Rothenberg predicts Dems will gain in New York, says Gillibrand favored to win

Non-partisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg lists two Republican congressional districts in New York state as "Democrat favored" in November's election.

Two other New York House districts held by the GOP are rated as toss-ups that are tilting Republican.

If Rothenberg is correct, the Empire state could well account for 20-40% of all Democratic gains in the House nationwide.

The once mighty party of Pataki and D'Amato has fallen hard -- and they've fallen fast.

For the record, Rothenberg also says Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand is favored to win the 20th CD match-up with Essex County Republican Sandy Treadwell.

Gillibrand dodges political bullet by voting No on Wall Street bailout

Time will tell whether Democratic congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand's "No" vote was right or wrong from a policy perspective.

If we're mired in a Great Depression by Christmas, she might well have cause to regret her decision.

If Congress reaches a better financial rescue package, she'll win huge points for patience and principle.

In the meantime, what's certain is that the vote was politically astute.

Once again, Gillibrand has deftly denied Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell a powerful campaign club.

In an interview with NCPR, Gillibrand was careful to say that her decision wasn't based on politics -- though she did note that the bailout measure was wildly unpopular in her district.

But if Gillibrand had voted Yes, you can bet that Treadwell would have been up with a ferocious campaign ad within 24 hours.

It would have also been a rallying cry for Treadwell during the upcoming debates.

This moment symbolizes the challenge that Treadwell has faced all summer: finding high-profile issues where he and the Democrat actually disagree.

Both candidates are pro-choice; both describe themselves as essentially post-partisan and centrist; both opposed the $700 billion bailout.

Treadwell has worked to stake out some distance on tax cuts (he's signed a pledge to oppose ALL tax increases), the war in Iraq, and ethics (specifically l'affaire Charlie Rangel).

Given the absence of polling, it's unclear whether he's gained much traction.

If Gillibrand had voted with her party on the bailout, however, the daylight between their positions would have been much more visible to average voters.

In the end, Treadwell may still craft a compelling argument that will bring home Republican voters in the district.

He needs to rally thousands of men and women who've been defecting more often of late to Democratic candidates.

This week's developments make his job that much harder.

Renzi attacks Aubertine with help of controversial ad man

The Albany Times-Union is reporting this morning that Republican challenger David Renzi is going negative in a new TV ad aimed at Democratic incumbent, state Senator Darrel Aubertine.

What makes this blog-worthy is that Renzi -- and New York's GOP generally -- is making use of the talents of Scott Howell.

Howell is the political advertising guru who created the controversial and racially charged ad that helped defeat Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford, a Democrat and an African American.

Here's a link to Renzi's new ad, which features a chorus of children "thanking" Aubertine for his votes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRCDXFSYVv8

Note the bit where the ad suggests that Aubertine has favored New York City over his own district?

I've blogged about that small town-vs.-the-big-city Republican strategy in an earlier post.

McHugh: Bailout was the only game In town

Congressman John McHugh has told the Watertown Daily Times that the failed bailout plan struck a good balance.

He also didn't put much stock in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plan to take another bite of the apple.

Here's the key quote in Marc Heller's write-up:

"You just can't get everything you want," Mr. McHugh said. "I think they put out the only
plan that had a chance of passage."

Financial crisis meets landmark election

What a mash-up these weeks have been. By any measure, this is one of the most historic elections America has seen.

We'll elect an African American president, or a woman as vice president.

We'll come to the end of one of the most controversial presidencies in modern times.

We'll also likely see Democratic control of Congress solidified, following a long era of Republican control.

Throw onto that fire a massive, systemic meltdown of the U.S. economy and you have yesterday's House vote, where the Wall Street bailout went down in flames.

Democracy ain't pretty, but it sure is interesting.

So here's a prediction. To avoid voter wrath, lawmakers will pass a couple of smaller, stop-gap spending measures, designed to prop up banks and other key institutions through January.

The message to Wall Street: Hang in there, help is on the way.

When the new President takes office, he and Congress will approve something big, something painful...and something really unpopular.

In Gillibrand-Treadwell race, bipartisan opposition to bailout

Kirsten Gillibrand and Sandy Treadwell don't agree on much, but the Democratic incumbent and her Republican challenger issued nearly identical statements today condemning the $700 billion dollar Wall Street bailout.

Gillibrand voted "No" on the measure.

"While I am fully aware of the seriousness of the financial problems in the market, I do not believe the bill Congress voted on today was the right approach. The bill has insufficient oversight and protections and does not address the root causes of the crisis or the poor economy."

Treadwell also issued a statement, arguing that the bipartisan measure lacked "taxpayer protections and would have allowed Wall Street executives to continue to make millions while taxpayers foot the bill."

In her statement, Gillibrand writes at length about the principles that led her to vote against the bailout.

But the decision also gives the Democrat some prized political cover in the final weeks of what looks to be a bruising campaign.

In casting her Nay vote, Gillibrand bucked her party's leadership -- including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- on one of the most important measures taken up by Congress in the last decade.

Gillibrand votes NO, McHugh votes YES

According to the House Clerk's tally, North Country Democratic Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand voted AGAINST the $700 billion dollar bailout.

The move apparently came in defiance of her party's leadership -- and despite warnings about the possible impacts of failure on the US economy.

