the Republican-wanna-be-Democrats mucked it up.
Just look at the governor elections and that proves there is a wholesale rejection of Republicans and conservatives.
Just look at the governor elections and that proves there is NOT a wholesale rejection of Republicans and conservatives I meant.
A victory for Bill, Dede, and sanity.
Mike
Dede has been criticized for backing Owens while Mr. Hoffman has been given a pass for his actions last summer when he first agreed to back Scozzafava then went out and ran as a Conservative. Character accounts and nothing good could come from Hoffman's own betrayal. Without the Hoffman mischief Dede would have won this going away and it would have remained a Republican seat. I am also tired of hearing about Dede's party affiliation. She is within mainstream of the moderate NYS Republican Party. We also have a Conservative Party in NYS. The real rinos are those "true" conservatives who register Republican (instead of Conservative) and then complain about moderates in a moderate party. Hoffman was the creation of outside money and outside personalities and independent minded residents said "Enough".
No big deal. It';s going to take time for people to figure out that big gov't is the problem, that continued erosion of our rights is a critical issue, that socialism and Marxism will fail here just as it has elsewhere. A Hoffman win would have been nice, but the 23rd District will be gerrymandered out of existence shortly anyway.
Owens will do EXACTLY what he's told by Pelosi and the rest of Democrat thug squad.
Anon. 5:28; Don't forget the eight years of big government conservatism under Bush 43. Budget deficits increased and he never asked for higher taxes to prosecute his wars. At this point people are rightfully skeptical of Republican claims of small government and fiscal responsibility. We have a courageous Democratic governor who stands virtually alone in his effort to tackle our financial problems. What does he get for being the "grown-up"--low poll numbers and no help from democrats or republicans.
I wonder if Mr. Hoffman might have had he little edge he needed if he would have walked the walk --- or if it would have hurt him.
If you want to cut government spending, you have to start saying that the north country survives on government handouts and that your constituents will have to tighten their belts.
"We have a courageous Democratic governor who stands virtually alone in his effort to tackle our financial problems. What does he get for being the "grown-up"--low poll numbers and no help from democrats or republicans.
November 4, 2009 6:35 AM"
Because he's not attacking the problem- a bloated, wasteful Gov't- he's trying to fund the darn thing on backs of taxpayers.
This election shows one thing very clearly. The radical right has the ability to lose an election that the Republican party would otherwise have won. It does not show that they can win an election that the Republican party would have otherwise lost. If they take this approach nationwide, it will be a death blow to the Republican party.
Anon 6:58 makes an interesting point. When you start to talk about gov't spending, how well would it play to an audience where there are so many on the gov't dole? People might start to connect that with their own paychecks. Who is the largest "employer" in the North Country? (Whether you work or not, from whom do you receive your check?)
Anon 10:40AM- Just catching on? Good for you. The Sainted FDR was the guy who figured that you could buoy votes with the taxpayers own dollars and it's been an American political tradition since the "New Deal" came about. The only we'll stop the slide into oblivion is by sticking to our guns and demanding a gradual withdrawal from the gov't teat.
Brian,
A big lesson here for you guys: Don't trust Politico and other "DC Insider" journalists.
Their conventional wisdom is often wrong.
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