What does Scozzafava's pull-out mean for Tuesday?
The first, obvious take-away from today's shocker of a decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava is that Doug Hoffman benefits enormously.
Scozzafava was harnessing a sizable 29% of the Republican vote, and only 11% of the Democratic vote.
You can do the math. If Hoffman and Owens harvest equal percentages from their respective columns, the Conservative gains a boost that's nearly three times as large.
There are some caveats, though. Some of the folks in both columns may be ideological drifters.
An example might be Republican women who have drifted into the moderate or even liberal territory now inhabited by Scozzafava.
Or, they might be Democratic men, who have drifted away from the Obama platform Bill Owens has embraced.
In short, anyone who hasn't yet "come home" to Hoffman or Owens might have pretty strong reasons not to do so.
But the basic math looks great for Hoffman.
One other development. The Democratic Get Out The Vote Effort powered by union-labor had been divided between Scozzafava (whose husband is a labor organizer) and Owens.
Union groups have been shifting over to the Democratic column through the day.
Similarly, Hoffman will now likely enjoy the full firepower of the GOP's GOTV machine. So, is that a wash? Hard to read.
Your thoughts? Post away below.
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 10/31/2009 02:49:00 PM
7 Comments
7 Comments:
how many of those scozzafava republicans are moderate-to-liberal republicans? And will they really back Hoffman who has been trashing her in the campaign? And will some of them continue to vote for for? What about voters who have already voted absentee? How about Owens's recent momentum (Hoffman was leading the Club for Growth poll and now Owens is leading in the more recent Siena poll)? And Hoffman's terrible debate performance?
Many women who are pro-choice that supported Scozzafava will probably now go with Owens. Same for those in favor a gay rights.
Hoffman didn't even participate in the NCPR debate and didn't give a good reason. What does that say for him?
I see Owens winning this race on Tuesday.
Union support has been part of the winning coalition in NY-23 for more than two decades. John McHugh had lots of union support. There are 33000 NYSUT members in NY-23. How many of those who backed Dede are likely to shift toward Hoffman. Darn few.
If 3:36 anon is right, there will be a lot recriminations. In a two way race with Owens Dede would have won this thing.
Brian - another factor is that the Siena poll showed Obama with 59% approval rating. What kind of disconnect would lead to a Hoffman victory?
Pro choice voters, unions, and those moderates who fear ultraconservative tryranny will vote for Owens. And Hoffman did so poorly in the debates one could not imagine him functioning effectively in congress.
Ultra-conservative tyranny...
That's just dumb.
Functioning effectively in Congress? What about Maxine Waters from LA? Christ, there's probably 100 idiots in the House, is one more in the minority going to make a difference?
What does it mean? Owens wins a narrow victory, and Hoffman is left holding the bag for losing the seat.
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