North Country Republican Congresswoman John McHugh voted in favor of the measure, joining a minority of his party in the House who supported the controversial bailout.

Democratic Congressman Mike Arcuri, who represents the Mohawk Valley and a small sliver of the North Country, also voted in favor of the measure.

$700 billion dollar bailout FAILS

The bailout vote went down hard. Updates soon.

Does the bailout come too late for the North Country?

If Washington lawmakers are right, the $700 billion bailout will maintain solvency in the country's financial markets and keep our major financial institutions afloat.

But in the short-to-mid-term, Wall Street profits are still likely to suffer huge hits. Which means that 20% of New York state's budget could be essentially zeroed out.

That spells trouble for rural parts of New York.

"We have a lot of money coming to our areas from state and federal governments," said Chuck Fluharty, with the Rural Policy Research Institute, in an interview today with North Country Public Radio's David Sommerstein.

"And I think those are also going to decline over time."

"Over time" could mean...now.

Already, state officials are talking about hiring freezes and service consolidation at key North Country agencies, including the Department of Correctional Services and the Adirondack Park Agency.

Those measures will mean fewer jobs, fewer paychecks.

The next hammer to drop could be state pass-through money that goes to local governments and school districts.

"It's worrisome," Watertown School Superintendent Terry Fralick told NCPR's Jonathan Brown.

"From all the reports, it seems almost inevitable that [the cuts] will be significant. We've already had discussions as to our priorities, how can we do the same with less funding. It's going to be very difficult."

Fewer dollars mean fewer programs for kids, but schools in the North Country are also the region's single largest employer.

The region's hospitals and nursing homes (also big employers) rely heavily on state and federal reimbursements.

A vast array of regional non-profits and NGOs (including North Country Public Radio) also look to the government for a part of their funding base.

Naturally, other regions of New York will be hit hard by the loss of tax revenue.

But because of their relatively robust private-sector economies, New York City, the Hudson Valley and Western New York could weather the storm better.

Paterson rides crisis wave to second term?

Governor David Paterson hasn't been exactly flawless of late -- he did call Albany lawmakers a bunch of "blood suckers" -- but his handling of the Wall Street crisis has drawn raves.

In an interview with NCPR, Stephen Acquario, head of the New York State Association of Counties, described Paterson as prescient.

"Some people described him as alarmist or Mr. Negative," Acquario said. "But to his credit, as chief steward he had an obligation to sound those alarms. And with the action on Wall Street this week, I think he was dead-on right."

"Governor Paterson was doing an excellent job of managing...the fiscal crisis," chimed in New York Business Council President Ken Adams, in an interview with Albany correspondent Karen DeWitt.

Not so many months ago, New York's political class considered Paterson a lightweight, a man known more for his quips than his leadership style.

It was widely speculated that he would step aside after filling out Governor Eliot Spitzer's first term.

But this crisis has given Paterson the opportunity to step clear of Spitzer's shadow. So far, he's managed it gracefully.

McHugh, Gillibrand face "crap sandwich"

John Boehner, leader of the House Republicans, reportedly called the Wall Street bailout a "crap sandwich."

But it also appears that he plans to vote for the $700 billion deal.

With a vote pending, it seems certain that North Country congressmembers Kirsten Gillibrand (D) and John McHugh (R) will both vote in favor of the unpopular deal.

The next question is whether it will haunt them on the campaign trail.

McHugh faces a truly long-shot challenge, so the bailout isn't likely to affect his chances in November.

Gillibrand on the other hand faces a high-profile challenge from Republican Sandy Treadwell.

Can Treadwell capitalize on public dissatisfaction with Wall Street welfare?

It won't be easy. So far, the two appear to agree -- in broad terms -- that the bailout was necessary.

Here's the key passage from a story reported by WNYT, Channel-13.

"I'm just concerned and hope this isn't a sweetheart deal for the people who got us into this mess," [Treadwell} said.

Treadwell thinks stepping in is necessary to prevent further problems, but that change must come on the heels of the cash.

"Special interests have so much control over Washington and special interests fought hard for as little oversight as possible," Treadwell said.

The Small Town Governor faces big test in first debate

Sarah Palin came out of nowhere (read: rural America) like a rocket, boosting John McCain's poll numbers and delivering a knockout speech at the Republican National Convention.

But in the weeks that have followed, she's drawn increasing criticism from reporters for avoiding press conferences.

Her two big outings -- with anchors Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric -- weren't big hits, even among some Republicans.

Here's a key passage from Politico, the on-line political journal:

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, a former Palin supporter, says the vice
presidential nominee should step aside. Kathryn Jean Lopez, writing for the
conservative National Review, says “that’s not a crazy suggestion” and that
“something’s gotta change.” Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, says Palin’s
recent CBS appearance isn’t disqualifying but is certainly alarming. “You can’t
continue to have interviews like that and not take on water.”

Governor Palin's debate against Democratic Senator Joe Biden offers a chance at redemption and more.

If she proves herself capable and bright and charismatic -- attributes supporters say she has in plenty -- Palin could reverse the narrative and score big.

If she stumbles again, Palin could prove to be a serious liability for McCain going forward.

Two possible implications: McCain could see some of his big lead in rural America dimished; in the future, politicians may be more leery of calling on relatively untested small-town leaders.

