Wednesday, October 1, 2008

A nearly tied vote in November could trigger a landslide

I hate the Electoral College system that we use to elect our presidents. It's unfair, antiquated, and doesn't accurately reflect the will of Americans.

In really bad years, you can get a result like the one in 2000. Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote and lost the election. In a democracy, that should be a wake-up call.

This year, Republicans could well get a taste of that same bitter medicine.

Polls show that Barak Obama and John McCain are effectively tied in opinion polls -- with one or the other taking a 5% point lead on any given day.

Even the wildest swings barely bring us to a 50-40% split (one poll currently has Obama up by a 51-41 margin).

But it's increasingly possible that Barak Obama could win the Electoral College tally by a landslide.

If Obama squeaks out wins in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, he could walk away with 333 Electoral College votes -- to McCain's 205.

One problem is the winner-take-all nature of most state contests. States that are essentially evenly divided give ALL their votes to one or the other candidate.

That's as inaccurate in Texas (where 38% of voters prefer Obama) as it is in New York (where roughly 40% of voters prefer McCain).

The bottom line? An election should serve as a kind of mirror to a community, reflecting its values, its demographics, its ambitions.

But the Electoral College is, at best, a funhouse mirror.

1 Comments:

At October 3, 2008 10:20 PM , Blogger Jim said...

The problem with leaving it up to the states whether the EC is split or winner-take-all is that it is possible get the right combination of the two systems so that the election is effectively stacked in favor of one party or the other. That was why there was a ballot initiative in California by Republicans to split the EC vote there. If we are to continue the EC it should be proportional in every state although I think we should eliminate the EC altogether.

 

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