First poll shows Scozzafava leads close House special election

Dede Scozzafava leads the congressional race by 10 points, according to a new poll released today by the Hoffman campaign.

The Republican is receiving 30% of the vote, including those who are leaning toward voting for her.

Bill Owens, the Democrat, is in second place with 20%.

Doug Hoffman, the Conservative from Lake Placid, follows with 19%.

The Hoffman campaign released the numbers today, arguing that they show a neck-to-neck race.

They argue that Scozzafava, a name-brand Republican in much of the 23rd district, is underperforming.

The fact that nearly a third of the likely voters are undecided suggests real volatility here.

In a conference call today, pollster John McLaughlin (who conducted the poll on behalf of Hoffman) indicated that social issues -- abortion, primarily -- could be a significant factor int he race.

This poll assumes a vote on November 3rd. In fact, the election still hasn't been scheduled.