Can upstate Republicans still run against The City?

For decades, Upstate Republicans have based a big part of their message on opposition to New York City.

The GOP's candidates still work hard to tie their Democratic opponents (be they Kirsten Gillibrand or Darrel Aubertine) to pols and party flacks from the Five Boroughs.

Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has issued a flurry of press releases this fall linking Gillibrand to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel.

Rangel faces a slough of criticism for ethics lapses, from Republicans and independent editorial page writers, a fact that Treadwell's campaign has tried to keep front and center.

Do voters in the 20th Congressional District care?

And does the old Upstate-Downstate rivalry still have the kind of edge that made the North Country a dependable power base for Republicans?

I think an argument can be made that the impact has been blunted.

Part of the problem may be the efforts made by downstate Republicans to build connections in the region. Governor David Paterson has drawn generally strong reviews in the region.

Senators Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton have both worked to establish a presence here.

I'd argue that New York City also has a less toxic image, thanks (ironically) to a series of Republican mayors.

In the final equation, it's hard to imagine that the GOP can rebuild its infrastructure around an anti-urban message -- in one of the most urban- and suburban states in the nation.

Times-Union says Treadwell ad "misrepresents the facts"

The Albany Times-Union has unveiled a new ad-watch feature, that aims to fact check various regional campaign ads.

The article slams the campaign of Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell for claiming that incumbent Democratic congresswoman Kirtsen Gillibrand "voted to impose the largest tax increase in history."

According to the spot: "Gillibrand's tax hike would cost your family an extra $2,900 a year."

The ad claims that Gillibrnad supports an end to President George Bush's massive tax cuts, enacted in 2001.

In fact, she proposes to maintain tax cuts aimed at middle class families.

The T-U's conclusion: "Treadwell's ad misrepresents the facts."

The Times-Union tries to balance its criticism (clumsily, I think) by reviewing a Gillibrand ad that grumbles about negative campaigning.

"With all of America's challenges," Gillibrand says, "you'd think Sandy Treadwell could do better than a false, negative campaign."

Gillibrand then goes on to call Treadwell's ads a "personal attack."

"It is a bit of a mismatched response," writes the T-U's Irene Jay Liu. "Treadwell's ad, though misleading, can hardly be characterized as a 'personal attack.'"

Treadwell agreed to two debates, a third in the North Country possible

Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has agreed to hold two debates with Democratic Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand.

A Treadwell spokesman said in an email that he has agreed to meet on October 21st and again on October 23rd.

The sessions will be sponsored by the Albany Times-Union and the Poughkeepsie Journal.

According to Peter Constantakes negotiations for a third debate, proposed by the Glens Falls Post-Star, are still underway. That session, on October 28th, would be the only event scheduled in the North Country.

Kirsten Gillibrand had already agreed to all three debates.

The debate schedule comes as the two campaigns have stepped up their criticisms of one-another.

In a new TV ad, Treadwell accuses Gillibrand of voting for a tax increase.

Gillibrand’s new ad accuses Treadwell of running a “false, negative campaign.”

So far there have been no public polls to indicate how close this race is. It’s expected to be one of the most expensive in the country.

Poll shows Republican grip on state Senate slipping

New York's Republican Party holds a precarious one-seat majority in the state Senate.

A new poll out today from the Siena Research Institute shows that Democrats are poised to take control after November.

Siena polled six key Senate districts that will likely decide the matter.

Two new Democratic incumbents -- elected in special elections -- had been seen as the most likely Republican pick-ups. (They include North Country Senator Darrel Aubertine.)

But Siena finds that both Dems are leading by comfortable margins over their Republican challengers, despite heavy GOP spending.

Meanwhile, one Republican incumbent -- Sen. Serph Maltese from Queens -- is locked in a 42-42% tie with Democratic challenger Joseph Addabbo.

Worse yet for Republicans, the fight for an open district seat in Erie County seems to be tipping ever so slightly toward Democrat Joseph Mesi, who holds a 2% lead over Republican Michael Ranzenhofer.

So with just weeks to go before the elections, the scorecard looks like this:

Republicans are vulnerable in two state Senate districts -- and seem to have zero opportunity to make up ground already lost to the Democrats.

The GOP has zero margin for error here. One lost Senate Seat and New York's entire political system will be controlled by the Democratic Party.

Siena Poll: Aubertine holds 20 point lead over Renzi

Today's poll from the Siena Research Institue in Loudonville, New York, shows state Senator Darrel Aubertine -- the freshman North Country Democrat -- holding a commanding lead over challenger David Renzi.

These are stunning numbers, given the fact that state Republicans have outspent their Democratic counterparts by 7-to-1 margins.

The exact numbers: Aubertine 51%, Renzi 31%.

(The same poll shows Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama in the Republican-heavy Senate district by a paltry 4%.)

The survey raises serious questions about the GOP's ability to hold control of the state Senate after November. More on that in a later blog.

Here's a link to Siena:

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19628

New York's historic tipping point

Election Day 2008 will be historic on a lot of levels. We'll see the country's first African American president sworn into office -- or the nation's first female vice president.

But we could also see tectonic shifts here at home -- in New York state and the North Country.

The biggest question that will be answered is control of the state Senate, the last bastion of power for New York's Republican Party.

