For McCain, a make-or-break debate

The Palin-Biden debate drew huge television audiences, but in many ways tonight's town-hall style debate (you can listen on NCPR at 9pm) has far more potential for drama.

John McCain has very few opportunities to turn this race around. Poll numbers are grim for the Republican.

The latest surveys suggest that he's flat-out losing Florida and Virginia. If those trends hold, the game's over.

The Republican absolutely needs both of those states to win.

Which means that McCain needs to force a big moment tonight. He's already begun a new onslaught on Barack Obama's character, hoping to convince Americans that the Democrat is untested and, well, a little scary.

It's a dangerous strategy.

McCain himself has already changed gears so many times (promising a clean, high-road campaign, for example, then going "street") that he runs the risk of sounding hysterical.

There's also the risk of tipping over into racially tinged language. The Associated Press has already dinged Sarah Palin for scuffing that line.

And when you try to force big, game-changing moments at debates, it's possible to flop hard.

But theoretically the town-hall style format is a good one for McCain. And playing it safe just doesn't seem to be an option anymore.

So...tune in tonight at 9pm and send your comments to let me know if you think the debate lived up to the hype...