Owens wins Week Nine - Third Weekly Win In A Row
OWENS
Fundraising numbers are out today and Democrat Bill Owens is pulling away, with far more money in the bank than opponents Dede Scozzafava (Republican) and Doug Hoffman (Conservative).
That's just one of the markers that give Owens the win for the week, his third In Box title in a row -- reflecting his campaign's clear momentum.
Owens also met this week briefly with President Barack Obama in New York City. But his biggest accomplishment remains pretty much the same: avoiding the Republican-Conservative bloodbath.
George Joseph, GOP chairman in Oneida County, has thrown in the towel:
“ Do I write off this election? Absolutely. Unless something – a revelation comes through regarding Hoffman, or there’s a change in events for the Democrats — the Democrat’s going to win.That’s how we lose elections.”
SCOZZAFAVA
Weeks don't get any worse than this for political campaigns. (Except, that is, in the week when they lose.)
Scozzafava allowed herself to be posed in front of Doug Hoffman's headquarters, backed by (swallowed by?) a sea of pro-Hoffman signs.
She had a strong message to deliver, that Hoffman needs to agree to some debates, but she looked weary and sounded muddled.
Meanwhile, her campaign called the cops on a conservative-press reporter from the Weekly Standard.
In the Politics For Dummies rulebook, there's a whole chapter on not calling the cops on reporters, especially ones who can help gin up an even bigger ideological backlash against your campaign.
Finally, Scozzafava appears to be trailing dead-last in the money race. Even if something big does break her way the last week of this race, it's hard to see how she can capitalize.
One positive note: Scozzafava is heading off on an RV whistestop tour. If she can get a good night's sleep and get back to her positive, friendly down-to-earth message (the one familiar to people in her district) she might begin to reconnect with voters.
HOFFMAN
Doug Hoffman is riding a rocket ship. He is (and I mean no snarkiness here) the new Sarah Palin. He's been featured in hagiographic terms on radio programs by Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Glenn Beck.
He's the favorite of conservative icons ranging from Steve Forbes to Palin to Dick Armey. And he also has plenty of money to spend the final couple of weeks.
The big question that remains for Hoffman is electability. He was ten points behind Bill Owens in the Siena poll released a week ago.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, no slouch when it comes to handicapping politics, still describes Scozzafava as the best bet to keep the seat out of Democratic hands, calling her the "practical choice."
In his blog today, Jimmy Vielkind wrestles with the question, Is there a Hoffman Scenario?
Vielkind doesn't answer the question, but he does say this:
The thing is that most people—myself included—have written off Hoffman as a mere spoiler. We shouldn't have assumed.I agree that Hoffman has transcended spoiler status. Scozzafava might well come in third. But can he beat Bill Owens?
Unless Scozzafava drops out, the math is very difficult indeed.
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 10/23/2009 12:08:00 PM
11 Comments
11 Comments:
I think it's time for Dede to drop out and not split the vote and allow Owens to win. Dede (in my opinion) is left of center and I know some in the GOP want that, but not conservatives. Since when are truly local issues what are discussed in Washington? You beat up Hoffman over his local issues knowledge. Ultimately, Owens or Hoffman aren't going to get a rooftop highway anyway.
Anon 2:21: "Since when are truly local issues what are discussed in Washington?"
Are you serious? How long have you lived in the North Country? Like it or not, this place survives on government money, and local issues like roads and military bases and Seaway projects (oh, and bridges)are huge. Knowing which ideas to promote and which aren't worthwhile is a responsibility of any federal representative. If you aren't versed in those issues, you shouldn't be running.
I read a Sienna Poll that showed only 9% of the supporters for Hoffman would vote for Dede if he were to drop out. My math tells me that means about a 2% increase in her numbers.
Her supporters were not polled on who they would vote for if she were to drop out.
Hoffman originally said he would support Dede after losing to her for the Republican candidacy. After support and money from outside groups he decided to run. I guess the question then is, who is Mr. Hoffman running to represent? and if not the people who live here, then perhaps the right thing to do is for him to drop out of the race since his base seems to be loyal to him and him only.
Owens wins week 9 for raising more money, meeting the President and getting out of the way (something he has done with great regularity and received a free pass for doing so). Are you serious? To me, Owens ranks 4th in a field of 3. I'd given it to Dede before Owens and she imploded in Lowville and Watertown this week, and still has no money. At least she's not hiding. That's how bad your Owens selection is. This week Hoffman made local and national media appearances, has improved his fundraising, collects impressive endorsements daily and has opened other offices. He, too, goes ahead of Owens.
Hoffman came off as an " Echo Chamber " for the well worn talking points of the Neo Conservative HeadQuarters. You had to look to see if Dick Armey was pulling a string behind his back like a puppet when they appeared together. He was so not up to the task of answering simple questions that Armey had to step in and try to provide cover for him.
Is it any surprise the Owens was able to make some "hay?"
I'm not convinced that Doug is as conservative as he claims to be. He has to come across as wing-nut crazy to get funds from the "club for growth" to run a campaign. If he had won the Republican line, I wonder how different his positions would be from those of Scozzafava.
"If he had won the Republican line"
Interesting. He does seem to be easily influenced. He originally stated he would support Dede. Wonder who got to him? and what did they offer in return?
I think our government has gone too hell in a hand basket real quick, I refuse too vote for the same people that took my seniors cost of living raise away from all seniors that elected them in office in the first place , I admit making that mistake once, but never again. I wont ever be that dumb again.
Why are all these conservatives running for office very wealthy men whose goal is to lower taxes on the wealthy?
" Anonymous said...
Why are all these conservatives running for office very wealthy men whose goal is to lower taxes on the wealthy?
October 26, 2009 1:41 PM"
Why are so many Democrats running actually rich people, in fact unbelievably wealthy people, who are portraying themselves as poor so they can raise taxes on all of us except their little clique?
Doug Hoffman is an ordinary citizen who believes in the American Way! we are so far from it, that it's bothersome to accept by the "American" citizen. By far he's not a millionaire - he's a self-made man, who was raised by a single mother - he married, studied and received his CPA degree, and has worked hard in
bringing up a family of three children= teaching them all how to grow w/community respect, also financially. If anyone should "pull out" of the race it should be Dede Scozzafava!
Doug Hoffman has support from throught the USA and I thank God for his decision to run for office. We are so lucky he has chosen to run for office
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