The GOP currently holds a one-seat majority: it doesn't get much slimmer than that. If Republicans lose control in November, it could trigger an upheaval that will echo throughout New York politics.

Here are some possible outcomes:

1. Without a power base in Albany, Republicans will struggle to raise money. That will make a come-back far more difficult.

2. After the 2010 Census, Democrats will control the entire redistricting process. That could mean...

3. A realignment of state Senate boundaries, breaking up "safe" Republican districts like the one held by North Country lawmaker Betty Little. If Democrats redraw the lines, Little could be forced to compete for votes in Democratic strongholds.

4. A realignment of Congressional districts that could lock in Democratic majorities in New York's 20th Congressional District. Less likely, but possible, would be the break-up of the North Country district (NY 23) long held by Republican John McHugh.

5. If Democrats hold their North Country gains (in the state Senate and Congress), Republicans could see their rural base erode even further. That makes winning ANY statewide office very difficult.

6. If Democrats are in firm control in Albany, look for a new focus on progressive policies that don't cost taxpayer money, including the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Property taxes loom as Wall Street sinks

A lot of New York counties are already gearing up to boost property taxes to compensate for lost revenue from Albany.

(Meanwhile, Essex County seems to be backing away from a proposed sales tax increase.)

The New York Times is reporting that New York City is considering a 7% hike to property taxes.

School districts may be forced to follow suit if education aid is slashed.

The issue will be front and center at the New York State Association of Counties meeting this week in Niagara Falls.

The session ends on Friday with a public forum on New York's proposed school property tax cap.

Gut check for North Country Democrats?

The Watertown Daily Times is reporting that Republicans are spending big in an effort to unseat freshman Senator Darrel Aubertine.

"Senate Republicans have dropped $710,902 in the last 100 days to reclaim a north country seat that was theirs for more than a century," writes Jude Seymour, "outpacing their Democratic counterparts in contributions by more than 8 to 1."

The Aubertine race comes at a time when Democrats have staged something of a revolution in the North Country.

Aubertine's special election victory last winter was historic, as was Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand's win in the 20th congressional district in 2006.

Were those elections part of a trend -- echoing the decline of the GOP around New York state -- or were they aberrations?

Republicans are clearly fighting hard to prove that it was a one-off glitch and that the North Country remains solid conservative territory.

We'll have a much clearer picture on November 5th.

For Aubertine and Renzi, it's poll time

The Albany Times-Union political blog (see link below) is reporting this morning that Siena plans to release a half-dozen state Senate polls on Wednesday morning.

One of the surveys will apparently target the race between Democratic Senator Darrel Aubertine and Republican challenger David Renzi.

Siena Research Institute is non-partisan and widely respected. Tomorrow's numbers should give us a good benchmark for a key North Country Race.

It will also give us a snapshot of the fight for control of the state Senate.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/

For Gillibrand-Treadwell, big bucks, little drama

The Kirsten Gillibrand-Sandy Treadwell race was slotted early as one of the biggest congressional contests in the country.

Gillibrand, a freshman Democrat, won her first term in a Republican-heavy district following a juicy scandal that brought down John Sweeney.

She immediately began building a huge war chest and is seen as a formidable incumbent.

(Congressional Quarterly rates the district "Likely Democrat.")

But Sandy Treadwell, the Republican from Essex County, has been a fixture in upstate politics for decades -- and brought hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money to the campaign.

So far, the much-touted face-off has produced wall-to-wall campaign ads on TV and radio, but very little actual excitement.

Media coverage has been tepid, infrequent, and dull. How come?

1. It's still unclear how close this race will be. There are a lot more Republicans in the 20th CD than Democrats. With John McCain at the top of the ticket, the formula is in place for a strong GOP challenge.

But I can't find a single poll or analysis suggesting that this is actually a tight contest. (If anybody finds any credible numbers out there, please share.)

2. So far, both sides are playing nice. Treadwell has promised to keep the campaign focused on issues, not mudslinging. Gillibrand hasn't said much at all about Treadwell. The debates might add a little zing, but they're scheduled pretty late in the game.

3. Neither candidate has been particularly colorful (at least so far). Does "clean" politics have to be "dull" politics?

On balance, you have to say that an under-the-radar campaign benefits the incumbent. It will be interesting to see if the temperature of this race rises as summer gives way to the fall campaign.

Rangel under fire, with echoes in the North Country

New York City congressman Charlie Rangel, a Democrat, is an institution in New York politics -- but in recent months that institution has lost some of its luster.

"Charlie Rangel must be a centipede," wrote the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in a lead editorial, "given how many shoes have been dropping regarding his personal finances."

From rent controlled apartments to unpaid taxes on a Caribbean villa, "Rangel's moral claim to any top leadership post became debatable..."

Rangel has met repeatedly with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but there's no sign that he'll lose his chairmanship of the influential Ways and Means Committee.

(That's the committee that hands out the money.)

Rangel's woes come at a time when Republicans are eager to blur the lines between their own plague of scandals and Democratic behavior.

So far, Rangel's indiscretions don't appear to rise to the Abramoffian heights of the GOP, but it could be problematic for colleagues like Kirsten Gillibrand.

The freshman Democratic congresswoman is fighting for a second term in New York's 20th district.

