Week five to Owens by default

A fairly bland week out on the campaign trail. The three campaigns all launched TV spots, with a fairly normal mix of good, bad and ugly.

Republican Dede Scozzafava's campaign put in a solid, ground-game-building sort of week. But her decent showing was set back by two factors.

The first was a TV and radio spot aired in the district by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The general take on the ad? Negative, snarky and, well, sort of corny. View the anti-Owens ad here. And here's a review from Jude Seymour at the Watertown Daily Times.

The other thing dragging on Scozzafava is the fact that Doug Hoffman seems to be hanging in there, making a real race of it.

Hoffman is also focusing all his firepower on the Republican, not the Democrat. Here's his TV ad, comparing Scozzafava to fake elvis...

Conservative Doug Hoffman also logged a decent week, drawing support from the conservative Club for Growth and grabbing an endorsement from the Police Benevolent Association of the New York State Troopers.

As mentioned, he's also staying solidly in the race: Every week he sticks around and looks viable, Hoffman gains a little more credibility. That's no small thing for a 3rd-party candidate.

But the win goes to Democrat Bill Owens. Here's why:

After a quiet start, Owens is doing what newly-minted politicians have to do. That means logging a lot of miles, building name recognition and introducing himself in a positive way.

His first big ad does that, projecting a pro-military, pro-business image that should play well in the district.

But his biggest advantage is something we've already touched on: There's a dog-fight going on between his two opponents, Scozzafava and Hoffman.

Every week that Owens can plug away at wooing voters while the Republican and Conservative pummel each other (or, more accurately, that Hoffman pummels Scozzafava) the Democrats gain.

One big question remains for Owens: Can he bring home the liberal base of his own adopted party?

If he can unify Democrats, while Republicans and Conservatives split the center-right vote, we could see the GOP lose another Northeastern district...