The Scozzafava Factor
I spoke this afternoon with Steven Greenberg at the Siena Research Institute. Like political wonks everywhere, he was flabbergasted by the NY-23 roller-coaster.
"While common wisdom would say that most Scozzafava voters would go with Hoffman, 1. I have no wisdom and 2. this race has been anything but common."Amen.
But Greenberg pointed out one other interesting factor: A lot of voters will likely still pull the lever for Dede Scozzafava.
"Scozzafava is still going to get a percentage of the vote on Tuesday, whether it'll be 5%, 10% or 15%. A lot of people have already voted absentee. A lot of people may not like the other candidates. Some people may not even know this new development has happened on Tuesday."Driving this weirdness may be the fact that a lot of artifacts of Scozzafava's campaign are still floating around out there.
When I go to political websites today (Saturday) I see a lot of pro-Scozzafava ads from her campaign and from the National Rifle Association.
There's no indication that she's pulled out. Call it a zombie campaign...that could shape Tuesday's outcome.
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 10/31/2009 06:32:00 PM
5 Comments
5 Comments:
The biggest "factor" may turn out her release of her supporters, esp.unions and their gotv efforts. Also, will there be a backlash among women over the trashing of dede and the lost opportunity for a congresswoman for large parts of the north country?
And this from political analyst Larry Sabato:
Prof. Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia posited an interesting hypothesis to me: That Scozzafava's remaining vote is not a conservative Republican base vote that would go to Hoffman, since voters on the right have already been coalescing around him, but she could actually be drawing more from the moderate Democrat Owens.
If this is true, Scozzafava's departure could mean a movement towards Owens....
Somehow I feel like I've just fallen down the rabbit's hole. Since when did NY-23 get this much national attention? People from out of state don't even realize this part of New York even exists. Its an amazing turn of events.
The national press can go away now and allow actual residents of NY-23 make their own decisions.
All of this is a very sad situation for the electorate. The fact that Hoffman, A MAN WHO DOES'NT EVEN LIVE IN THE 23RD, and doesn't fully understand the regional issues, has the potential to win on Tuesday is a real cause for concern.
Hoffman doesn't live vote in the district he's running for and can't even vote for himself!
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