Challenger Sandy Treadwell has worked hard to link her with Rangel.

"I once again call on you to return campaign contributions received from or solicited by Congressman Rangel," Treadwell wrote in a recent public letter to Gillibrand, "and urge you to call on him to step aside as Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.”

Gillibrand's spokesperson has said that she supports an ethics investigation into Rangel's behavior but refuses to prejudge the outcome. Her staff has also pointed to Gillibrand's record of supporting open-government measures.

So far, the issue hasn't ignited or caught much media attention. But it's likely to get fresh play when the two candidates hold their first debate.

What if it's an Obama-McCain tie?

One of the weirdest aspects of our very weird Electoral College system is that it's possible for the candidates to...tie.

And while that's an okay outcome for soccer fans, it would likely be a disaster in American politics.

Winning the presidency requires 270 electoral college votes.

But one of my favorite, wonky-politics websites -- FiveThirtyEight.com
-- is now reporting that there's a 3.4% chance that John McCain and Barack Obama will end the long campaign in a deadlock.

That means both candidates hitting the finish line with exactly 269 electoral college votes.

The likeliest scenario (granted, not VERY likely) would go like this: "Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire."

Bingo - all tied up.

Now, according to the U.S. Constitution, an electoral college tie is broken by Congress. Because we're almost certain to have a Democratic majority, the victory would almost certainly go to Barack Obama.

But there's one more wrinkle.

In most of the photo-finish scenarios "modeled" by the wonks at FiveThirtyEight.com, John McCain has won the popular vote.

So.

It's just possible that our next president will have been chosen by a Democratic Congress, despite a tie-score in the Electoral College, and a popular vote that went to the Republican.

Is that any worse than the 2000 election, which was essentially decided by a Republican-appointed U.S. Supreme Court?

Probably not, but that was no picnic either. Let's hope that come November, American voters will hop off the fence they've been straddling and make a firm decision, one way or the other.

McHugh agrees to debate Oot

North Country Congressman John McHugh, a Republican, has been less than eager to debate Democratic challenger Mike Oot.

He was especially resistant to a "town hall" style format proposed by Mountain Lake PBS. A spokesman for McHugh said there was a concern that the debate could get "unruly."

Freelance reporter Jacob Resneck, from Saranac Lake, is now confirming that McHugh has agreed "in principle" to three debates.

Oot, an attorney, is little-known in the North Country and comes from Madison County. He's promising to help end the war in Iraq and supports universal healthcare.

To learn more about Oot's positions, go here:

www.mikeootforcongress.org/

Congressional Quarterly, the respected Washington newspaper, rates the district as "safe" Republican.

Gillibrand (and baby) featured in Newsweek

Democratic congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is drawing some high-profile coverage, not for her politics but for her family life.

Gillibrand, who represents NY's 20th CD, is locked in a tough race with Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell.

But - as Newsweek points out - she took time off from the campaign trail in May to give birth to Henry Nelson Gillibrand.

Gillibrand is profiled as one of a dozen or so famous women who've had babies in their 40s.

See the photo spread here:

www.newsweek.com/id/157180

How big is the presidential battleground?

One of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's visions for the Democratic Party was an aggressive push into "red state" America.

He spent millions of dollars rebuilding the Democratic infrastructure in states like North Dakota and Montana.

The gambit looked like a loser until Democrats stormed back into power in Congress, after fielding solid, well-funded candidates in districts where they had been marginalized.

So how about this year's presidential race?

Some pundits -- including NPR's political guru Ken Rudin -- say no.

"But here we are," Rudin writes, "with 48 days to go, and the presidential election is once again focused on a very familiar list of states, just about the same from four years ago. The magic number of 270 electoral votes will be culled from these states."

I actually think the political map is a lot more flexible than it was in 2000 or 2004.

Virginia is certainly in play for Democrats, an undeniable shift.

Obama is also highly competitive in Colorado. An argument can even be made that he's pushed his way into contention in Indiana and North Carolina.

McCain, meanwhile, has pushed almost to par in the upper Midwest, making a race of it in states that were solidly Democratic: Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There's little doubt that on election night, a lot of attention will be focused once again on Florida and Ohio.

But unless one or the other candidate breaks open a big lead, the final outcome could easily rest in a new state -- like, say, Nevada.

One final thought: Rudin lists a total of 14 states that could be in play right up to election day.

That large a playing field will be expensive and will strain even the best-funded campaign. Which means that the fundraising totals for McCain and Obama will play a big role in who becomes the next president.

America's regional divide

My chief preoccupations is the gap between rural and urban political values.

Cities tend to be more "liberal" and Democratic. Small towns tend to be "conservative" and more Republican-leaning.

One natural side-effect of the tension between city and country folks is that regions with more big cities -- say, the East -- tend to vote differently than more small-town centered regions.

A case in point this election cycle is the South, our most rural region.

If the southern states were electing a president, John McCain would win in a landslide. According to Gallup, he's currently winning 54% of the vote, compared with Barack Obama's 39%.

Compare that with the standings in the East, where Obama leads 51-40%.

That's a huge gap in sensibilities.

In fact, Obama leads handily in every region of the country, except the South. Midwestern voters favor the Democrat by 48-42% margins; and in the far West, Obama is almost as popular as in the East.

