Could GOTV decide NY-23?

The latest poll shows Doug Hoffman, the Conservative from Lake Placid, surging. He appears to have eclipsed Republican Dede Scozzafava.

Democrat Bill Owens still technically leads, by a narrow margin, but it's a statistical dead heat.

But a big question remaining is: Who will actually go to the polls and cast a ballot?

Both of the major parties have solid Get Out The Vote machines established in the 23rd district.

Democrats under St. Lawrence County's June O'Neill have established a winning formula of students, labor groups and progressive activists. They'll be hustling for Bill Owens on Tuesday.

Republicans have a much older, more deeply rooted network of local government leaders and county chairmen that can send armies of voters to the polls. In theory, they'll be pushing for Dede Scozzafava.

The question is -- how does Doug Hoffman compete?

Has the tea party-town hall movement he represents established enough of a grassroots network (or enough raw passion) to counter the major parties' GOTV effort?

One of Hoffman's campaign HQs is located near my house and I see a fair number of cars in the parking lot late into the evening.

That's a good sign that his supporters know that kabillions of 30-second TV ads won't do the trick.

They'll also need plenty of hustle on Tuesday. That means building up voter rolls, phone lists, organizing car shuttles, all the drudgery that wins elections.

With four full days of campaigning to go, it's possible that Hoffman's momentum will carry him beyond reach, making this GOTV question moot.

But if the Conservative is nearing his peak -- capturing most of the chunk of voters interested in his small-government traditionalist message -- we could go into Tuesday with a dead tie.

And that means turn-out could decide the whole shooting match.