DailyKos/Research 2000: Owens leads, Hoffman surging, Scozzafava fades
It's official -- or at least as official as opinion polling can make it.
Lake Placid Conservative Doug Hoffman has pushed ahead of Republican Dede Scozzafava -- and very nearly tied Democrat Bill Owens.
Here are the numbers: Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%.
The good news for Owens is that he continues to gain ground among rank-and-file Democrats, picking up 64% of that tally.
It's also worth noting that a chunk of Scozzafava's anemic showing comes from Democrats -- not Republicans -- who seem to be shifting away from her.
That said, for the first time Doug Hoffman leads among Republicans, capturing 41% of that vote compared with her 34% showing.
He also expanded his dominance of the independent vote, picking up 47% of that group, compared with Owens' 28%.
Here's the DailyKos's take on their own poll:
If Scozzafava's fade continues, Hoffman will win this thing. Democratic chances hinge on halting the Hoffman surge, which is why the DCCC has trained its guns on the conservative party candidate.My questions:
1. Is there a floor to Dede Scozzafava's support? She's very popular in her chunk of the North Country. Will that group of Republicans abandon her, too, and shift to Hoffman?
2. Will nervous Democrats shift from Scozzafava to Owens, shoring him up a bit?
3. Will Democratic attacks on Hoffman -- launched very late in the game -- have any impact on his surge? Or did the Dems overlook him too long?
4. And what about those 14% who are still undecided?
Labels: election09
posted by Brian Mann @ 10/29/2009 01:44:00 PM
6 Comments
6 Comments:
It will be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows. A couple things at work here. One is that Hoffman may have peaked. The real interesting data is who the second choice of DS voters are. I suspect most of the remaining undecided are trying to choose between DS and BH. If this is the case the effect of the polls may be to cause a break towards Owens. Finally, the advertising in the mail is killing each of these candidates. I know of people who were wrestling with the choice between Owens and Scozzafava, and her recent mailing of being against "socialized medicine" is killing her. Will be an interesting finish.
Just got the mail and found 3 attack mailings from Dede. Now she says a vote for Hoffman is a vote for Owens.
I'm disappointed Dede. That's pretty lame.
Not sure how you can come to the conclusion that Hoffman may have peaked. My guess is that as more true conservatives hear about Hoffman, he will continue to raise. I hope anywawy, that would send a message to both parties!!
I would feel better if Doug Hoffman actually lived in the district and knew about any issues in the district.
Guess I'll just have to trust Glen Beck. He always knows what's good for me.
I think it shows that maybe the district isn't nearly as conservative as some people suggest. If you accept the right-wing argument that Hoffman's a conservative and the other two are "liberals," then it means the "liberals" are outpolling the conservative 54-33.
Ooops, 54-32.
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