A lot of ink has been spilled about strategies for reconciling these regional divides.

But it seems clear that for years to come Southern voters will be supporting very different politicians from the rest of the country.

McCain's stock rises and plummets in New York

Has the bubble burst?

In a mercurial ride that mirrored Wall Street, John McCain jumped to within five points of Barack Obama in New York state this week, a poll that drew headlines around the country.

But the latest Rasmussen survey puts the Republican down by 13%. Was it something he said?

In fact, the spike reflects the mercurial nature of polling itself. Results can skew wildly, depending on the methodology, the timing, and a thousand other details.

Looking at a much broader aggregate of polling data, it's clear that McCain did enjoy a slight post-convention warming-trend across the Northeast.

But the GOP's fortunes in this part of the U.S. remain pretty gloomy.

Over the course of the campaign, Democrat Barack Obama has led McCain consistently in the East by an average of 11% points. Today the margin stands at 51% Obama to 40% McCain.

In American politics, that's a landslide.

It will take a lot more than Sarah Palin to reverse the Republican malaise in this part of the country.

Treadwell campaign cries "bad faith" on debates

A spokesman for Sandy Treadwell says the Republican hasn't yet agreed to the three debates unveiled last week by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand's campaign.

Peter Constantakes, Treadwell's spokesman, says a meeting had been scheduled for Monday of this week to negotiate a debate schedule.

He says Gillibrand's team unveiled the three-debate line-up unilaterally, a move that Constantakes described as "bad faith."

The Treadwell campaign says they weren't even informed about one of the debates.

Sandy Treadwell has been pushing for a 10-debate schedule and wants a "town hall" style format.

The Gillibrand campaign says they simply announced that they had accepted three invitations from major media outlets.

Spokeswoman Jill Greco says the format for the three events were established by the hosts.

Essex County's Stu Brody steps down from Dem Rural Conference

Stu Brody has been a fixture in New York politics for years, with his big cowboy hat and his fondness for poking at big-city Democrats.

His rural conference in Lake Placid in 2004 drew the big Democratic contenders, including Hillary Clinton and the eventual nominee John Kerry.

Now Brody is stepping down

In a statement, Brody admits to feuding with Eliot Spitzer (he says Spitzer launched a political "attack" at him, which Brody "survived") and claims as his biggest victory the election of Darryl Aubertine, "the first Democrat elected in an all rural Senate district in forty years."

Brody's campaign mirrored -- at a state level -- Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. Has it been effective?

It seems the Republican Party's rural upstate base has been eroded somewhat. But the next big
test will come in November, when small-town voters will decide some big congressional races.

Slated to follow Brody is Irene Stein, chairwoman of the Tompkins County Democratic Committee in Ithaca.

McCain and Palin push into blue America

When the presidential campaign started, Republicans were on the defensive and Democrats were talking about pushing beyond their usual comfort zones.

In theory, that meant targeting states like Colorado, Virginia, and possibly even Montana or North Dakota.

That effort isn't dead: Barack Obama is still running dead-even with John McCain in Colorado and Virginia, states that have voted Republican in recent years.

But John McCain has also reversed the game-plan, pushing deep into Obama's territory.

With the help of Sarah Palin's surprising appeal, the GOP ticket has fought its way to par in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

Republicans are only five points down in New York state.

Critics question the McCain campaign's tactics for achieving those results: negative campaigning that even some conservatives have cringed at.

But the truth is that the go-ugly message has worked, even in states that were considered hostile to the Republican message.

AP: McCain trails in NY by 5 points

According to the AP, a new Siena Research Institute poll puts Republican John McCain just five points behind Democrat Barack Obama.

That's a 13 point drop for the Democratic ticket since June.

No one seriously thinks McCain will capture the Empire state. If things get that bad for Obama, then we're talking epic landslide.

But the shift could affect close congressional races in the state, including the Gillibrand-Treadwell match-up.

McCain's brand has always been a pretty good fit with New York's moderate-to-center-left voters.

If his coattails turn out to be big enough, McCain might give the GOP one more chance to rebuild in New York.

Gillibrand and Treadwell will debate three times

Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand has agreed to three debates, all landing in the final couple of weeks of the campaign.

The closest to the North Country will be co-sponsored by the Glens Falls Post-Star on October 28th. (See list below.)

Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell has been arguing for more debates, demanding that Gillibrand agree to at least ten events - one for each county in the hotly contested congressional district.

Treadwell points out that Gillibrand made the same demand in 2006 when she was the challenger.

He's right. But it's fair to point out that Gillibrand asked for more debates when she was trailing sharply in the polls (before incumbent Republican John Sweeney imploded in a rash of scandals).

In the absence of good polling data for this race, Treadwell's demand suggests that he's lagging and needs as much face time with his opponent as possible.

Here's the list:

Oct. 21: sponsored by the Poughkeepsie Journal and the Greater Southern Dutchess Chamber
of Commerce

Oct. 23: sponsored by the Times Union and PBS (WMHT)

Oct. 28: sponsored by the Post Star and NBC 13 (WNYT)

Joe Klein on Palin's small-town myth

In the latest Time magazine, Joe Klein comes closer than anybody to grasping Sarah Palin's mythic appeal.

Here's the nut of the piece. Find more of my thoughts down below...

