Doug Hoffman, a true third party candidate

From the opening days of the NY-23 race, Lake Placid accountant Doug Hoffman has argued that he is the true Republican in this race.

"Forget the Republican party bosses," he advised. "I believe the voters in the Republican Party are looking for a candidate like me."

The media -- including myself -- generally accepted the notion that his candidacy reflected a deep divide within the Republican movement.

But the two independent polls conducted so far contradict (or at least temper) this portrait of the race.

In fact, Hoffman is winning only a little more than a quarter of Republicans -- 27%.

That's a whopping twenty points behind Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, a landslide of difference.

Hoffman is only faring 9 points better among Republicans than Democrat Bill Owens, who's attracting 19% of the GOP vote.

What's more, as the race has continued, Hoffman's share of the GOP vote hasn't grown much, if at all, when compared to the earlier Siena Research Institute survey.

Hoffman's strength, such as it is, comes among independent voters. He's splitting that part of the electorate pretty much evenly with Owens (35% for Hoffman, 32% for Owens).

As Newt Gingrich has pointed out, Scozzafava was nominated after a thorough and fairly open candidate search (one which Hoffman initially praised) conducted by local North Country residents.

"There were four local nominating meetings," Gingrich said. "All four picked [Scozzafava]. None placed the conservative candidate in the top three – not a one."

Since the Republican-Conservative battle erupted, some GOP committee chairs have grumbled about Scozzafava's selection.

But in theory, they settled on the candidate who they deemed the best match for the district and its brand of Republicanism. (As Gingrich observed, this isn't rural Georgia.)

In an essay published today in the New York Post -- not, note, in a local North Country newspaper --Hofman wrote, "I didn't leave the Republican Party, the party left me."

To be sure, Scozzafava is a liberal Republican.

But the truth is that the North Country GOP has long stood well to the left of the national conservative movement.

John McHugh, who recently stepped aside as congressman after decades of service, was a Republican moderate who battled frequently with the national GOP leadership.

McHugh was pro-choice, an environmental activist who voted for President Obama's economic stimulus and joined the Democratic administration as Army Secretary.

The three Republicans who represent the North Country in the state Assembly all share Scozzafava's position supporting same-sex marriage. (To be fair, the region's state Senators do not.)

My point?

Hoffman has run an astonishing campaign, attracting broad support from ultra-conservative groups across the country.

He has embraced (and been embraced by) the new "virtual" conservative movement, a loose amalgamation of talk show hosts, tea party organizers, media outlets, and single-issue activists.

He has also demonstrated significant appeal among right-of-center voters in the district who have rejected (or at least distanced themselves) from the two major parties.

As such, he is best understood as a true third-party Conservative candidate, with only limited appeal (so far) among the district's Republican voters.

That's a perfectly respectable thing to be. Third party candidates play important roles, representing people disaffected with the major parties and their agendas.

More and more, Doug Hoffman's candidacy resembles that of Ross Perot, whose decision to run for president in 1992 reshaped American politics for a decade.

The question remaining, of course, is whether this path can actually lead Doug Hoffman to an upset victory over both the Republican and the Democrat.

We'll know the answer in less than ten days.