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We haven't been a nation of small towns for nearly a century. It is the suburbanites and city dwellers who do the fighting and hourly-wage work now, and the corporations who grow our food. But Palin's embrace of small-town values is where her hold on the national imagination begins.

She embodies the most basic American myth — Jefferson's yeoman farmer, the fantasia of rural righteousness — updated in a crucial way: now Mom works too. Palin's story stands with one foot squarely in the nostalgia for small-town America and the other in the new middle-class reality. She brings home the bacon, raises the kids — with a significant assist from Mr. Mom — hunts moose and looks great in the process. I can't imagine a more powerful, or current, American Dream.

########

In a rather beautiful piece of writing, Klein suggests that Obama's own life story, while compelling, is "not yet mythologized" and reflects the values of "a country that is struggling to be born — a multiracial country whose greatest cultural and economic strength is its diversity."

Indeed. This is the heart of America's culture war. Urban progressives believe in a multi-racial democracy, modern and complex and cosmopolitan, but essentially fair.

Conservatives, on the other hand, generally believe that traditionalism -- the values of our small town past -- will serve us best going forward.

For the moment, it seems that the comforting vision of Palin is outweighing the hopeful change of Obama.

Obama's red state sag

Back in the primary season, one of the big arguments in favor of Barack Obama was that he was a uniter, somebody who could step past the divisiveness of the Clinton-Bush years.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, was seen as more divisive, a "polarizing" figure.

Evidence for Obama's "red state" appeal seemed to build as he racked up victories in states like Kansas and Montana.

There was a lot of brave talk of "Obama" Republicans, or Obamacans.

The truth is, America just doesn't work like that anymore. There's a lot of love out there, but when it comes to politics we ARE polarized.

Obama was able to win Democratic primaries in red states in large part because they were caucuses, where his highly motivated activists stole a march on Clinton's more traditional top-down campaign, or because they were states with large African American populations.

(I think Clinton was so over-confident that she and her campaign managers never bothered to build organizations in states like Nebraska and South Dakota. They assumed she would lock up the primary in big states like California and New York.)

Obama's primary success never translated into popularity among Republicans. Even before Sarah Palin came on board, 90% of registered Republicans were sticking with John McCain.

That was greater loyalty than Obama was inspiring among Democrats.

In recent polling, there's very little sign that Obama has been able to "expand the battleground" in a meaningful way.

Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are seriously in play this year, but that reflects broader demographic trends -- not a unique appeal for Obama.

States like Georgia and North Carolina, meanwhile, seem almost as out of reach for Democrats this year as they were in 2000 and 2004.

Where does that leave Obama? He's marching the same uncomfortable road that Al Gore and John Kerry traveled.

He'll have to excite and motivate his base of support, rallying African Americans, Hispanics, young people, and women in unprecedented numbers.

And he'll have to accomplish that cheerleading on some hostile terrain:

Ohio will play a big role in choosing our next president and so will Florida. At the moment, both states are trending toward John McCain.

A question from Raquette Lake

Mitch Edelstein writes from Raquette Lake:

"I'd like to hear your comments on the contrast between the US Presidential race and the very short Canadian election. What a contrast! I know ours is too long. Is theirs too short?"

Great question. Generally, I'm a fan of America's protracted, exhausting political campaigns. I'm of the "more is more" school of politics. (Some people also want a longer football season, so there's no accounting for taste.)

And here's the big irony: this year our campaign is actually really short.

What do I mean by that?

I mean that we have only about eight weeks from the time the two tickets are set and the parties have had their conventions to really hear from the candidates.

With the surprise Sarah Palin pick, that just doesn't feel long enough for a good vetting, from the press or the public.

Other nations just don't see politics as the full-contact, everybody-gets-in-on-the-act scrum that Americans do. Which is fine.

But for us, politics is a big part of culture. (And the other way around...)

A final thought. The trick this season for Canadian politicians will be getting heard over the American hubbub.

A lot of Canadians will be paying closer attention to our presidential race than their own election. Which may be one reason why the elections were called now...

Q: Why do small towns beat big cities in presidential elections?

A: They vote.

Okay, it's more complicated than that, but not MUCH more complicated.

Democrats are inevitably flummoxed by the fact that their politicians often lose, while the Republican candidates favored by rural Americans prevail.

Why should small town folks -- who tend to favor personalities like George W. Bush and Sarah Palin -- get their way?

It's a complicated question, but the biggest single answer is...democracy. Yup, it's that tricky little step in the process called voting.

Rural folks tend to be whiter (a lot whiter) and older (increasingly, a LOT older) than their urban and suburban neighbors.

And since white seniors tend to be the most responsible voters, they wield disproportionate clout.

Let me put it another way.

If you have ten million urbanites, but only three million of them vote, those other seven million citizens are effectively invisible politically.

Doesn't matter how many protest marches they attend or how many petitions they sign. Without casting a vote, they don't register.

There are signs that Democratic constituencies in urban America -- blacks, Hispanics and young people -- are getting better at putting their ballots where their mouths are.

Will it be enough to lift Barack Obama over John McCain?

History says no. Again and again, center-left politicians have tried to rally the under-29 crowd and the Hispanic vote, to no avail.

Obama's people say technology and his unique appeal will change all that; they also point to higher-than-expected turnout in 2006 and in this year's primary.

But with Palin on the GOP ticket, my bet is that rural folks will once again get busy and march to the polls in the kind of numbers that put the downtown crowd to shame.

The bridge to nowhere or business as usual?

The bridge to nowhere makes fascinating politics, because it's a symbol and also a symptom.

Symbol because John McCain used the infamous bridge proposed for Ketchikan, Alaska, as exhibit A in his attack on earmarks and pork-barrel projects.

Symptom because projects like the bridge are a cornerstone of rural life.

The facts are pretty clear: Sarah Palin, as a candidate and a governor, supported the bridge. She pushed Alaska's congressional delegation to hoover up as much Federal pork as possible.

That's what small-town politicians do.

Urban politicos do the same, but in the cities and suburbs there's also a lot of private-sector investment.

Increasingly, small towns like Ketchikan, Alaska (and Wasilla) look to only one place for their capital dollars, for everything from business start-ups to infrastructure projects: taxpayers.

Here in the North Country, state and federal taxpayers shell out for hundreds of projects that are arguably just as frivolous as Ketchikan's bridge.

Is it really the government's job to finance tourist trains, carousels, and convention centers? The answer, so far, has been a resounding Yes.

Palin's denial of her role in the bridge to nowhere echoes a common tension in small towns: disdain for Washington, concealing a secret addiction to state and Federal goodies.

I interview local politicians all the time who demand lower taxes and insist that they are firm fiscal conservatives.

But they regularly demand far more state and federal money than their community pays in taxes.

In the end, Palin's bold statements -- "thanks but no thanks" and "if we want a bridge we'll build it ourselves" -- are really part of a much larger myth that small town America cherishes.

Alaskans -- just like Adirondackers -- see themselves as independent, bootstrapping communities.

But it turns out both places rely on government hand-outs (and jobs and investment) to a much greater degree than their more urban neighbors.

McCain once drew fire from North Country GOP - McHugh

The Watertown Times is remembering the bad old days between North Country Republicans and John McCain.

The money quote:

"I just deeply worry as I look to the future about what kind of era we would get with that kind of administration," Mr. McHugh said eight years ago of the prospect of McCain as president. "He has a record here that, as a Northern New Yorker, troubles me deeply."

McHugh acknowledged that he still has issues with McCain, but in an interview with the Watertown paper, he joined in praising Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Read full Watertown Times article.

Rural America is beating Barack Obama

The Wall Street Journal has a new poll out this morning that shows the devastating power of small towns for Democrats.

Barack Obama is beating John McCain in cities and suburbs -- by margins of 7-8%. But in rural America, McCain leads by a whopping 20%.

That kind of landslide can tip the balance. So far in this race, it means that Obama is eking out a tie. The Journal's poll puts Obama up by 1% nationally.

Those stunningly poor numbers come despite a huge effort by Obama, in money and time spent, trying to woo back rural voters.

Palin countered all of that.

The survey also shows McCain winning 49% of the blue collar vote, to Obama's 40% - but my guess is that this line, too, reflects the profound rural tilt.

A huge number of those working-class guys (and women) are in small towns, where cultural loyalty -- and race -- trump the kind of issues Obama is pushing.

Is it a race in the 24th CD?

Probably not.

Congressional Quarterly still rates freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri as the likely victor in a district that was once a Republican stronghold.

(The district includes a sliver of the North Country, with voters in the Old Forge area having a say in this race's outcome.)

The lack of a strong counter-attack in the 24th CD has been seen as a symptom of the GOP's malaise in upstate New York.

But there are some flutters of life in businessman Richard Hanna's push. He's donated more than $300,000 to his campaign and fund-raised another $236,000.

Still, Arcuri has almost twice as much cash-on-hand and Hanna comes very late to the game.

He'll need a big push from the GOP's two remaining icons, George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani, to stand a chance.

The danger for Republicans is that the Democratic brand could come to feel, well, sort of familiar in Upstate communities.

Which is dangerous. Without a landslide showing north and west of Albany, Republicans face an uphill battle claiming ANY statewide office.

How will Palin play in NY's 20th CD?

Right out of the gate, Republican Sandy Treadwell invited Sarah Palin to campaign for him in the 20th congressional district, even though the Alaska governor is to the right of Treadwell on some key social issues.

Abortion's the biggy - Treadwell is pro-choice, while Palin opposes abortion even in cases of incest and rape.

Even if she doesn't come here (and it's unlikely she will) Palin could have two very different impacts on this race:

1. Palin could alienate moderate voters, especially Independents and suburban women, who make up a growing chunk of the 2oth's electorate.

Not a good thing for Treadwell, who has described himself as essentially post-partisan.

2. Palin could inspire Republicans -- especially pro-life voters -- and give them a reason to "come home" to their party.

To win a second term, Gillibrand (also pro-choice) HAS to keep some of those Republicans, especially blue collar Roman Catholic voters, in her corner.

The fall surge

Hi folks. Over the next eight weeks, I'll be keeping a political blog - focusing on the presidential race, rural issues, the 20th congressional district match-up (D Kirsten Gillibrand v. R Sandy Treadwell), and whatever else hits the radar screen. Send emails with any thoughts or reactions to brian@ncpr.org.